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  1. #51
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    That is accurate. In the overall population fatality rate is around .0025 to .0066, less than one percent, as long as medical care is available. People make much of the confirmed case load death rate, which misses the majority of cases that never get tested. That majority is four to seven times larger than the confirmed cases.

    It is also a bit misleading because that makes it way worse than the flu. One of the ways that the Republican party is collectively lying through its teeth, and through its propaganda machine.
    I wonder what the number of those with longterm-lifelong issues will be when all is said and done. This is to say nothing of the emotional and financial toll this is taking on everyone as well. It's a sandwich no matter how you slice it.

  2. #52
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavir...s-of-care-plan

    Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.
    Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego just confirmed it's happening in her city right now.

  3. #53
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Hope Thread is okay.

  4. #54
    Believe.
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    Bruh, that's where you and I have our differences. Trump is part of the plan. He's an actor. He's another Zionist freemason puppet.

    Unfortunately, he IS the chosen one to fulfill the NWO and Agenda 21.

    "I am the chosen one."

    - Donald Trump
    THIS. He loves his role, too. He totally embraces it.

    Again these three things happen regardless of who is in charge: 1. debt increases pretty much exponentially. 2. Gov't power grows. 3. War

  5. #55
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    THIS. He loves his role, too. He totally embraces it.

    Again these three things happen regardless of who is in charge: 1. debt increases pretty much exponentially. 2. Gov't power grows. 3. War
    So you also believe he is a puppet of the Chews?
    Just like all the other presidents?
    We may need to add you to the category of TGY youtuber.

    What happened to the debt under Clinton and a Republican Congress?

  6. #56
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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  7. #57
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    do you have a grandfather taking up space?

    and you were the one that said you wanted to make babies with as many Karen’s as possible?

    I mean that’s two strikes. You not only increase the population, but you pass on your genes that clearly drive you to mate with all the Karen’s you can?

    snap out of it dude and do your part...rip your testicles off.
    better to just get a vasectomy. It's reversible

  8. #58
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Trying to Philo, but I was arguing against the exaggerated 2 million dead projections with disaster porn from Italy being played on a loop. Fear=/=panic.

    And yes, playing up the virus as the second coming of the Black Plague during that time did have effects.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/...-away-from-er/
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...th-atrisk.html
    https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-mental-health

    I "fear" this disease, but I'm not depressed nor having panic attacks about it (and I have panic disorder). You can be informative without being hypebolic and fear-mongering.
    2M was with 0 precautions. Same model had less than 100k deaths if proper precautions were taken

  9. #59
    Veteran Fabbs's Avatar
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    Have you curtailed your exposure to Iranians because of this?

    I've quit going to the busy deli / restaurant that has tons.

    I will continue to grant interviews to Sheena Parveen on the left. Horsey teeth on r is also a news anchor.

  10. #60
    Believe.
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    But we already got complacent. Anyhow, Iran's situation should act as a cautionary tale about why you don't declare victory too soon, with such re ed claims as "the virus has a natural curve!" and other such nonsense. Here was Iran's projection in May (from one of the most accurate models out there)



    Iran was one of the first global hotspots and were pacing with Italy early on. They got their outbreak under control quickly, with a lockdown, but we're lulled into a false sense of security. If Iran were the US during their period of decline, we'd have a bunch of "skeptics" on the likes of twitter telling us about how we overreacted, how the virus has a "natural progression," and how it's naturally dying out. Time to reopen and stop the fear mongering!

    Let's see how Iran is looking now:




    Notice their "double hump" curve (feel free to make a camel joke) and keep that mind. Also notice how case increases do indeed lag deaths, as we know. Iran was ing over mid May, but their fatality rate was still comparatively low. Again, if Iran were the US during this time, we'd get the same deflections from "the skeptics" that there's nothing to worry about. Sure cases are ing, but the death rate is flat!

    Now about that double hump curve. Let's look at the US's case and death trend.



    Looking mighty similar to Iran.

    Now some might ask why is Iran experiencing a first wave resurgence (this isn't a second wave), while Italy, UK, and other European countries aren't? Because Iran didn't lock down long enough. They started easing restrictions only a couple of weeks after their peak. Italy locked down for about 2 months. Furthermore, Iran is obviously more religious than Europe, and Mosques were again full when restrictions were eased. Sound familiar? But addition to churches being vectors here, we also have bars and clubs, something not as prevalent in Iran.

    What's this portend for the US? Not sure. Our peak was driven by a rather unique situation in New York, so I don't expect a plateau of 2K deaths daily like that. But even though we might not get a 2K per day figure, I think this current wave might be worse in a sense (not necessarily in deaths per day) since it's spread out among more states. During the peak, it was a "New York problem," or that's how the skeptics spun it. But now it's a problem in AZ, TX, FL, with CA and GA starting to grow, along with some smaller states.

    I don't think a plateau of 1000-1200 with a daily peak that might near 2K is out of the question.
    wrong.

  11. #61
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    2M was with 0 precautions. Same model had less than 100k deaths if proper precautions were taken
    The projection was 60 million infected, 2 million dead in the FIRST wave if were no precautions were taken. Again, the big problem here is that it assumes an IFR (not CFR) of 3 percent, which was Wuhan's CFR at the time. The best IFR estimates are .003-.006. Now if you want to claim healthcare system collapse would drive up the IFR 10 to 5 times above the baseline, fair enough, but there's no evidence that it would or that Covid could overwhelm every region in the United States. The Diamond Princess was an untended experiment that revealed a few interesting things. Essentially a floating mini-city where a worst case do-nothing scenario was taking place in real time, where healthcare services were obviously insufficient, and where the population was older than average, and the CFR wound up being around 1 percent.

  12. #62
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Show your math

  13. #63
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    he never will.

    He's too humiliated.

  14. #64
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    ?

    Not sure what you're implying? The states that had early success are now getting hit. When Italy was recording around 200 daily deaths is when the world started to get rather alarmed, with videos from citizens and doctors begging the world to take it seriously. Texas just recorded 107 deaths today. Their population is half that of Italy's. California recorded 135 deaths.

    Consequences of opening up everything too soon and a segment of the population too boneheaded to just wear a ing mask.

  15. #65
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    The projection was 60 million infected, 2 million dead in the FIRST wave if were no precautions were taken. Again, the big problem here is that it assumes an IFR (not CFR) of 3 percent, which was Wuhan's CFR at the time. The best IFR estimates are .003-.006. Now if you want to claim healthcare system collapse would drive up the IFR 10 to 5 times above the baseline, fair enough, but there's no evidence that it would or that Covid could overwhelm every region in the United States. The Diamond Princess was an untended experiment that revealed a few interesting things. Essentially a floating mini-city where a worst case do-nothing scenario was taking place in real time, where healthcare services were obviously insufficient, and where the population was older than average, and the CFR wound up being around 1 percent.
    i believe the imperial study stated outright that they were not accounting for that in their model

  16. #66
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    i believe the imperial study stated outright that they were not accounting for that in their model
    Then yeah, the study was way, way off. The virus isn't lethal enough to kill two million from 60 million infected. And as other studies started to shed more light on the virus's true lethality, the media kept rolling with the Imperial projections while screaming Italy.

    I just want balanced reporting. I also don't like the fear porn stories about 16 year olds dying and such. Yes, those incidents should be reported, but people should also be made aware of the chances of a teenager dying from the disease. This is important information for parents and such who want to make informed decisions about the risk/benefit of opening schools.

    And when the media DOESN'T report those facts and just click baits with "16 year dies of Covid," it actually fuels conspiracy theories, i.e., "Yeah, yeah, but the media isn't telling us that teenagers only have a .000001 chance of dying, which is less than the flu. Agenda!!!!"

  17. #67
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Have you curtailed your exposure to Iranians because of this?

    I've quit going to the busy deli / restaurant that has tons.

    I will continue to grant interviews to Sheena Parveen on the left. Horsey teeth on r is also a news anchor.
    You are one creepy mother er.

  18. #68
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Then yeah, the study was way, way off. The virus isn't lethal enough to kill two million from 60 million infected. And as other studies started to shed more light on the virus's true lethality, the media kept rolling with the Imperial projections while screaming Italy.

    I just want balanced reporting. I also don't like the fear porn stories about 16 year olds dying and such. Yes, those incidents should be reported, but people should also be made aware of the chances of a teenager dying from the disease. This is important information for parents and such who want to make informed decisions about the risk/benefit of opening schools.

    And when the media DOESN'T report those facts and just click baits with "16 year dies of Covid," it actually fuels conspiracy theories, i.e., "Yeah, yeah, but the media isn't telling us that teenagers only have a .000001 chance of dying, which is less than the flu. Agenda!!!!"
    i think its inevitable that a model so early on was going to be flawed, but it was based on the evidence we had at the time. i take no issue with models being adjusted as data rolls in, and during our early conversations i was never holding the imperial study as gospel or whatever the characterization was.

    the precise number of the high end estimate was never really at issue because nobody was actually going to sit on their hands and let this thing burn through with zero steps in any direction, especially when we were already seeing exactly what was happening in italy at the same time. i was never making any specific projections... just that it was not sound to assume that NY was going to be isolated and then everything was going to be ok after that

  19. #69
    Watching the collapse benefactor's Avatar
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    You are one creepy mother er.
    Its like every topic he finds some random pic of a woman to post. I guarantee hes the dude in the store waiting for a woman to bend over in a low cut shirt so he can film it with his phone

  20. #70
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Deaths are starting to move into that new "hump."


  21. #71
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    Deaths are starting to move into that new "hump."

    1000s more deaths on Trash's hands, on top of the 100K+ deaths so far in The Trump Pandemic

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