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  1. #2376
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    The extra effort anger
    The extra effort chime in.

  2. #2377
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Aside from the shin-kicking, I'm curious what the response is to Snakeboy's point? If a vaccine is developed in the near-term (i.e., end of the year), great. But if not, and effective treatments are 3, 5, or even 10 years away, what then? Seems to me that there's going to have to be some hard decisions made - exposing certain groups, like small business owners, to economic oblivion or at-risk people to serious health issues and/or death.

    There really hasn't been much of a discussion as to where we see this all going over at least the next 12-18 months. I don't profess to have a plan, but I don't think the opening/closing dance that Texas is doing is workable. I'm all for good hygiene, masks, etc..., but that doesn't seem to me to be a solution either. So what are the options? Another nationwide lockdown for 6 weeks? Letting this thing burn through the population?
    I posted the idea of making things easier for the vulnerable to stay out of it while the rest of us try to herd it up. Seems easier to accommodate them than picking out sectors of the economy to shut down.

  3. #2378
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    I posted the idea of making things easier for the vulnerable to stay out of it while the rest of us try to herd it up. Seems easier to accommodate them than picking out sectors of the economy to shut down.
    Oh, I'm absolutely in favor of that. Frankly, don't understand why limited UBI, universal health care, assistance with groceries, etc... aren't made available to 70+ individuals. To me, enacting some kind of sequestration while also providing a level of support while the rest of us return to normal is a good idea. Unfortunately, that demographic is populated with a bunch of boomers who'll muh freedom and act like their inability to go to fuddruckers is cruel and unusual punishment.

  4. #2379
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, we can't trust Americans to ever do the smart thing.
    So then communism or fascism are the best forms of governmwng tbqh.

  5. #2380
    Veteran weebo's Avatar
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    So then communism or fascism are the best forms of governmwng tbqh.
    We're half a fascist country--haven't you been paying attention?

  6. #2381
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    I already told I don't have the plan. Why is it so hard for you to understand?

    Without a vaccine the destination is the same for every state, every country. You guys are so focused on whether we should take the short route or the scenic route but we're all headed to Painzville in the end.
    Lol "you guys"

    Short route vs scenic route is a false dilemma. But it's pretty funny how you're taking the scenic route to just saying "might as well just open it all up just the way it was pre covid".

    Wuss
    Last edited by Blake; 06-27-2020 at 05:47 PM.

  7. #2382
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    Aside from the shin-kicking, I'm curious what the response is to Snakeboy's point? If a vaccine is developed in the near-term (i.e., end of the year), great. But if not, and effective treatments are 3, 5, or even 10 years away, what then? Seems to me that there's going to have to be some hard decisions made - exposing certain groups, like small business owners, to economic oblivion or at-risk people to serious health issues and/or death.

    There really hasn't been much of a discussion as to where we see this all going over at least the next 12-18 months. I don't profess to have a plan, but I don't think the opening/closing dance that Texas is doing is workable. I'm all for good hygiene, masks, etc..., but that doesn't seem to me to be a solution either. So what are the options? Another nationwide lockdown for 6 weeks? Letting this thing burn through the population?
    I don't like the cherry picking of types of businesses that must close for X amount of days. Let everyone stay open but just mandate strict requirements starting with wearing a ing mask

  8. #2383
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    A vaccine in less than another year seems like a long shot to me. A covid specific drug cure seems like a longer shot.

    They should have included the most likely scenario which is that we have to reach herd immunity infection rate of ~70% and how long that is going to take. Then they could have just looked at mortality rate & deaths to gauge how far we have to go. If they took a best case scenario of .1% mortality then we are about 33% to herd immunity and still have another ~200k deaths to go. Although it seems pretty clear we are not that far along so bump the mortality rate up to .3% and we have even longer haul in front of us.

    It just isn't feasible to shelter in place to the end of this.
    The odds of developing a vaccine (or, I would even argue, the virus mutating into a milder form) are much, much greater than reaching 70% herd immunity. You have to understand that people do not want to get infected out of their own volition, that in order to return to normalcy through herd immunity, that ~70% number doesn't apply to just the US, but also first world countries and possibly developing countries (globalization is a ). We might reach herd immunity at some point in the next 50 years, like it happened with the flu, especially if there's a vaccine, but it's not a realistic target.

    EDIT: Add 'finding a suitable treatment' to the options above that have much better odds.

  9. #2384
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Aside from the shin-kicking, I'm curious what the response is to Snakeboy's point? If a vaccine is developed in the near-term (i.e., end of the year), great. But if not, and effective treatments are 3, 5, or even 10 years away, what then? Seems to me that there's going to have to be some hard decisions made - exposing certain groups, like small business owners, to economic oblivion or at-risk people to serious health issues and/or death.

    There really hasn't been much of a discussion as to where we see this all going over at least the next 12-18 months. I don't profess to have a plan, but I don't think the opening/closing dance that Texas is doing is workable. I'm all for good hygiene, masks, etc..., but that doesn't seem to me to be a solution either. So what are the options? Another nationwide lockdown for 6 weeks? Letting this thing burn through the population?
    See my previous post.

  10. #2385
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    I don't like the cherry picking of types of businesses that must close for X amount of days. Let everyone stay open but just mandate strict requirements starting with wearing a ing mask
    So what do you do with bars or restaurants?

  11. #2386
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    See my previous post.
    So then what?

  12. #2387
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    the irony is SnakeBoy tried to do exactly the same thing but he's on your Trump team so everything is cool.
    I know you just do that to try to irritate me and "win" the internet but for about the 100th time I have never been on the Trump team and you know it. You really are pathetic.

  13. #2388
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    So herd immunity is not a goal or solution, it will just happen if all the other options fail (or even if they don't).

    We keep investing in vaccines and improving treatment drugs and outcomes until this is manageable, and we keep taking precautions in the meantime. Sometimes that will mean to slow things down when there's massive flares, and that also means the death ticker continues to go up.

    This is not the first pandemic or the first coronavirus, it's not like we're flying completely in the dark here, so that makes me hopeful that we'll see either a vaccine or a medicine that at least prevents death from this disease in the next 1-3 years.

    In the meantime, bootstrap, let take out and delivery be our new normal (I can get used to that), and accept we're in a health emergency situation.

  14. #2389
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    So what do you do with bars or restaurants?
    I haven't really looked, have restaurants been a problem? The bars that weren't following guidelines were getting shut down by TABC.

    Require masks unless eating food, no groups of more than [insert number], maintain distance, etc.

    The hardest part to me is the interaction between customer and waiter/waitress. May have to figure out a way to limit their interaction with the table. Dunno the details but I know if chipotle can do it..

  15. #2390
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    I know you just do that to try to irritate me

  16. #2391
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    The point is, you can't force people not to wear masks or take care of themselves and actively avoid being infected, so letting the virus 'burn' through the population is not a plan you can realistically execute.

    And as long as there's no suitable good treatment or vaccine, the tension of further waves and pressure in the healthcare system will be there. To potentially allay that particular fear, you could increase hospital capacity to obscene numbers, but that doesn't really work out in our largely private and for-profit hospital system.

  17. #2392
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    So herd immunity is not a goal or solution, it will just happen if all the other options fail (or even if they don't).

    We keep investing in vaccines and improving treatment drugs and outcomes until this is manageable, and we keep taking precautions in the meantime. Sometimes that will mean to slow things down when there's massive flares, and that also means the death ticker continues to go up.

    This is not the first pandemic or the first coronavirus, it's not like we're flying completely in the dark here, so that makes me hopeful that we'll see either a vaccine or a medicine that at least prevents death from this disease in the next 1-3 years.

    In the meantime, bootstrap, let take out and delivery be our new normal (I can get used to that), and accept we're in a health emergency situation.
    That’s all good in theory if you have an optimistic view of when therapeutics will be available. I’m not so optimistic. We could do as you say only by sacrificing the entertainment and hospitality industries. Bars can’t operate on takeout. Nor can movie theatres, music venues, actual theatres, etc. Now you may say, we’re in a health emergency so something like the wholesale elimination of certain economic sectors is inevitable/necessary. Which is fine, I just don’t strike the balance that way.

  18. #2393
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    I haven't really looked, have restaurants been a problem? The bars that weren't following guidelines were getting shut down by TABC.

    Require masks unless eating food, no groups of more than [insert number], maintain distance, etc.

    The hardest part to me is the interaction between customer and waiter/waitress. May have to figure out a way to limit their interaction with the table. Dunno the details but I know if chipotle can do it..
    Yeah, it’s tough. One thought is to move all entertainment outdoors, which works for movies (ie rooftop cinema), bars, and music venues. But that’s not feasible en masse

  19. #2394
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    That’s all good in theory if you have an optimistic view of when therapeutics will be available. I’m not so optimistic. We could do as you say only by sacrificing the entertainment and hospitality industries. Bars can’t operate on takeout. Nor can movie theatres, music venues, actual theatres, etc. Now you may say, we’re in a health emergency so something like the wholesale elimination of certain economic sectors is inevitable/necessary. Which is fine, I just don’t strike the balance that way.
    I just don't really think it's entirely up to authorities or their plans. Some people that are non-essential have gone back to work, some with precautions, some without, because of necessity. Airlines have been generally flying, people just don't want to hop on a plane if they can avoid it. Same with cruise ships. Early on, I recall reading people quitting their jobs over concerns on how their companies are dealing with the pandemic. For the tech sector, working from home is not that much of a huge difference, and in general have been doing well, so I don't think you'll see any kind of urgency there to get infected. I do know a few companies in that sector that are actually very concerned about their employees getting potentially infected and sick, and the cascading effect that has on their bottom lines.

    I do think it'll be pivotal on authorities how they handle inevitable flares, capacity issues, testing, contact tracing, etc that might pop up in the meantime, because those are structural problems, makes politicos look bad, and have measurable deaths attached to them.

  20. #2395
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    I just don't really think it's entirely up to authorities or their plans. Some people that are non-essential have gone back to work, some with precautions, some without, because of necessity. Airlines have been generally flying, people just don't want to hop on a plane if they can avoid it. Same with cruise ships. Early on, I recall reading people quitting their jobs over concerns on how their companies are dealing with the pandemic. For the tech sector, working from home is not that much of a huge difference, and in general have been doing well, so I don't think you'll see any kind of urgency there to get infected. I do know a few companies in that sector that are actually very concerned about their employees getting potentially infected and sick, and the cascading effect that has on their bottom lines.

    I do think it'll be pivotal on authorities how they handle inevitable flares, capacity issues, testing, contact tracing, etc that might pop up in the meantime, because those are structural problems, makes politicos look bad, and have measurable deaths attached to them.
    All good points. But I think we’re talking past each other somewhat. So there are many economic sectors that will survive just fine. Many of which you’ve identified. My thinking is more directed by what Abbott wheeled out here in Texas yesterday. Because so much of our entertainment is social, it’s hard for me to envision what can be done - either at the individual business level or at the governmental level - to strike a balance between safety and economic viability. To be clear, I’m talking about entertainment businesses like bars, restaurants, theatres, etc.

    Maybe the takeaway is that those places are ed, and there’s nothing to do to save them. I personally don’t like that approach at all. But, I do think it inevitable if we say we’re going to hold out until we have good medical treatment for this thing.

  21. #2396
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    All good points. But I think we’re talking past each other somewhat. So there are many economic sectors that will survive just fine. Many of which you’ve identified. My thinking is more directed by what Abbott wheeled out here in Texas yesterday. Because so much of our entertainment is social, it’s hard for me to envision what can be done - either at the individual business level or at the governmental level - to strike a balance between safety and economic viability. To be clear, I’m talking about entertainment businesses like bars, restaurants, theatres, etc.

    Maybe the takeaway is that those places are ed, and there’s nothing to do to save them. I personally don’t like that approach at all. But, I do think it inevitable if we say we’re going to hold out until we have good medical treatment for this thing.
    Well, if we're talking in economic terms, I think it's highly dependent on what people end up buying into past lockdown fatigue. If social distancing becomes the preferred route, some of these businesses will have to respect it, and work at diminished capacity. But you also will see scarcity for the most popular places, which could be a temporary opportunity also (either through expansion or charging more).

    If it's a free for all again, then that's what it is, but the virus is not going to stop spreading or being a problem, so here is where government leadership will have to deal with all the stuff we were talking about earlier, hospital capacity, testing, deaths, etc, and will have to occasionally make a call. If that means some businesses can't adapt and don't survive, it sucks, but it is what it is. The whole reason to do this management is not to find a cure, or even stop spread, it's just to manage the situation with the resources we have. You either increase the resources, or you manage the ones you have as best you can, with whatever the collateral is. There's really not a lot of options here. Politically and generally, I would think, it's much harder to sell deaths as justified over bankruptcy.

  22. #2397
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    I know you just do that to try to irritate me and "win" the internet but for about the 100th time I have never been on the Trump team and you know it. You really are pathetic.
    Really the worst thing I have ever read from you about Trump is that he's a blowhard and a jackass. Absolutely nothing about what he does as president.

  23. #2398
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Got this alert as 700+ new cases reported in SA today.


    Last edited by TimDunkem; 06-27-2020 at 07:31 PM.

  24. #2399
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    I already told I don't have the plan. Why is it so hard for you to understand?

    Without a vaccine the destination is the same for every state, every country. You guys are so focused on whether we should take the short route or the scenic route but we're all headed to Painzville in the end.
    I'd hope we don't have to take the shortest route since it likely involves many more excess deaths due to overflowing our hospital systems. Now if you asked me how to accomplish that or if it's even possible without slowing the infection down so much we just keep having wave after wave I'd have to give a big shoulder shrug.

  25. #2400
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    I don't like the cherry picking of types of businesses that must close for X amount of days. Let everyone stay open but just mandate strict requirements starting with wearing a ing mask
    Indoor seating at bars, indoor restaurant dining rooms, and gyms absolutely need to be cherry picked if the hospitals look to be overrun because the first two you can't really operate with masks and the last even when you're wearing a mask you're breathing hard and exhaling way more droplets than usual. And I'd be surprised if many people would wear masks to gyms anyways. Plus all three are built on the idea of people staying inside for long periods.
    Last edited by baseline bum; 06-27-2020 at 07:45 PM.

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