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  1. #1
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Assuming Lonnie Walker is signed to a contract similar to DJ's and we do not do anything else significant with the remaining 2021 cap space:





    I tried to be as minimally controversial as I could with the "Expected Floor and Ceiling" of each player. I projected Keldon as a future All-Star and as someone who would be paid as a max player when his rookie deal allows it in 2023. I mean, we'd hope he'd reach that level anyway.

    The point of putting those projections is to see how the Spurs are using their investments.

    For year 2023, I assumed Poetl would be paid roughly the same.

    We literally can't keep all the young guys together if we end up signing a max player next offseason.

    Something's got to give.
    Last edited by Dejounte; 12-24-2020 at 06:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Veteran playblair's Avatar
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    what in the spurs history makes u think a max player would sign here...........lma was an anomaly no marquee free agent wants to live in san antonio......if this was austin yes this convo would be totally different

  3. #3
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    what in the spurs history makes u think a max player would sign here...........lma was an anomaly no marquee free agent wants to live in san antonio......if this was austin yes this convo would be totally different
    Collins and other potential max contract free agents next year aren't established enough as stars to be picky about where they want to end up. They'll go where the money and opportunities are.

  4. #4
    Spur-taaaa TDMVPDPOY's Avatar
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    hopefully spurs dont sign a max player, dont need them

    continue to draft and develop

    unless DD/LMA decide to sign cheap deals to end their careers in SA

  5. #5
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    hopefully spurs dont sign a max player, dont need them

    continue to draft and develop

    unless DD/LMA decide to sign cheap deals to end their careers in SA
    People will be upset because they won't understand the implications of other moves towards the cap, but I think this is the most realistic thing that will happen.

    After the Marcus Morris show and the DeMarre Carroll disappointment, it is way too risky to invest that much money into a free agent... unless they absolutely know their character OR it's a surefire superstar like LeBron James/ Giannis.

  6. #6
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    If there's one key thing that this financial outlook highlighted for me: it's that people need to temper their expectations for our young players. As absurd as this sounds, we don't want ALL of them to become stars, just a couple. Or else, they'll just walk away for free

  7. #7
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    Assuming Lonnie Walker is signed to a contract similar to DJ's and we do not do anything else with the remaining 2021 cap space:





    I tried to be as minimally controversial as I could with the "Expected Floor and Ceiling" of each player. I projected Keldon as a future All-Star and as someone who would be paid as a max player when his rookie deal allows it in 2023. I mean, we'd hope he'd reach that level anyway.

    The point of putting those projections is to see how the Spurs are using their investments.

    For year 2023, I assumed Poetl would be paid roughly the same.

    We literally can't keep all the young guys together if we end up signing a max player next offseason.

    Something's got to give.
    I could be wrong but I don't think Lonnie's deal would kick in until the 22 season.

  8. #8
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I could be wrong but I don't think Lonnie's deal would kick in until the 22 season.
    Yeah, I think that's how I have it? The second photo.

  9. #9
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    Yeah, I think that's how I have it? The second photo.
    I must be confused, it looks like you have a max contract going to Collins. Are you referring to a 2nd max?

  10. #10
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I must be confused, it looks like you have a max contract going to Collins. Are you referring to a 2nd max?
    Sorry, I could have elaborated better.

    Yes, the first photo assumes we'll pay John Collins the max in 2021 and nothing else significant with the remainder of the cap space.

    The second photo assumes we'll extend Lonnie to a contract similar to DJ's.

    The third photo assumes we extend Poetl in 2023 at the same rate and assumes we'll extend Keldon to a max contract.

    This is all ignoring the contracts we're going to our future draft picks (assuming we keep them).

  11. #11
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    Sorry, I could have elaborated better.

    Yes, the first photo assumes we'll pay John Collins the max in 2021 and nothing else significant with the remainder of the cap space.

    The second photo assumes we'll extend Lonnie to a contract similar to DJ's.

    The third photo assumes we extend Poetl in 2023 at the same rate and assumes we'll extend Keldon to a max contract.

    This is all ignoring the contracts we're going to our future draft picks (assuming we keep them).
    Gotcha, I think that's right. We can only afford 1 max if we try and keep our guys. Personally I wouldn't spend the max on Collins or a Lauri level player.

  12. #12
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Gotcha, I think that's right. We can only afford 1 max if we try and keep our guys. Personally I wouldn't spend the max on Collins or a Lauri level player.
    That's what I'm saying though. We can't afford to pay a max player next off-season and keep our guys (specifically Lonnie). We would be EXTREMELY handicapped by 2023 (see third photo).

    *All on the basis the players listed meet their "ceiling" expectations. If everyone underperforms.... then yeah, we can keep everybody. HOWEVER, that would mean nobody became stars and we would be right where we are now.

  13. #13
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    Cool breakdown, but I don't understand your worries. You plan for next season, not the one after next. What I'm saying is try to sign the best pieces you can during next free agency and then see who you want to keep after. You can't really predict what happens in 2 seasons. you can't even predict if they can finish this season due to Covid, etc.

    Spurs are in perfect position and can add 2 max free agents. I wouldn't worry too much on what happens afterwards right now.

  14. #14
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Did the Lakers just for comparison:


  15. #15
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Cool breakdown, but I don't understand your worries. You plan for next season, not the one after next. What I'm saying is try to sign the best pieces you can during next free agency and then see who you want to keep after. You can't really predict what happens in 2 seasons. you can't even predict if they can finish this season due to Covid, etc.

    Spurs are in perfect position and can add 2 max free agents. I wouldn't worry too much on what happens afterwards right now.
    I'm inclined to agree with you, but let's be real... what the Spurs have done the past 3+ years makes everything in the future predictable. They remain as stagnant as they possibly could and make changes (like trades) like turtles compared to other teams. It's not far off to think all they'll keep doing is make solid draft picks, sign low risk free agents, and make insignificant trades.

  16. #16
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I mean SURE they could make some major trades, trading away some of the youth... breaking apart a core that has openly said they "love" each other.

    But does that sound like the Spurs to you?

  17. #17
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    Interesting post. I think the obvious (not likely though) solution is to find a trade for DJ, that is IF Lonnie shows that he's worthy of a contract similar to his. A lot of how this shakes up will depend on how the young guys gel together - maybe, after an entire season of White at the helm, Dejounte looks to be expendable (especially if Vassell keeps developing at a quick pace, since a lot of their skills overlap), or maybe Lonnie shows us nothing and the FO gets him on the cheap.

    Right now, I don't see Lonnie being worth 16M, nor do I think he thinks that, nor the FO, so it's a bit early to be panicking about this. I also, sadly, am not really optimistic on chances of the Spurs being able to get Collins, so...

  18. #18
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    Nice work; good stuff.

    I'd file this under Good Problems To Have. If KJ ends up worth a max deal and LW4 ends up worth White/Murray money, that means they're making outstanding progress. There's obviously still a long road to travel before either of those scenarios become a reality.

    Signing a max player in the offseason would tighten the budget going forward, which is worth factoring in when the Spurs are considering a max offer to someone on Collins' level. That said, if the Spurs can sign a player who is clearly worth a max level contract, you likely just sign him and let the chips fall where they may.

  19. #19
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Interesting post. I think the obvious (not likely though) solution is to find a trade for DJ, that is IF Lonnie shows that he's worthy of a contract similar to his. A lot of how this shakes up will depend on how the young guys gel together - maybe, after an entire season of White at the helm, Dejounte looks to be expendable (especially if Vassell keeps developing at a quick pace, since a lot of their skills overlap), or maybe Lonnie shows us nothing and the FO gets him on the cheap.

    Right now, I don't see Lonnie being worth 16M, nor do I think he thinks that, nor the FO, so it's a bit early to be panicking about this. I also, sadly, am not really optimistic on chances of the Spurs being able to get Collins, so...
    Yeah, it's all on the assumption the young guys start to realize their potential. With that said, it would be a pretty big fail on Lonnie's part if he can't get a bigger (or same) first contract than DJ seeing as how he was picked higher in the draft. Hope that doesn't weigh heavy on his mind.

  20. #20
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Nice work; good stuff.

    I'd file this under Good Problems To Have. If KJ ends up worth a max deal and LW4 ends up worth White/Murray money, that means they're making outstanding progress. There's obviously still a long road to travel before either of those scenarios become a reality.

    Signing a max player in the offseason would tighten the budget going forward, which is worth factoring in when the Spurs are considering a max offer to someone on Collins' level. That said, if the Spurs can sign a player who is clearly worth a max level contract, you likely just sign him and let the chips fall where they may.
    I agree. You sign a max player who is clearly worth it.

    To me, this exercise is to raise questions about the future:

    Signing Collins now impacts our ability to keep our high ceiling guys a few years from now. It impacts what role players we can sign in 2023.

    And then it leads to,

    Is Collins' upside greater than Lonnie's? Is it greater than Vassell?

    When you have something to lose, you've got to ask these questions...

    Thankfully, I'm not being paid to make these decisions. Just trying to anticipate what might happen even though everything hinges on certain factors.

  21. #21
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Assuming Lonnie Walker is signed to a contract similar to DJ's and we do not do anything else significant with the remaining 2021 cap space:





    I tried to be as minimally controversial as I could with the "Expected Floor and Ceiling" of each player. I projected Keldon as a future All-Star and as someone who would be paid as a max player when his rookie deal allows it in 2023. I mean, we'd hope he'd reach that level anyway.

    The point of putting those projections is to see how the Spurs are using their investments.

    For year 2023, I assumed Poetl would be paid roughly the same.

    We literally can't keep all the young guys together if we end up signing a max player next offseason.

    Something's got to give.
    The extension kicks in the following year, just like always. Entering Lonnie’s year 3, they’ve already pick up his option for next year, and set that salary.

  22. #22
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    The extension kicks in the following year, just like always. Entering Lonnie’s year 3, they’ve already pick up his option for next year, and set that salary.
    Yeah, the extension kicks in 2022, no?

  23. #23
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    Sorry, I could have elaborated better.

    Yes, the first photo assumes we'll pay John Collins the max in 2021 and nothing else significant with the remainder of the cap space.

    The second photo assumes we'll extend Lonnie to a contract similar to DJ's.

    The third photo assumes we extend Poetl in 2023 at the same rate and assumes we'll extend Keldon to a max contract.

    This is all ignoring the contracts we're going to our future draft picks (assuming we keep them).
    Lonnie is going to have to play similarly to last night for most of this season to garner DJ contract type money.

  24. #24
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Lonnie is going to have to play similarly to last night for most of this season to garner DJ contract type money.
    As we're all hoping he will...

    If not, then it's going to be a ty season. I think he plays a big factor in this season's success.

  25. #25
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    I agree. You sign a max player who is clearly worth it.

    To me, this exercise is to raise questions about the future:

    Signing Collins now impacts our ability to keep our high ceiling guys a few years from now. It impacts what role players we can sign in 2023.

    And then it leads to,

    Is Collins' upside greater than Lonnie's? Is it greater than Vassell?

    When you have something to lose, you've got to ask these questions...

    Thankfully, I'm not being paid to make these decisions. Just trying to anticipate what might happen even though everything hinges on certain factors.
    well technically we could always resign everybody since we have bird rights. It's just a question of wanting to get into the tax. So I wouldn't be worried.

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