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  1. #1
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    Funny how NBA.com has Manu only at 20% probability, while Joe Johnson is at 50% chance of making it as a 1st ballot HOF . The rest are 1st-time eligibles. Regardless of the underwhelming list, Manu is locked

    Joe Johnson, 50.6%
    Manu Ginobili, 20.1%
    David West, 1.4%
    Zach Randolph, 0.9%
    Jason Terry, 0.5%
    Richard Jefferson, 0.4%
    Josh Smith, 0.1%
    Al Jefferson, 0%

  2. #2
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Based on his NBA career, he probably is at 20%. Pretty sure he goes in as an international candidate.

  3. #3
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    The only question is whether he will make it first ballot or not, but I agree that his NBA accolades coupled with international career (Olympic gold, Euroleague champion) will put him over the top.

  4. #4
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Sniffers who think Aldridge is a 1st ballot and GNob is not.

  5. #5
    Veteran SpursforSix's Avatar
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    Funny how NBA.com has Manu only at 20% probability, while Joe Johnson is at 50% chance of making it as a 1st ballot HOF . The rest are 1st-time eligibles. Regardless of the underwhelming list, Manu is locked

    Joe Johnson, 50.6%
    Manu Ginobili, 20.1%
    David West, 1.4%
    Zach Randolph, 0.9%
    Jason Terry, 0.5%
    Richard Jefferson, 0.4%
    Josh Smith, 0.1%
    Al Jefferson, 0%
    Joe Johnson...wtf

  6. #6
    Veteran SpursforSix's Avatar
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    Funny how NBA.com has Manu only at 20% probability, while Joe Johnson is at 50% chance of making it as a 1st ballot HOF . The rest are 1st-time eligibles. Regardless of the underwhelming list, Manu is locked

    Joe Johnson, 50.6%
    Manu Ginobili, 20.1%
    David West, 1.4%
    Zach Randolph, 0.9%
    Jason Terry, 0.5%
    Richard Jefferson, 0.4%
    Josh Smith, 0.1%
    Al Jefferson, 0%
    Also...am I missing something or did they forget to add "2004 Olympic Gold Medalist"?

  7. #7
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    Based on his NBA career, he probably is at 20%. Pretty sure he goes in as an international candidate.
    That's probably still too low. But Joe Johnson at 50% and Manu at 20%? That's just ridiculous.

  8. #8
    Starter off the bench Uriel's Avatar
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    Manu came off the bench for virtually his whole career and that played a huge role in him not having more individual accolades. If he had been featured as a first option, he could have had a career similar to James Harden's.

  9. #9
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    For Manu, I would also add that he introduced the EuroStep to the NBA, which is a move that is now common place, but was historic in that he brought it to the game.

  10. #10
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Josh Smith, 0.1%
    So they're saying Josh Smiith has a chance.

  11. #11
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    So they're saying Josh Smiith has a chance.
    Yup. But there was a time I wanted Spurs to get him, and I think they tried.

    But besides Manu and maybe Joe Johnson, this is a pretty lame list.

  12. #12
    Believe.
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    joe johnson was a star player for a few years, put up high numbers and stuff. Manu while great played pretty selfless, off the bench etc. so i guess he appeared flashier, even tho manu is more talented than him

  13. #13
    Believe.
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    If Ben Wallace and Paul Pierce can make it then there's no doubt Emanuel David GINOBILI can make it. I do agree that him coming off the bench and taking a selfless approach on offense has hampered his NBA career but what he has achieved internationally is unmatched. I'm glad HOF doesn't only look at a players NBA career.

    Can't wait for Manu's induction! Hopefully Barkley will be in the audience shouting GINOBILIIIIIIIIIII

  14. #14
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    That's probably still too low. But Joe Johnson at 50% and Manu at 20%? That's just ridiculous.
    I think they are weighing Joe Johnson's all-star appearances heavily in this. Joe made it to the all-star game 7 times while Manu only made it twice.

  15. #15
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    Also...am I missing something or did they forget to add "2004 Olympic Gold Medalist"?
    You're missing something

  16. #16
    Spurs fan in Las Vegas Drom John's Avatar
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    NBA.com is using basketball-reference.com
    NBA & ABA Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability
    Explanation of Hall of Fame probablity


    Keep in mind that this exercise aims to predict who is likely to be inducted, as a Player, and based solely on NBA accomplishments and statistical output. There are coaches and contributors at all levels of the game, as well as foreign players and WNBA stars who are also worthy of induction.

  17. #17
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    If Ben Wallace and Paul Pierce can make it then there's no doubt Emanuel David GINOBILI can make it. I do agree that him coming off the bench and taking a selfless approach on offense has hampered his NBA career but what he has achieved internationally is unmatched. I'm glad HOF doesn't only look at a players NBA career.

    Can't wait for Manu's induction! Hopefully Barkley will be in the audience shouting GINOBILIIIIIIIIIII
    In Ben Wallace defense, he was a 4 time DPOY, rebounding and block leader. He basically set the defensive tone for that champion Piston team. For an undrafted player, the league could be giving other undrafted players hope. So Bruce still has a shot?

  18. #18
    Spurs fan in Las Vegas Drom John's Avatar
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    .9386 Tony parker
    .9335 pau Gasol
    .7769 Kawhi Leonard
    .5089 LaMarcus Aldridge
    .2005 Manu Ginobili
    .1073 Alvin Robertson
    .0675 DeMar DeRozan
    .0526 Terry porter
    .0336 Robert Horry
    .0331 Steve Kerr
    .0147 David Lee
    End of Top 250

    Active
    .0037 Danny Green
    .0009 George Hill
    .0006 patty Mills
    .0003 Cory Joseph

  19. #19
    Because I choose to. Neo.'s Avatar
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    manu has always been the most underappreciated spur and one of the most underrated players ever. he was easily better and more important than parker who is among the more overrated players ever

  20. #20
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    manu has always been the most underappreciated spur and one of the most underrated players ever. he was easily better and more important than parker who is among the more overrated players ever
    While Manu is my all-time favorite, Parker was also a of a player and equally deserving the praise. He led the field goal percentage despite his 6’2” frame, choosing to penetrate with his quick spin moves and teardrops (which he revolutionized, forget CP0), amidst trees. He was a one-man fastbreak with his speed. And this kid started directing Timmy and DRob when he was 19. So his fearlessness and tenacity to win both in the NBA and international was equal to Manu. Spurs were lucky to have all 3 alpha’s at the same time, coached with the GOAT.

  21. #21
    Believe.
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    I dont think he will but it would be funny to see Barkley present him the award.

  22. #22
    Veteran Proxy's Avatar
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    going in as an 'international' player feels very 2008 to say. His impact on the league is pretty monumental. Style of play for tons of current guards, goat sixth man posterchild that changed the entire strategy of that role, and part of the most successful big 3. That's an obvious nba HoFer tbh

  23. #23
    6X ST MVP
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    I called it, tbh.

  24. #24
    Still Sporting Ben Davis Allan Rowe vs Wade's Avatar
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    That crafty old man at the Y from-behind block on harden sealed him as a first balloter imo

  25. #25
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    That crafty old man at the Y from-behind block on harden sealed him as a first balloter imo
    They should change the DPOY trophy to that

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