It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.
When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.
Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.