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  1. #101
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    ^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.
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  2. #102
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    ^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.
    I think you're massively underrating the Spurs' roster, especially in the regular season. Even without Tim, that lineup would be the most talented team in the West 1-9. They just wouldn't have the star power to win a ring.

    Anyway. cd021 , LJC's salary for next season is fixed at whatever the 28th pick gets next season. It will be closer to $1 Million than $1.5 Million.
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  3. #103
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    Without both Tim and Manu, I see this team being a 48-50 win team at best, which is right about the 8th seed in the west.
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  4. #104
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    I think you're massively underrating the Spurs' roster, especially in the regular season. Even without Tim, that lineup would be the most talented team in the West 1-9. They just wouldn't have the star power to win a ring.

    Anyway. cd021 , LJC's salary for next season is fixed at whatever the 28th pick gets next season. It will be closer to $1 Million than $1.5 Million.
    Ok. I thought that draft n' stashes (1st rounders) can't (or usually don't) sign rookie scale deals. I may have been thinking about Splitters rookie deal was the was something close to the norm.

    the 28th pick would get about $957,000
    That threw my math off a bit in my above post

    my first scenario would put the spurs at $55 million for 9 players with Green, & Ginobili for 10.5 million giving the Spurs about $65.5 to 11 players. I forgot that Belinelli would have to be signed with a exception, meaning he would probably take up most of the MLE.

    In my second scenario, the Spurs could have about $64.6 million to 12 players (including Leonard and his cap hold) including Milsap and if the spurs use their '15 pick for a non draft n' stash player. In all they could have around 74 million in total salary after Kawhi is resigned (to a five year deal) if my math is correct.
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  5. #105
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    Ok. I thought that draft n' stashes (1st rounders) can't (or usually don't) sign rookie scale deals. I may have been thinking about Splitters rookie deal was the was something close to the norm.
    If the player goes unsigned for three years (like in the cases of Splitter and Mirotic), then he's no longer bound to the rookie scale (in both a positive and negative way for him). Jean-Charles will only go without a deal for two years, so he'll still be bound by the scale. Ibaka waited a year after OKC drafted him, and he still went for a rookie-scale deal, for an example of such a thing happening before.
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  6. #106
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    Without both Tim and Manu, I see this team being a 48-50 win team at best, which is right about the 8th seed in the west.
    So seven other teams will get better records than the Spurs, even though they also don't have Duncan and Ginobili...

    The talent gap between the Spurs and the rest of the league is massive, in my opinion. Add in the superior coaching, and I think the team could get a top-four seed with relative ease. They'd still have the best defensive personnel in the league. If the Spurs let Duncan and Ginobili retire without replacing them, then I could see a huge regular-season drop-off. But bringing in other talented players should help them avoid that.
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  7. #107
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    Parker-Mills-Vet. Min PG
    Green-Belinelli-Bertans
    Leonard-Anderson
    Milsap-Diaw-Jean-Charles
    Splitter-Baynes-Vet Min. C
    There's no chance Bertans can defend SG's.

    Millsap, I've long thought would be a target, but the problem is, neither him or Diaw can credibly play C. Since Splitter is unlikely to ever average even 30 mpg and they'd have to go cheap at backup C, someone who can play both PF and C is ideal. People always bring up Aldridge, but he's more than likely a pipe dream.

    The guy to keep an eye on, especially if it looks more and more likely that Duncan and Ginobili are going to play another year, is Horford. He's up in two years, he's Spurs material on an off the court, he'd be an excellent fit with either Splitter or Diaw and the Hawks were supposedly quietly and selectively shopping him at the deadline.
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  8. #108
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    There's no chance Bertans can defend SG's.

    Millsap, I've long thought would be a target, but the problem is, neither him or Diaw can credibly play C. Since Splitter is unlikely to ever average even 30 mpg and they'd have to go cheap at backup C, someone who can play both PF and C is ideal. People always bring up Aldridge, but he's more than likely a pipe dream.

    The guy to keep an eye on, especially if it looks more and more likely that Duncan and Ginobili are going to play another year, is Horford. He's up in two years, he's Spurs material on an off the court, he'd be an excellent fit with either Splitter or Diaw and the Hawks were supposedly quietly and selectively shopping him at the deadline.
    I'm not very familiar with Bertans but he doesn't seem like he's able to the bigger and more athletic small forwards in the NBA. I guess thats why he's been compared to Daye (NBA Draft Net) a bit of a tweener. Not a perfect fit at either position.

    I agree, Splitter doesn't seem built to play 30+ mpg over the course of a 82 game season + postseason. Valid point as well about Milsap and Diaw (also, Jean Charles) all not being able to play center. Unfortunately their aren't very many realtistic options on the FA market.

    There aren't many bigs that can play both PF and C on the open market, and anywhere in the Spurs range. Kevin Garnett can fit that role but there are plenty of reasons why that wouldn't work out; he will be 39 by next offseason & entering his 20th season , likely needs to take the vet. min, Duncan doesn't like Garnett (SI mentioned this in an article a couple of years ago) and Garnett hasn't come off the bench since Bill Clinton was president ('95-'96 season more than 1300 starts since then)

    Jordan Hill can play some of both and shot the ball well from outside of the paint last season. He is very productive in limited minutes. He has a team option for next season so the Lakers could decline his deal in order to become players next off season.

    In a center, The Spurs need a big who can defend & board, pass has a solid BBIQ and an ablity to finish around the rim.

    Another option could be finding a 3rd center (assuming Baynes is back for cheap) in the 2015 NBA draft, which is supposed to be very big man heavy.

    (projected to be drafted in the first round)

    Bleacher Report-14 PF/Cs
    NBA Draft Net-13 PF/Cs
    Draft Express-12 PF/Cs

    I like Milsap's fit, in part because of floor spacing ability

    he hit 40.6% of his 3 FGA per game from 10-22 feet (above average)

    and he stretched his jumper out to 3 point range, 35.8% 3pt of his 3 FGA per game

    Horford has had some health issues but is otherwise a very good player. I don't think both Tim and Manu will return after next season but I could see Manu returning for another year. Its hard to imagine the Spurs being able to have enough cap space to outbid another team in two seasons, while still being a playoff team.
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  9. #109
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    I'm not very familiar with Bertans but he doesn't seem like he's able to the bigger and more athletic small forwards in the NBA. I guess thats why he's been compared to Daye (NBA Draft Net) a bit of a tweener. Not a perfect fit at either position.

    I agree, Splitter doesn't seem built to play 30+ mpg over the course of a 82 game season + postseason. Valid point as well about Milsap and Diaw (also, Jean Charles) all not being able to play center. Unfortunately their aren't very many realtistic options on the FA market.

    There aren't many bigs that can play both PF and C on the open market, and anywhere in the Spurs range. Kevin Garnett can fit that role but there are plenty of reasons why that wouldn't work out; he will be 39 by next offseason & entering his 20th season , likely needs to take the vet. min, Duncan doesn't like Garnett (SI mentioned this in an article a couple of years ago) and Garnett hasn't come off the bench since Bill Clinton was president ('95-'96 season more than 1300 starts since then)

    Jordan Hill can play some of both and shot the ball well from outside of the paint last season. He is very productive in limited minutes. He has a team option for next season so the Lakers could decline his deal in order to become players next off season.

    In a center, The Spurs need a big who can defend & board, pass has a solid BBIQ and an ablity to finish around the rim.

    Another option could be finding a 3rd center (assuming Baynes is back for cheap) in the 2015 NBA draft, which is supposed to be very big man heavy.

    (projected to be drafted in the first round)

    Bleacher Report-14 PF/Cs
    NBA Draft Net-13 PF/Cs
    Draft Express-12 PF/Cs

    I like Milsap's fit, in part because of floor spacing ability

    he hit 40.6% of his 3 FGA per game from 10-22 feet (above average)

    and he stretched his jumper out to 3 point range, 35.8% 3pt of his 3 FGA per game

    Horford has had some health issues but is otherwise a very good player. I don't think both Tim and Manu will return after next season but I could see Manu returning for another year. Its hard to imagine the Spurs being able to have enough cap space to outbid another team in two seasons, while still being a playoff team.
    Yeah, he's similar to Daye in that he's a tall shooter without a defined defensive position. Which is why, like Daye, I suspect they attempt to convert him into a stretch four.

    There aren't, but I'm talking ideally and within' the realm of realistic expectations.

    Garnett looked done last season and is almost certainly entering his final season and Hill is too limited. They need an in their prime, All-Star caliber big.

    I've had the feeling for a long time that Duncan and Ginobili will retire at the same time. If that comes to fruition a year from now, then obviously they'll most likely go after Millsap, for all the logical reasons. But if both come back for another year, then Horford becomes the no brainer target in '16.
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  10. #110
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    ^ This Parker-Green-Leonard-Milsap-Splitter team is an 8th seed in the west. Don't be in a hurry to retire Duncan and Manu just yet. The Spurs path will resemble Philly's after they retire and it sure isn't fun.
    I don't agree with that. I could see the Spurs still being in play for a top 4 seed with that roster.

    I would put the Thunder, Mavs, Warriors, Clippers (if they can keep Jordan) being better than that Spurs team but the Spurs could probably beat any of them in a long playoff series.

    Parker-Mills-Vet. Min PG
    Green-Belinelli-Bertans
    Leonard-Anderson
    Milsap-Diaw-Jean-Charles
    Splitter-Baynes-Vet Min. C

    Our bench would take a step back without Ginobili's creativity but Mills,Belinelli, Anderson, Diaw and a C isn't a bad bench.

    Milsap can certainly produce above the level that Duncan did last season, but Duncan is still a better defender and rebounder.

    Milsap averaged 18 ppg and 8 rpg on a team an Atlanta team that didn't have the talent around him that this team could have.

    He has stretched his range out to the 3pt line and would be a good pick and pop option with Parker.

    I'm actually hoping both Duncan and Ginobili both retire following this season, its better to start the rebuild/retooling sooner rather than later. Keeping both would hamper the Spurs abilities to make moves going forward.

    In my first scenario, I have do have Manu coming back with Duncan retiring (I have Kawhi getting the max extension in that scenario).

    That team would not be as good as the 2nd team but would probably be closer to the 8th seed.

    The Spurs would have only the full mid-level exception to improve the team, but if they are interested in bringing Belinelli back they would have to dip into the MLE.
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  11. #111
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    I couldn't disagree more tbh, but then everyone has an opinion so agree to disagree. I think people massively underrate the effect Duncan and Manu have on the team dynamics and everyone who's longing for a quick rebuild will be extremely disappointed going into Philly's viscious circle of gathering assets.
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  12. #112
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    Honestly, that's what you're proposing. The Spurs aren't going to be a bottom-feeder just because Duncan and Manu leave. Too many teams pull out strong seasons in similar situations for me to believe that. As a result, I am not advocating pulling a Philly and selling off assets to tank. The Spurs may never have to go that far. They certainly don't have to any time soon.

    This is the most talented roster the team has ever seen, and that's without any FAs. They match up well against any team in the league defensively. They'll have the best coach, two fMVPs and an almost-fMVP. The only way I see it failing to work is if they give up because they don't feel they can compete without Duncan. If they don't, they'll be an elite scorer from being my really early favorite to come out of the West in 2016.
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  13. #113
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    Actually I don't think the'll go as far as Philly did either, for financial reasons, but I'd expect them to be a 1st round and out at best in the immediate years after Tim and Manu retire, while trying to rebuild around Leonard and Parker. However, considering that it took them 3/4 years to retool and contend again between 2008/9 and 2012/13 while they had Tim and Manu on the roster, I'd find it completely delusional to expect them to do it as quick or quicker with them out, even in the case of potential free agents joining. If I were a betting man I'd put money on them trying to retool for a couple of years, failing, then trading assets and trying to start from scratch.
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  14. #114
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    I think the 2009-2011 seasons should be proof to you that Duncan and Ginobili aren't the main reasons why the Spurs are dominant now. It's because they have elite teammates. The reason why it took so long to reload is because they didn't want to admit they were old. This post-Duncan Spurs won't be old. They also won't be looking for an iden y like they were in the transition years.
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  15. #115
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    Also, the Spurs were still a really good team in those years, especially in the regular season. Now way the front office blows it up if they have similar success in a couple of years.
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  16. #116
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    Milsap can certainly produce above the level that Duncan did last season, but Duncan is still a better defender and rebounder.

    Milsap averaged 18 ppg and 8 rpg on a team an Atlanta team that didn't have the talent around him that this team could have.
    Context is everything in basketball, which is why raw numbers are largely irrelevant in many cases. Swap Millsap and Duncan, plus their minutes and field goal attempts and Duncan averages 18, while Millsap doesn't. It doesn't make either any better or worse though.

    Another problem with your bench is the lack of athleticism/defense. This is an issue now, but the difference is, the four main subs are so much better than every other bench in the league that, along with the way Pop manipulates the rotation and it ends up not mattering much. But you remove Ginobili and add some more tread to Diaw's tires and it will.
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  17. #117
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    Context is everything in basketball, which is why raw numbers are largely irrelevant in many cases. Swap Millsap and Duncan, plus their minutes and field goal attempts and Duncan averages 18, while Millsap doesn't. It doesn't make either any better or worse though.

    Another problem with your bench is the lack of athleticism/defense. This is an issue now, but the difference is, the four main subs are so much better than every other bench in the league that, along with the way Pop manipulates the rotation and it ends up not mattering much. But you remove Ginobili and add some more tread to Diaw's tires and it will.
    to be fair ...

    Duncan-12.2 FGA, 15.1 PPG,=1.23 PPS

    Milsap-14.1 FGA, 17.9 PPG,=1.27 PPS

    if Duncan averaged the same amount of shot attempts per game, he would average about 17.3 ppg.

    The second scenario leaves very little wiggle room, not to mention that I screwed up the depth chart and put Beli on it (the Spurs likely wouldn't be able to bring him back).

    They would have $64.6 million to 11 players (including Bertans, 2015 first rounder and LJC) they would only have $1.5 million of remaining cap space, a vet. minimum deal which brings it up to $67.6 + 9.5 (16.7 million total for Kawhi, once the Spurs resign Leonard to a five year extension )=$77.1 million for 13 players.

    The luxury tax would be around $81 million

    our bench would actually be
    Mills
    SG
    Anderson
    Bertans
    Diaw
    LJC-Baynes
    Vet. Min
    first rounder

    Now that is an underwhelming bench but as you mentioned it may not be as big of a deal. Diaw shouldn't be over burdened (I'm thinking in terms of minutes) with that bench. Diaw and Mills would be the primary options with more pressure on them to produce on a nightly basis.

    Then again Milsap would only be 30 and would top 30 minutes (probably 32 mpg) leaving Diaw for about 16 mpg at PF (barring injuries and Diaw having to step into a bigger role)

    In order to pull a top free agent and stay under the cap while keeping your key cogs, this is how it would have to be. Not much of a bench but the starting unit is very good.
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  18. #118
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    I couldn't disagree more tbh, but then everyone has an opinion so agree to disagree. I think people massively underrate the effect Duncan and Manu have on the team dynamics and everyone who's longing for a quick rebuild will be extremely disappointed going into Philly's viscious circle of gathering assets.
    Phily is in the midst of unprecedented tanking.

    -traded an all star for two lottery picks (Noel and Sariic)
    -traded to starters for second round picks (Turner and Hawes) on way to losing 23 straight games
    -Drafted Embiid (who will miss the majority of the season, but is considered to be the best player in the draft)

    I could see the Spurs being having an Indy like rebuild. Finishing in the mid to late lottery and drafting well.

    Danny Granger-1st round, 17th pick
    Paul George- 1st round, 10th pick
    Lan Stephenson- 2nd round, 40th overall pick
    Roy Hibbert-1st round, 17th pick (Indy traded for him 3 weeks following him being drafted by Toronto)

    The Spurs already have a great start with Leonard and have several potential role players in Anderson, Livio, & Bertans all under 23. Not to mention a better front office and coaching and a bigger market.
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  19. #119
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    to be fair ...

    Duncan-12.2 FGA, 15.1 PPG,=1.23 PPS

    Milsap-14.1 FGA, 17.9 PPG,=1.27 PPS

    if Duncan averaged the same amount of shot attempts per game, he would average about 17.3 ppg.

    The second scenario leaves very little wiggle room, not to mention that I screwed up the depth chart and put Beli on it (the Spurs likely wouldn't be able to bring him back).

    They would have $64.6 million to 11 players (including Bertans, 2015 first rounder and LJC) they would only have $1.5 million of remaining cap space, a vet. minimum deal which brings it up to $67.6 + 9.5 (16.7 million total for Kawhi, once the Spurs resign Leonard to a five year extension )=$77.1 million for 13 players.

    The luxury tax would be around $81 million

    our bench would actually be
    Mills
    SG
    Anderson
    Bertans
    Diaw
    LJC-Baynes
    Vet. Min
    first rounder

    Now that is an underwhelming bench but as you mentioned it may not be as big of a deal. Diaw shouldn't be over burdened (I'm thinking in terms of minutes) with that bench. Diaw and Mills would be the primary options with more pressure on them to produce on a nightly basis.

    Then again Milsap would only be 30 and would top 30 minutes (probably 32 mpg) leaving Diaw for about 16 mpg at PF (barring injuries and Diaw having to step into a bigger role)

    In order to pull a top free agent and stay under the cap while keeping your key cogs, this is how it would have to be. Not much of a bench but the starting unit is very good.
    Close enough, but again, context matters. If Duncan were on the Hawks, he'd be the full time C offensively, which probably means less mid range jumpers and that changes the entire equation.

    As far as the bench, I'd be looking for a relatively low cost player who can defend and shoot the three at least adequately, while also providing some secondary ball handling. Someone like Bazemore would be a nice fit with Mills and Anderson on the perimeter.

    Backup C would still be a gaping hole, but there are always low cost finds to be had. A guy like Ayon has flashed some potential in the past, injuries have derailed his career for the moment and he'll probably have to go back overseas. But if he stays healthy and plays to his potential, he could easily be back in the league as a decent enough backup.
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  20. #120
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    I'd much rather sign Johnson/trade for Ilyasova and spend only $8 Million rather than sign Millsap for $12.5 Million. The Spurs need to target a strong bench wing and a backup center. I don't know anything about a wing (Kevin Martin in a trade perhaps?) but I like Seraphin for the center spot.
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  21. #121
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    I'd much rather sign Johnson/trade for Ilyasova and spend only $8 Million rather than sign Millsap for $12.5 Million. The Spurs need to target a strong bench wing and a backup center. I don't know anything about a wing (Kevin Martin in a trade perhaps?) but I like Seraphin for the center spot.
    What would you think it would take to get Illysova from Milwaukee? I'd personally, rather have Milsap over Johnson though.


    I like Martin and he is certainly obtainable for the Spurs. Minny has been shopping Martin and have been looking to unload his deal.

    The Spurs could ship Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayers and a first round pick for Martin.

    Minny would save $ 10 million and pick up an additional first rounder.

    That would give the Spurs to get some scoring punch off the bench (or additional scoring punch if Manu returns). He's affordable and an efficient scorer.

    In Scenario 1- The Spurs would have 12 players for $67.5 million + the mid level exception to add around Parker, Leonard, Splitter, Green, Martin and Manu.


    In scenario 2- The Spurs could ,conceivable, have a roster that includes both Milsap and Martin along with a returning Danny Green (who would need to be resigned with bird rights).

    They would have 67.4 to 11 players (including Leonard's cap hold and taking Bertans out of this scenario). Add a couple of minimum deals and they would be hovering around $80 million in payroll after Leonard gets extended. That should be slightly below where the luxury tax will be.
    Last edited by cd021; 08-22-2014 at 11:40 PM.
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  22. #122
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    Close enough, but again, context matters. If Duncan were on the Hawks, he'd be the full time C offensively, which probably means less mid range jumpers and that changes the entire equation.

    As far as the bench, I'd be looking for a relatively low cost player who can defend and shoot the three at least adequately, while also providing some secondary ball handling. Someone like Bazemore would be a nice fit with Mills and Anderson on the perimeter.

    Backup C would still be a gaping hole, but there are always low cost finds to be had. A guy like Ayon has flashed some potential in the past, injuries have derailed his career for the moment and he'll probably have to go back overseas. But if he stays healthy and plays to his potential, he could easily be back in the league as a decent enough backup.

    Samuel Dalembert is an UFA and a good defender and rebounder. He'll be 34 by the time he hits market. The Spurs could draft a big as well for depth and have him develop behind Splitter and Dalembert.
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  23. #123
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    What would you think it would take to get Illysova from Milwaukee? I'd personally, rather have Milsap over Johnson though.


    I like Martin and he is certainly obtainable for the Spurs. Minny has been shopping Martin and have been looking to unload his deal.

    The Spurs could ship Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayers and a first round pick for Martin.

    Minny would save $ 10 million and pick up an additional first rounder.

    That would give the Spurs to get some scoring punch off the bench (or additional scoring punch if Manu returns). He's affordable and an efficient scorer.

    In Scenario 1- The Spurs would have 12 players for $67.5 million + the mid level exception to add around Parker, Leonard, Splitter, Green, Martin and Manu.


    In scenario 2- The Spurs could ,conceivable, have a roster that includes both Milsap and Martin along with a returning Danny Green (who would need to be resigned with bird rights).

    They would have 67.4 to 11 players (including Leonard's cap hold and taking Bertans out of this scenario). Add a couple of minimum deals and they would be hovering around $80 million in payroll after Leonard gets extended. That should be slightly below where the luxury tax will be.
    I doubt Martin or Ilyasova have much positive trade value right now. That could certainly change next off-season, however. Provided that it doesn't, I think the Spurs could trade for both while also keeping their first-round pick by giving up rights to overseas players and future seconds, and by allowing both teams to send those players away while taking no money back. Then, they could also come to an agreement with either Dalembert as you said or Seraphin to be their backup five. If Baynes does end up leaving the Spurs this off-season (and Cotton hangs on), the 2015 roster could look at follows:

    PG: Parker, Mills, Cotton
    SG: Green, Martin,
    SF: Leonard, Anderson
    PF: Ilyasova, Diaw, Jean-Charles
    C: Splitter, Seraphin

    With probably just enough room to squeeze in either their pick or a long-term deal for a player like Bertans. So then, assuming an $8.7-Million increase for Leonard (from his cap hold to his max), the Spurs could have $4 Million to fill their roster (on two players) before the tax kicks in. They could still use the room exception and sign one min deal or simply leave the 15th spot open for emergencies.

    The only downside to this is that the team would be pretty dependent on the cap (and tax line) to outgrow their players' salaries in 2016. This should happen, but it would very risky. The benefit of this, however, is that the Spurs would actually be poised to shed a lot of salary again in 2017, when Splitter, Mills, Martin, Ilyasova and the room-exception player would all roll off the books, and when Diaw's contract would become fully non-guaranteed. As per this scenario, the Spurs would only have Parker, Leonard, Green, Anderson, LJC, their 2016 pick under guaranteed contract for a total between $40 Million and $43 Million. Considering how much the cap is projected to jump then, they'd have another max contract slot to offer then, in addition to at least one other mid-sized deal.

    Oh, the possibilities...
    Chinook is offline

  24. #124
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    Samuel Dalembert is an UFA and a good defender and rebounder. He'll be 34 by the time he hits market. The Spurs could draft a big as well for depth and have him develop behind Splitter and Dalembert.
    Yeah, he'd work as a stopgap. I'd prefer younger, but he'd obviously be a clear upgrade over Ayres/Baynes.

    Good one, Chinook. Seraphin is a better example of what I was getting at than Ayon, given the fact that he's four years younger and has a higher upside.

    Even if Duncan comes back for another season, I could see them pursuing him next off season, as the only other bigs guaranteed to return are Splitter and Diaw. But post Duncan, unless the PF they splurge on can also credibly play C, they have to find a second C who's either good enough or has enough upside to be up to a 20 mpg player, without spending too much.
    TD 21 is offline

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