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  1. #101
    Emperor Duncan>>>>>King James tim_duncan_fan's Avatar
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    I don't gamble normally.

    What do I get back if I drop $100 on us winning more than 23 and we do?

  2. #102
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    I don't gamble normally.

    What do I get back if I drop $100 on us winning more than 23 and we do?
    Most books are currently paying -110 for over 23.5 wins. A $100 dollar bet will pay $90.91 if they win 24 or more games.

  3. #103
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Sooo, not too much worse than last year?? Think you're overshooting their ceiling here.

    No DJ. No Derrick. No Lonnie (best scorer off the bench until Josh got here, who will likely be traded). Likely no Poeltl (clearly our best defender in the paint). And even with Poeltl and Richardson, we have no defensive talent aaide from Poeltl, Richardson, and maybe Vassell, nor reliable scoring aside from KJ and maybe Vassell.

    So even if you challenge the overall contribution of any of those players, and I do myself, very little history playing together which likely means much of the first half of the season will be spent being cohesive together. And that assumes pop actually has coherent lineups and sticks with them.

    Very tough schedule given our division is almost uniformly better than us. Aside from Utah, and maaaaaybe Sacramento, who in our conference do you expect to retrograde down the standings ladder?

    In the eastern conference, aside from Washington, Orlando, Indiana, Detroit, and maybe Brooklyn depending on what happens there, all the other teams are clearly better than us. And I'd submit most of the teams I just listed are probably going to be better as well.

    I don't see any way in this team cracks 25 wins, UNLESS Sochan is just a badass on the pro level and we just haven't seen it yet because he's not played yet.

    I'd go much closer with what Vegas is predicting. We're nowhere near as good as we were last year, and we sucked balls last year
    We don’t try to dump games at the end. Your evaluation of those other teams is flawed, because they WILL try to dump games at the end, when it becomes apparent they won’t make the playoffs. Did you have “SA finishes with a better record than Portland” on your dance card last year? Bet not.

  4. #104
    Veteran InRareForm's Avatar
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    That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

  5. #105
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    haha I’ve been beating exstatic up for awhile when he spews this.

  6. #106
    Shaken, not stirred jjspur's Avatar
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    I'll give the spurs about 23 games as well but plus or minus 6 games either way. If the spurs players and rookies are totally overwhelmed its closer to about 17 wins. If they make some adjustments or a minor trade and play ok down the stretch I can see them closer to 25-29 wins, but even that might be a stretch.

    As usual they will lose games they can win, and win a few games they should easily lose. The obvious goal is to tank for Wembamyama, so really about 20 wins is all we have to look forward to. Its going to be a long season. I'll be looking for my lucky rabbits foot come May.

  7. #107
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    haha I’ve been beating exstatic up for awhile when he spews this.
    . Yeah, you and the wildly famous and respected Todd Fuhrman.

  8. #108
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    . Yeah, you and the wildly famous and respected Todd Fuhrman.
    I know nothing about him. I do know something about market making and I do know you have no clue on the topic yet offer an opinion as fact.

    You've probably never laid risk let alone managed it.

  9. #109
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

    And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

    I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

    My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.

  10. #110
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

    And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

    I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

    My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.
    This is a very useless exercise to debate when we don’t know if JRich and Jak are going to be on the roster to start the season.

    There are better ways to make money.

    Regardless, what I am going to be watching is come AS break when other teams start resting guys or outright begin tanking, do we foolishly battle for a play-in spot. That is a market I’d be interested in and a true indication of PATFO’s strategic prowess (or lack thereof)

  11. #111
    Emperor Duncan>>>>>King James tim_duncan_fan's Avatar
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    Thanks!

  12. #112
    Veteran offset formation's Avatar
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    We don’t try to dump games at the end. Your evaluation of those other teams is flawed, because they WILL try to dump games at the end, when it becomes apparent they won’t make the playoffs. Did you have “SA finishes with a better record than Portland” on your dance card last year? Bet not.
    I didn't have, Dame Lilliard sits season, either.

  13. #113
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    In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

    And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

    I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

    My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.
    Wrong. They gained Murray and White playing a bigger role and McDermott providing a modi of spacing.

    DeRozan is also not a high impact player since he's useless off ball and defensively.

    This is the only team in the league with no one to so much as masquerade as a go-to creator/scorer and as such are the odds on favorite to finish with the worst record in the league. They can and should increase those odds by trading Poeltl and Richardson as soon as possible.

  14. #114
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    I didn't have, Dame Lilliard sits season, either.

    Grandpa Abe should NEVER talk about sports gambling. He is absolutely clueless in the topic.

  15. #115
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Wrong. They gained Murray and White playing a bigger role and McDermott providing a modi of spacing.

    DeRozan is also not a high impact player since he's useless off ball and defensively.

    This is the only team in the league with no one to so much as masquerade as a go-to creator/scorer and as such are the odds on favorite to finish with the worst record in the league. They can and should increase those odds by trading Poeltl and Richardson as soon as possible.
    Murray, definitely. White, yes, though to a much lesser extent because he played 900 fewer minutes for the Spurs than Murray and the team was 20-35 before the trade and 14-13 after.

    McDermott, no. McD only played 1223 minutes all season and was a net negative player, worse than everyone on the roster other than Forbes/Primo/Eubanks.

    I think DeRozan's impact is overrated by many (not you), but I disagree with your reasoning. Late Rockets James Harden wasn't all that useful off the ball (mostly because he dominated it so much) and was a turnstile on defense, but I'd still call him a high impact player.

    I agree that trading Poeltl and Richardson, assuming the price is right of course, makes sense. There's nothing to be gained by finishing 30-52 instead of 21-61 with an extra pick or two (by trading Poeltl/Richardson) and a higher natural pick.

    My prediction is not based on what I think the Spurs should do, but instead on what I think they will do. Which is a decent chance of not trading either Poeltl or Richardson (at least until the deadline), and actually trying to win games down the stretch when other teams start to really tank.

  16. #116
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    Murray, definitely. White, yes, though to a much lesser extent because he played 900 fewer minutes for the Spurs than Murray and the team was 20-35 before the trade and 14-13 after.McDermott, no. McD only played 1223 minutes all season and was a net negative player, worse than everyone on the roster other than Forbes/Primo/Eubanks.

    I think DeRozan's impact is overrated by many (not you), but I disagree with your reasoning. Late Rockets James Harden wasn't all that useful off the ball (mostly because he dominated it so much) and was a turnstile on defense, but I'd still call him a high impact player.

    I agree that trading Poeltl and Richardson, assuming the price is right of course, makes sense. There's nothing to be gained by finishing 30-52 instead of 21-61 with an extra pick or two (by trading Poeltl/Richardson) and a higher natural pick.

    My prediction is not based on what I think the Spurs should do, but instead on what I think they will do. Which is a decent chance of not trading either Poeltl or Richardson (at least until the deadline), and actually trying to win games down the stretch when other teams start to really tank.
    I realize that, but White playing more still helped while here and even though the metrics don't indicate as much, I still think McDermott's mere presence helped Murray, White and Poeltl offensively. Those three provided a floor that no longer exists.

    Harden at least had to be respected off ball and on ball he was in another stratosphere from DeRozan.

    I get it, but I think the mistake many are making is applying last season to this one when the cir stances are completely different. They can try all they want, the bottom line is they have the least/worst shot creation in the league and by post deadline at the latest there's a 99% chance Poeltl and Richardson will be traded.

  17. #117
    Wolf Ruvinskis tonight...you's Avatar
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    Grandpa Abe should NEVER talk about sports gambling. He is absolutely clueless in the topic.
    Lol. You're obsessed with people being old. Kind of weird.

  18. #118
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    I realize that, but White playing more still helped while here and even though the metrics don't indicate as much, I still think McDermott's mere presence helped Murray, White and Poeltl offensively. Those three provided a floor that no longer exists.

    Harden at least had to be respected off ball and on ball he was in another stratosphere from DeRozan.

    I get it, but I think the mistake many are making is applying last season to this one when the cir stances are completely different. They can try all they want, the bottom line is they have the least/worst shot creation in the league and by post deadline at the latest there's a 99% chance Poeltl and Richardson will be traded.
    McDermott is still here, for whatever that's worth. If his presence was a positive last season it presumably will be again this season.

    The only reason I brought up Harden is to say that it's possible to be a positive impact player while not being very useful off the ball and being bad at defense. I didn't mean to say that DeRozan was anywhere near as good as Harden. I agreed with your conclusion, just not the reasoning.

    I agree about the Spurs having the worst shot creation in the league. I don't think that will necessarily translate to the worst record, though. They could be 28th in offense and 22nd on defense, for example, and only have the 3rd or 4th worst record.

    I wish I could agree with you on the 99% chance of Poeltl and Richardson being traded. It makes perfect sense, it's just that I don't trust the FO to always do sensible things, so I put the chance at more like 85% that either one is traded and 75% that they both are. Them both being expiring drives their value down somewhat imo. That's also why my O/U for Spurs wins is higher than the Vegas line: Poeltl and Richardson are both positive-impact players, and if the Spurs carry them all the way to the deadline they will positively impact the Spurs' performance for 2/3 of the season. If the Spurs do trade both before the season then I would still take the over on 23.5, but not with as much confidence.

    My overall point is that, from a SRS perspective, the Spurs actually got better without DeRozan. They would have to suffer an 18-game downswing from there to go to 23 (expected) wins. I don't think losing Murray, who imo isn't as good as DeRozan, was that big a blow. Losing Poeltl and Richardson would complete this offseason's teardown.

  19. #119
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    McDermott is still here, for whatever that's worth. If his presence was a positive last season it presumably will be again this season.

    I agree about the Spurs having the worst shot creation in the league. I don't think that will necessarily translate to the worst record, though. They could be 28th in offense and 22nd on defense, for example, and only have the 3rd or 4th worst record.

    I wish I could agree with you on the 99% chance of Poeltl and Richardson being traded. It makes perfect sense, it's just that I don't trust the FO to always do sensible things, so I put the chance at more like 85% that either one is traded and 75% that they both are. Them both being expiring drives their value down somewhat imo. That's also why my O/U for Spurs wins is higher than the Vegas line: Poeltl and Richardson are both positive-impact players, and if the Spurs carry them all the way to the deadline they will positively impact the Spurs' performance for 2/3 of the season. If the Spurs do trade both before the season then I would still take the over on 23.5, but not with as much confidence.

    My overall point is that, from a SRS perspective, the Spurs actually got better without DeRozan. They would have to suffer an 18-game downswing from there to go to 23 (expected) wins. I don't think losing Murray, who imo isn't as good as DeRozan, was that big a blow. Losing Poeltl and Richardson would complete this offseason's teardown.
    I didn't mean to suggest McDermott was a positive overall, just that he added a dimension the starting lineup was missing by replacing DeRozan.

    Yeah, no guarantees. The Thunder two seasons ago looked like a historically awful team and were actually just run of the mill bad until they shamelessly tanked post All-Star break, shutting down virtually every credible player. Of course, they had Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an All-Star caliber level before that though.

    It may take longer than it should, but even the Spurs can't screw up trading Poeltl and Richardson.

    I don't think it's so much about Murray's caliber as what he represented, which was the only credible shot creator on the roster.

  20. #120
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    Fingers crossed for the "under' on this one. 24 wins probably doesn't get us into the top 3 picks.

  21. #121
    Veteran spurs1990's Avatar
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    Hey does anyone with insider access know if San Antonio is last on the espn plus projected wins ?
    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...-nba-champions

    They’re being picked as least amount of wins by the online oddsmakers yet strangely enough no early mock draft links have the Spurs picking first, or even top 3. On the surface they should be clear cut favorites for 1st draft pick with this roster.

  22. #122
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    Hey does anyone with insider access know if San Antonio is last on the espn plus projected wins ?
    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...-nba-champions

    They’re being picked as least amount of wins by the online oddsmakers yet strangely enough no early mock draft links have the Spurs picking first, or even top 3. On the surface they should be clear cut favorites for 1st draft pick with this roster.
    (24-58) 4th to last behind (22-60) HOU, (23-59) IND, (23-59) ORL. (25) OKC and (26) UTA are also in the mix.

  23. #123
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Has a #1 assistant been named so if Popped is unavailable _____ will coach?

  24. #124
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Has a #1 assistant been named so if Popped is unavailable _____ will coach?
    You might have even heard of the guy: Brett Brown.

    You really are ing stupid.

  25. #125
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    You might have even heard of the guy: Brett Brown.

    You really are ing stupid.
    Wow you sure showed me.

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