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He should be more sure of the propaganda like you are, board cuckold.
You don't know where to go or what to do. This thing has you flip flopping every day and it's really not too difficult to figure out.
He should be more sure of the propaganda like you are, board cuckold.
Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.
The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.
Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.
Oh something is nipping at my ankle. It must be almost midnightHe should be more sure of the propaganda like you are, board cuckold.
Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.
The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.
Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.
They all stayed in their poorly ventilated buildings and got sick.
We don't live on top of each other down here.
Compare case and/or death rates of NY and TX.
It's not close.
Like you could stand on your ankles. Yours are only for grabbing.
Are you implying a stay at home order or Texas reducing their collective mobility wouldn't have efficacy? Let's look at that, shall we.
Texas was CRUSHING it when they were at 50 percent reduced mobility. I remember getting blasted by MannyasGod for saying "Texas is looking real good." The combination of Texas's low population density with their social distancing over this time proved to work wonders. Texas ramped up to 20 percent below the usual and we're seeing how that contributed to a large seeding that is ing all their metrics. As many health officials have said, "We went from 0-100 in reopening."
So I guess you're comforting yourself with, "at least we're not New York!" That shouldn't be a goal. New Zealand and Australia should be the goals.
Got a theory for you bro.Like you could stand on your ankles. Yours are only for grabbing.
Ask yourself who is promoting reopening and why?
Are you implying a stay at home order or Texas reducing their collective mobility wouldn't have efficacy? Let's look at that, shall we.
Texas was CRUSHING it when they were at 50 percent reduced mobility. I remember getting blasted by MannyasGod for saying "Texas is looking real good." The combination of Texas's low population density with their social distancing over this time proved to work wonders. Texas ramped up to 20 percent below the usual and we're seeing how that contributed to a large seeding that is ing all their metrics. As many health officials have said, "We went from 0-100 in reopening."
So I guess you're comforting yourself with, "at least we're not New York!" That shouldn't be a goal. New Zealand and Australia should be the goals.
I'm saying, maybe we have to reach their infection levels before our curve comes down.
Why I'm saying is you don't need more infections to flatten the curve. You can flatten with social distancing, mask wearing, and such, and still have a somewhat open economy. Wanting the infection rate to increase is needlessly cruel. Until there's evidence that New York's infection rate contributed to their decline, I'll chalk it up their recent success as a result of their measures.
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood what you meant?
Spain = 300,000 infected, population 47 million
Italy = 242,149 infected, population 60 million
France = 169,473 infected, population 67 million
Most of these places locked down hard (and by hard I mean you needed to fill a form/certificate before leaving the house, at least in Italy), then slowly moved into different, more relaxes phases, which is what the WHO recommends, IIRC.
Not saying that would work in the US, tbh, but for example Italy is on phase 3 now, which include:
Face masks and social distancing will remain obligatory in enclosed public spaces, with a ban on large-scale gatherings also staying in place.
It's not just us, the whole world is dealing with this thing, pretty much the same way.
And they're seeing results. We do in some places, and in other places we think we know better, and it's back to the drawing board.
Why is herd immunity important?
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune.
Often, a percentage of the population must be capable of getting a disease in order for it to spread. This is called a threshold proportion. If the proportion of the population that is immune to the disease is greater than this threshold, the spread of the disease will decline. This is known as the herd immunity threshold.
What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/herd-immu...s/art-20486808
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So yeah, it's likely you need over 70%. If there's one thing this virus is, is ing contagious. It'll eventually happen, after decades most likely, unless the virus self-implodes first or we find an effective vaccine.
If there's one thing Sweden proved, IMO, is that the vast majority of people do not want to get infected, period.
Darrin thinks herd immunity is a thing because his media bubble tells him so, and he cannot really think for himself.Nope. The curve dropped fast because they took fast and decisive measures to sharply reduce it. Here's NY.
The yellow line is when most of the seeding took place. Then we see New York reduce its collective mobility by 65%. By May 1st, their case prevalence dropped by over 80 percent. And New York is still at 35% reduced mobility and is likely more cautious than ever socially, wearing masks, observing social distancing, etc, and we see they've kept their numbers down.
Their fast drop in collective mobility correlates with their fast decline in infections and deaths. There's no evidence they have any herd immunity. I don't know why you think herd immunity is a good solution, anyway. I'm thinking it's because you want the economy to get back to normal, but that isn't happening any time soon. You can have a relatively open economy if people abide by the precautions outlined by every health official there is. What you should be wanting is Trump urging mask use and every governor mandating masks in indoor establishments.
The thing that needs understanding is that Trump is a full-on sociopath who does not care how many people die. Trump thinks that keeping open helps the economy so that helps his re-election chances. That is the depth of the concern there, and he is pushing that narrative down and out, and the right wing echo chamber DS is trapped in has magnified that message.
Darrin will support whatever that media tells him to.
Herd immunity is the rationalization from that propaganda machine to carry out the self-serving goal of Trump re-electing himself at the expense of actual lives.
Last edited by RandomGuy; 07-09-2020 at 12:42 AM.
Also, you can lower the herd immunity threshold by taking those measures (masks, social distancing, etc). Ex:
So yeah, in population where everyone is social distancing, wearing masks, and avoiding large gatherings, the herd immunity threshold is likely lower. The virus first infects a certain percentage but then "dies out" because it can't find new hosts who are avoiding it. Perhaps this did happen in NY. They've been strict about adhering to these measures.In a Twitter thread in May, Dean emphasized that there’s too much uncertainty around basic aspects of the disease — from the different values of R0 in different settings to the effects of relaxing social distancing — to place much confidence in exact herd immunity thresholds. The threshold could be one number as long as a lot of people are wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings, and another much higher number if and when people let their guard down.
In states that have a high population of the "Freedumb" contingent, I'm not sure it's going to work like that. This is why you should be enraged by those people if you desperately want to get back to normal. They've ruined it.
Yo Splits, see if you can project Texas. You nailed NY and NJ.
That is the more reasonable take, IMO.
Now that I would like to see. My crude guess is that it gets bad, very bad, next week.
Darrin and I always have reasonable conversations, so I'm not trying to come down on him, but the "herd immunity" idea seems to be 100 percent driven by an urge to get the economy back up and running full force either because you need to go back to work to provide for yourself (very understandable) or because you know a limp economy will hurt Trump's reelection chances and/or you're relatively wealthy and are concerned about your portfolio. It's funny, many of the herd immunity proponents on twitter will invariably be "investors" with a Libertarian bent.
"But you Liberals wanna keep the economy shutdown to hurt Trump! Glass houses!"
Nope. We told them they in' plan in March that was suggested by health officials and which first gained notoriety in the "Hammer and the Dance" article on Medium. You lockdown decisively for a couple months and flatten the curve not just to keep it below healthcare capacity, but to knock it down on its ass. Then you reopen in phases and adhere to mask wearing, good hygiene, social distancing, etc to keep the R0 in check. If the "Freedumb" base didn't throw a tantrum mid-lockdown (brow beating governors to reopen and the media making people like S y Luther into the modern day Rosa Parks), we'd probably be where much of Europe is right now and Trump would cruise to a reelection.
Now governors are trying to compromise with the Freedumbs by allowing reopenings with certain measures, and they don't even want to abide by those measures, like mask wearing and socially distant indoor dining.
Now I hope governors lock down hard again just to spite these s. Tired of "the base" getting their way all the time.
Dude likes to make money like the rest of us. What a scandal.
But at the expense of the common man. Just elites doing what they do, per par.
Millions will be losing their homes. Millions more will lose their livelihoods. This is all while the media is being very dishonest with us.
I know you need a counter boogeyman; but this reality is not changing.
Hopefully we'll have a government that steps up to the plate to help those in need during these extenuating cir stances. Like the do with businesses.
The Trash/Repug govt? we'll see that they deliver by 1 Aug. I expect they will America over.
McConnell will want many $100Bs for the oligarchy while letting 10Ms of Americans go over the unemployment cliff, as states, cities, and health care run up debts in the many $100Bs, the "fiscal cliff".
The Dems' HEROES Act addressed the above, but McConnell blocks/destroys everything the Dems do, McConnell can't allow anything good to come from the Dems, just like Trash destroys everything that Obama did.
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