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  1. #26
    6X ST MVP
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    Moving past cherp's tears...

    “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
    However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.

  2. #27
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I'm sure this thread will be bump material no matter what happens.

    Also, my understanding is that this model actually started predicting in 1996 (per here).

    He got it wrong in 2000, fixed it up a bit, and this is going to be the 6th prediction? Doesn't sound like a big sample size.

    But hey, I think it's still early to make a call on this. Definitely a weird electoral year, and a lot of things that can change from here to november.

  3. #28
    non-essential Chris's Avatar
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    lol "Pre-Floyd"

  4. #29
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    Which in bent ran

    ... with 10% unemployment? (not true in other countries)

    ... a cratered economy (not true in other countries)

    ... 200K dead, 100Ks more damaged from incompetence? USA World Champion!

    ... overall approval under 40%

    ... Repug approval dropping?


  5. #30
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    If Biden wins who is the POTUS? Because it won't be Biden.

    Scary.

    If Trump wins, we eventually get a vaccine for covid, but then swine flu hits us and Trump acts like it doesn't exist just as he did with covid.

    Scary.

    Insert Yeezy as your next POTUS.

    Not a positive reason.

  6. #31
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    What’s with this obsession with the Biden’s death talk.

    Same thing in 2016. Some of you couldn’t shut up about how she wasn’t going to make it 4 years. ST predictors ftw

  7. #32
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    What’s with this obsession with the Biden’s death talk.

    Same thing in 2016. Some of you couldn’t shut up about how she wasn’t going to make it 4 years. ST predictors ftw
    While Joe at times looks feeble, Drump isn't exactly chipper looking.

  8. #33
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Trump is gonna get crushed.

  9. #34
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If Biden wins who is the POTUS? Because it won't be Biden.

    Scary.

    If Trump wins, we eventually get a vaccine for covid, but then swine flu hits us and Trump acts like it doesn't exist just as he did with covid.

    Scary.

    Insert Yeezy as your next POTUS.
    Pretty much gautanteed it will be his VP that will finish the first term and win the second.

  10. #35
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    While Joe at times looks feeble, Drump isn't exactly chipper looking.
    It's a ridiculous choice. There really should be a mental competency test for politicians once they hit 60 or so.
    Heck, maybe don't even put an age restriction on it.

  11. #36
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Trump is gonna get crushed.
    and he is going to drag the bull party he took over down with him. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

  12. #37
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    and he is going to drag the bull party he took over down with him.
    Wishful thinking.

  13. #38
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Joe not being president is positive reason
    Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
    Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
    If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
    200 judges in place
    Trump has had at least one stroke.

    The weakness and awkwardness drinking water gives it away.

  14. #39
    Chunky Brazil's Avatar
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    Joe not being president is positive reason
    Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
    Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
    If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
    200 judges in place
    not tired of sucking Trump tbh ?

  15. #40
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    To some degree. Driving massive Democratic turnout isn't going to help Republicans keep office.

  16. #41
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
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    To some degree. Driving massive Democratic turnout isn't going to help Republicans keep office.
    "We need the rioters to vote for us"

    Speaking of rubbish party

  17. #42
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    Not really.

    Republican voters were already loons. Trump allowed them to take off their masks.

    If Trump loses, the base won't go back to their holes and be secretly racist anymore. They want a culture war and with Trump gone most republican politicians will get amnesia and say they never liked or knew Trump anyway.

    I dont see them turning out for chumps like Rubio.

  18. #43
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Not really.

    Republican voters were already loons. Trump allowed them to take off their masks.

    If Trump loses, the base won't go back to their holes and be secretly racist anymore. They want a culture war and with Trump gone most republican politicians will get amnesia and say they never liked or knew Trump anyway.

    I dont see them turning out for chumps like Rubio.
    Yeah I heard the same about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

    Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

    Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.

  19. #44
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    The pandemic and its economic destruction are voting for Biden

    200K dead, 100Ks debilitated survivors, and 10% unemployment on 3 Nov

    Let's make a bet. If Trump wins, you kill yourself. If Biden wins, I'll pay you three times what your mom collects off you from SSI. So...like $350? I'm still outdoing the value of your life by $349. It's a good bet in your favor. Worst case scenario, they start a GoFundMe to throw your ashes in a Ralph's dumpster.

  20. #45
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Let's make a bet. If Trump wins, you kill yourself. If Biden wins, I'll pay you three times what your mom collects off you from SSI. So...like $350? I'm still outdoing the value of your life by $349. It's a good bet in your favor. Worst case scenario, they start a GoFundMe to throw your ashes in a Ralph's dumpster.

  21. #46
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    double post

  22. #47
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
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    Yeah I heard the same about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

    Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

    Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.
    25% of nation is conservative
    25% of nation is liberal
    50% of nation is in the middle

  23. #48
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Yeah I heard the same about Sarah Palin being the one who’d “expose” the Republican Party as loons.

    Its still 40% of the country which is enough to win elections when the other 60% doesn’t have consistent voter turnout.

    Theyll find another Trump to run in 4 years.
    Whoever they find will be painted as Trump 2.0, and lose. Four more years of whites aging out and young hispanics aging in will take its toll on Texas' landscape. Those kids don't even have to vote at higher rates than they have historically to change that, but I can tell you the kids in my wifes classes are MAD. I think Trump has lost a generation for the Republican party.

    Once Republicans lose their grip on Texas, they will not see the White House again. They won this time by 77,000 votes with the single most unpopular Democratic candidate I can remember.

  24. #49
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Republicans currently have the White House, the courts, and the senate. Of the 3 branches of government at the federal level, Republicans control 2.5 of them. At the state and local level they control most state legislatures and most gubernational seats.

    Anyone declaring the death of the Republican Party is detached from reality.

  25. #50
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    25% of nation is conservative
    25% of nation is liberal
    50% of nation thinks they both suck and doesn’t give a
    fify

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