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  1. #826
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    Spurs are in a great position when it comes to Poeltl. They only need to trade him if the deal is right. Gotta have an unprotected pick 2024 or later or two lightly protected picks (top 10 then top 8 picks). If not, they can keep him and sign and trade him next year if they get Wembanyama. Best case scenario is the Spurs have a 14% chance getting him anyway. Which then leaves the Spurs with a 86% chance that they could use him coming back. I really don’t see any free agents I’d be interested in next year and these bad contracts are kinda running out in the league. Gotta use that cap space for something. Might as well be Poeltl.

    But please, please learn how to hit a free throw

  2. #827
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    Spurs are in a great position when it comes to Poeltl. They only need to trade him if the deal is right. Gotta have an unprotected pick 2024 or later or two lightly protected picks (top 10 then top 8 picks). If not, they can keep him and sign and trade him next year if they get Wembanyama. Best case scenario is the Spurs have a 14% chance getting him anyway. Which then leaves the Spurs with a 86% chance that they could use him coming back. I really don’t see any free agents I’d be interested in next year and these bad contracts are kinda running out in the league. Gotta use that cap space for something. Might as well be Poeltl.

    But please, please learn how to hit a free throw
    There is absolutely no chance you get an unprotected FRP for 1yr of Jak. You are unlikely to get two protected FRPs at this point but if you can without taking on a bad contract you absolutely hit that bid immediately.

    The reason no contract extension talks are in place is because everyone knows he will garner more next year when he becomes a free agent. Jak has more power than we do at this point. Move him now or pay up later.

    Our draft positioning is irrelevant other than moving him sooner gives us a better shot at a higher pick in 2023.

  3. #828
    Remember Cherokee Parks The Truth #6's Avatar
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    Unprotected FRPs sound like a new buzz word that GMs are getting fixated on. Unprotected is great, but is that enough of a sticking point to trade Yak? I mean, an UFRP from a great team seems worse than a lightly protected FRP from a bad team. Of course if the picks are way down the road then the more unprotected the better. But just saying I don’t recall this obsession over absolute UFRP until a few months ago.

  4. #829
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    So we have four out of five starters from the end of last season and people are fooling themselves if they think there isn’t any type of continuity that will take place.

    And that’s not saying that those same four will be the starters over the course of next season. Just saying that there will be some continuity.

  5. #830
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    Unprotected FRPs sound like a new buzz word that GMs are getting fixated on. Unprotected is great, but is that enough of a sticking point to trade Yak? I mean, an UFRP from a great team seems worse than a lightly protected FRP from a bad team. Of course if the picks are way down the road then the more unprotected the better. But just saying I don’t recall this obsession over absolute UFRP until a few months ago.

    that's because the spurs barely made deals until recently. It definitely matters in terms of overall value

  6. #831
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    Unprotected FRPs sound like a new buzz word that GMs are getting fixated on. Unprotected is great, but is that enough of a sticking point to trade Yak? I mean, an UFRP from a great team seems worse than a lightly protected FRP from a bad team. Of course if the picks are way down the road then the more unprotected the better. But just saying I don’t recall this obsession over absolute UFRP until a few months ago.
    The dream is to use them for a third star without salvaging your future. Open a championship window like MIL did. That is the goal for UFRP this far in the future.

  7. #832
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    The issue I have with UFRPs are that they don’t necessarily mean high picks they are just unprotected in case it does turn out to be one.

    The reality is that very few times have we seen an unprotected pick turning into a good pick (the lakers pick this year being an exception, and it was protected to begin with just that not protected high enough) and in any given draft there are maybe three or four players who are real actual blue chippers.

    The spurs definitely got their draft picks worth as they turned late first founders like Derrick white and DJM into good trading prospects but the reality is are we really expecting to get players better than them in return bin future picks? DJM, being a borderline allstar is likely one of the best three or four players in any given draft, in fact in his draft class, he’s at worst number seven and at best third best player, even after taking the injuries of players like Simmons and Murray into account. In Derrick whites year, there were maybe four or five players better than him and most of those were late lottery players (Mitc , bam). There were some ghastly players drafted in the high lottery for both teams.

    Point is, UFRPs would:
    A) require the pick to be in the unprotected range in the first place to mean anything
    B) high enough in the draft to really be worth anything (top five or so) so the opposition has to either really suck or be incredibly (Un)lucky. A player who you can trade for an UFRP should keep the other team from being that bad to begin with so this is literally like playing the lottery.
    C) be able to draft properly to get a decent enough player to replace the player you traded away for that pick in the fist place.
    D) be able to develop that player into a player who was good enough to replace the player you traded away in the first place, along with a few years of lost time with that player
    E) have the pick actually stick around afterwards.

    The biggest upside with trading away a player for picks is to tank, whether you get an UFRP back is like playing the lottery. It means a lot to the team giving up the pick but not as much to the receiver.

    Back to portal, zero chance any team can give a UFRP for him, I’d be happy with a top ten protected pick.

  8. #833
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    There is absolutely no chance you get an unprotected FRP for 1yr of Jak. You are unlikely to get two protected FRPs at this point but if you can without taking on a bad contract you absolutely hit that bid immediately.

    The reason no contract extension talks are in place is because everyone knows he will garner more next year when he becomes a free agent. Jak has more power than we do at this point. Move him now or pay up later.

    Our draft positioning is irrelevant other than moving him sooner gives us a better shot at a higher pick in 2023.
    Agree to disagree I guess. Murray got us two unprotected picks, a pick swap, & CHA pick. I don’t see how Poeltl is worth less than a third of what Murray got us. Spurs just have to be patient plus not a ton of teams will be able to sign him next year anyway. Maybe Utah would be interested but only if they miss out on Wembanyama.

    Also like someone else said, an unprotected pick doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be a great pick. Gotta hope that franchise sees a bright future like Atlanta did/does.

    I have no problem paying Poeltl since there's is a 70-80% chance he’ll be better than what we get in return in a trade anyway.

    With the right rotations we can easily lose a ton of games this year and keep Poeltl.

  9. #834
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    The issue I have with UFRPs are that they don’t necessarily mean high picks they are just unprotected in case it does turn out to be one.

    The reality is that very few times have we seen an unprotected pick turning into a good pick (the lakers pick this year being an exception, and it was protected to begin with just that not protected high enough) and in any given draft there are maybe three or four players who are real actual blue chippers.

    The spurs definitely got their draft picks worth as they turned late first founders like Derrick white and DJM into good trading prospects but the reality is are we really expecting to get players better than them in return bin future picks? DJM, being a borderline allstar is likely one of the best three or four players in any given draft, in fact in his draft class, he’s at worst number seven and at best third best player, even after taking the injuries of players like Simmons and Murray into account. In Derrick whites year, there were maybe four or five players better than him and most of those were late lottery players (Mitc , bam). There were some ghastly players drafted in the high lottery for both teams.

    Point is, UFRPs would:
    A) require the pick to be in the unprotected range in the first place to mean anything
    B) high enough in the draft to really be worth anything (top five or so) so the opposition has to either really suck or be incredibly (Un)lucky. A player who you can trade for an UFRP should keep the other team from being that bad to begin with so this is literally like playing the lottery.
    C) be able to draft properly to get a decent enough player to replace the player you traded away for that pick in the fist place.
    D) be able to develop that player into a player who was good enough to replace the player you traded away in the first place, along with a few years of lost time with that player
    E) have the pick actually stick around afterwards.

    The biggest upside with trading away a player for picks is to tank, whether you get an UFRP back is like playing the lottery. It means a lot to the team giving up the pick but not as much to the receiver.

    Back to portal, zero chance any team can give a UFRP for him, I’d be happy with a top ten protected pick.
    Since 2016. Tatum, Brown, Jamal Murray, Mikal Bridges, Franz Wagner , Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Williams.

  10. #835
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    ^ Funny enough 2 of those are from LAL others are big markets.

  11. #836
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    Since 2016. Tatum, Brown, Jamal Murray, Mikal Bridges, Franz Wagner , Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Williams.
    Which brings it back to working out. Other than Tatum, brown and Murray, I’d say most people wouldn’t trade any of the other for DJM. And even Murray is a maybe due to his injury history.

  12. #837
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    Which brings it back to working out. Other than Tatum, brown and Murray, I’d say most people wouldn’t trade any of the other for DJM. And even Murray is a maybe due to his injury history.
    You are drastically over simplifying a trade.

  13. #838
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Which brings it back to working out. Other than Tatum, brown and Murray, I’d say most people wouldn’t trade any of the other for DJM. And even Murray is a maybe due to his injury history.
    Ah, but we got TWO UFRPs and one UFRP swap for DJ. It’s not a 1 to 1 trade. Most of the NBA must hate the ATL FO right now for ramping up the prices of borderline All Stars.

    Also, other than Bridges, the others aren’t developed enough to say yay or nay yet.

  14. #839
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    You are drastically over simplifying a trade.
    Explain.

  15. #840
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    Ah, but we got TWO UFRPs and one UFRP swap for DJ. It’s not a 1 to 1 trade. Most of the NBA must hate the ATL FO right now for ramping up the prices of borderline All Stars.

    Also, other than Bridges, the others aren’t developed enough to say yay or nay yet.
    Fair point. I generally am not a fan of trade by volume. The team with the best player generally wins a trade. The thing is that the picks would potentially end up as a high pick, and even if that is the case would potentially lead to good players who require heavy investments.

    I’m not comparing UFRP against nothing, I’m coming them agains PFRP. Unless a pick ended up in the top 6 or 7 ( generally where the protection kicks in) then it’s not much different.

  16. #841
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    Fair point. I generally am not a fan of trade by volume. The team with the best player generally wins a trade. The thing is that the picks would potentially end up as a high pick, and even if that is the case would potentially lead to good players who require heavy investments.

    I’m not comparing UFRP against nothing, I’m coming them agains PFRP. Unless a pick ended up in the top 6 or 7 ( generally where the protection kicks in) then it’s not much different.
    Protection usually kicks in lottery so later. There is more strategy to this than you make out.

  17. #842
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Fair point. I generally am not a fan of trade by volume. The team with the best player generally wins a trade. The thing is that the picks would potentially end up as a high pick, and even if that is the case would potentially lead to good players who require heavy investments.

    I’m not comparing UFRP against nothing, I’m coming them agains PFRP. Unless a pick ended up in the top 6 or 7 ( generally where the protection kicks in) then it’s not much different.
    UFRPs are all identical. They convey in the draft year they’re for, no delays, chance for huge upside. FRPs are not. Next year’s CHA pick is 1-16,1-14,1-14, about as protected as a pick gets these days. The CHI 2025 pick is better by the virtue of being more lightly protected, 1-10,1-8,1-8. It could be a mid lottery pick. That’s pretty damn good as protected picks go.

    The big difference is that you have a slim chance to hit a home run with a UFRP or pick swap. You could win the lottery. Never happens with a pick with any protections at all. We could lose out on the 2028 BOS pick swap, because it’s #1 pick protected.

  18. #843
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    UFRPs are all identical. They convey in the draft year they’re for, no delays, chance for huge upside. FRPs are not. Next year’s CHA pick is 1-16,1-14,1-14, about as protected as a pick gets these days. The CHI 2025 pick is better by the virtue of being more lightly protected, 1-10,1-8,1-8. It could be a mid lottery pick. That’s pretty damn good as protected picks go.

    The big difference is that you have a slim chance to hit a home run with a UFRP or pick swap. You could win the lottery. Never happens with a pick with any protections at all. We could lose out on the 2028 BOS pick swap, because it’s #1 pick protected.

    this really is kind of obvious

  19. #844
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    this really is kind of obvious
    She’s not getting it.

  20. #845
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    We can't let the acronym "UFRP" become a thing. We just can't.

  21. #846
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    We can't let the acronym "UFRP" become a thing. We just can't.
    It’s literally our only hope at this point. UFRP’s to the mooooon

  22. #847
    Wolf Ruvinskis tonight...you's Avatar
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    It’s literally our only hope at this point. UFRP’s to the mooooon
    Lol. That made me want to watch some MST3K.

  23. #848
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    Protection usually kicks in lottery so later. There is more strategy to this than you make out.
    The issue is that the strategy is to get as many as you can. The idea is to “time” when the other team starts to be bad but it’s more luck than anything. Would anyone think the lakers would yield a lottery pick this year in 2020 when they won the championship, or even at the beginning of this year when they were one of the favourites? People can see the nets falling in 2016 but to the extent they did? Not really. If most people can see it then the nets wouldn’t have done it.

  24. #849
    Drive for Five! ambchang's Avatar
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    UFRPs are all identical. They convey in the draft year they’re for, no delays, chance for huge upside. FRPs are not. Next year’s CHA pick is 1-16,1-14,1-14, about as protected as a pick gets these days. The CHI 2025 pick is better by the virtue of being more lightly protected, 1-10,1-8,1-8. It could be a mid lottery pick. That’s pretty damn good as protected picks go.

    The big difference is that you have a slim chance to hit a home run with a UFRP or pick swap. You could win the lottery. Never happens with a pick with any protections at all. We could lose out on the 2028 BOS pick swap, because it’s #1 pick protected.
    Obviously. The key word is “slim” chance. My issue with UFRP gives a small chance on a small chance to get a good player. Is it better than a PFRP? Of course! But is it that much better? I’m not so sure.

  25. #850
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Obviously. The key word is “slim” chance. My issue with UFRP gives a small chance on a small chance to get a good player. Is it better than a PFRP? Of course! But is it that much better? I’m not so sure.
    You can’t win the lottery with a protected pick. That’s why, even with slim odds, unprotected picks are far more valuable. Teams really don’t want to part with them. The whole thing is a crap shoot, but you want SOME chance at the top pick. Only one way to get that.

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