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  1. #1
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    We all knew this was coming, but here it is.

    Stanton already announced he's not running and he was the only other candidate who'd have made this a real primary. The field is basically cleared for Gallego, while the GOP primary in the state is going to be a show.


  2. #2
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    Sinema said she wasn’t running right?

    Dumb neutered herself and now appeals to zero groups.

  3. #3
    Believe. Adam Lambert's Avatar
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    Sinema said she wasn’t running right?

    Dumb neutered herself and now appeals to zero groups.
    She has a big salary waiting for her, she'll be fine.

  4. #4
    Believe.
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    Isnt sinema running as an Independent now?

    i could see her (I)

    Gallego (D)

    Lake (R)

    all running…

  5. #5
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Sinema said she wasn’t running right?

    Dumb neutered herself and now appeals to zero groups.
    https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for...00197/1672721/

  6. #6
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Sinema said she wasn’t running right?

    Dumb neutered herself and now appeals to zero groups.
    She hasn't said what her plans are, but she's definitely not running as a Democrat.

    I'll take the under on her running tho since she has no chance of winning and is too much of a lazy clam smacking to put work into a campaign that's capped at 10% of the vote.

  7. #7
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    She hasn't said what her plans are, but she's definitely not running as a Democrat.

    I'll take the under on her running tho since she has no chance of winning and is too much of a lazy clam smacking to put work into a campaign that's capped at 10% of the vote.
    wouldn’t she get a -ton of republican votes since she basically follows their agenda?

    and there is talk kari lake is being financed to also run and stir up

  8. #8
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    wouldn’t she get a -ton of republican votes since she basically follows their agenda?

    and there is talk kari lake is being financed to also run and stir up
    No. She wouldn’t get a lot of votes from either side because people generally prefer to vote for candidates who have a chance of winning.

    The GOP field is going to be a show unlike anything from previous years. David Schweikert is probably going to run since he’s toast in his current house seat if he ran again in 2024, Blake Masters () is interested in running again, some inbred hillbilly sheriff who believes in QAnon wants to run, Karrin Taylor-Robson (easily the best possible GOP candidate of the ones who might actually enter the race) is considering a run, and yes there’s rumors that Kari Lake will get in the senate race as well.

    There’s going to be a lot of Republican wet dreams about Ducey getting in the race but all of the reports say he’s not interested.

  9. #9
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    She hasn't said what her plans are, but she's definitely not running as a Democrat.

    I'll take the under on her running tho since she has no chance of winning and is too much of a lazy clam smacking to put work into a campaign that's capped at 10% of the vote.
    I think there's a good chance she'll run as a spoiler candidate the same way the old bag who was bankrolled by Nike did for the OR governorship. Then go to her cushy lobbyist job after ensuring no progressive gets elected in the Arizona senate race.

  10. #10
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Sinema said she wasn’t running right?

    Dumb neutered herself and now appeals to zero groups.
    She left the Democrat party to avoid a 100% certain loss in the primary. Now she can run as a spoiler to neuter the democrats.

  11. #11
    Believe.
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    I think there's a good chance she'll run as a spoiler candidate the same way the old bag who was bankrolled by Nike did for the OR governorship. Then go to her cushy lobbyist job after ensuring no progressive gets elected in the Arizona senate race.
    this

  12. #12
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I think there's a good chance she'll run as a spoiler candidate the same way the old bag who was bankrolled by Nike did for the OR governorship. Then go to her cushy lobbyist job after ensuring no progressive gets elected in the Arizona senate race.
    She's already earned the cushy job no matter what she does, and she's not someone who's wired to spend 2 years on a campaign just for the sake of playing spoiler.

    You're not realizing that our laughable campaign laws make it so the $10 million or so she's raised in her campaign committee can largely get funneled to her if she decides not to run. That's her angle here, she's being vague about whether or not she's going to run because she wants to keep raising money that she can later use to pay herself.

  13. #13
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    She left the Democrat party to avoid a 100% certain loss in the primary. Now she can run as a spoiler to neuter the democrats.
    This is "conventional wisdom" re ation.

    Unless the GOP clears the field for her (they're not going to) she's not going to take materially more votes from one side vs. the other.

    Gallego's baseline is 45%, that's the percent that voted for a progressive Dem as treasurer over Kimberly Yee. That 45% isn't going to vote for Sinema or a Republican over Gallego, and it won't take that much more than said 45% for Gallego to win by plurality in a 4 way race against Sinema, the GOP nutcase that runs, and the usual lolbertarian in AZ who gets 2-3% of the vote.

  14. #14
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    This is "conventional wisdom" re ation.

    Unless the GOP clears the field for her (they're not going to) she's not going to take materially more votes from one side vs. the other.

    Gallego's baseline is 45%, that's the percent that voted for a progressive Dem as treasurer over Kimberly Yee. That 45% isn't going to vote for Sinema or a Republican over Gallego, and it won't take that much more than said 45% for Gallego to win by plurality in a 4 way race against Sinema, the GOP nutcase that runs, and the usual lolbertarian in AZ who gets 2-3% of the vote.
    you sound like you know more about this than I -

    and if you think Gallego can take it - I sure hope you are 100% spot on!

  15. #15
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    ...altho'

    arizona DOES have some ing re s like DUCKS AND THREAD-

    so not holding my breath either!

  16. #16
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    ...altho'

    arizona DOES have some ing re s like DUCKS AND THREAD-

    so not holding my breath either!
    Fortunately said re s are why the Arizona GOP keeps nominating unelectable Republicans

  17. #17
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    This is "conventional wisdom" re ation.

    Unless the GOP clears the field for her (they're not going to) she's not going to take materially more votes from one side vs. the other.

    Gallego's baseline is 45%, that's the percent that voted for a progressive Dem as treasurer over Kimberly Yee. That 45% isn't going to vote for Sinema or a Republican over Gallego, and it won't take that much more than said 45% for Gallego to win by plurality in a 4 way race against Sinema, the GOP nutcase that runs, and the usual lolbertarian in AZ who gets 2-3% of the vote.
    Wish I could share your optimism, but Arizona elections have been coming down to razor thin margins with hard right fascists just barely losing to centrist democrats. Sinema picking off a couple of points could easily swing the 2024 to the fascists. And this is pretty much Sinema's only play.

  18. #18
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Wish I could share your optimism, but Arizona elections have been coming down to razor thin margins with hard right fascists just barely losing to centrist democrats. Sinema picking off a couple of points could easily swing the 2024 to the fascists. And this is pretty much Sinema's only play.
    Arizona has had a senate election in 2018, 2020 and 2022. The Dem won every time, each time by a larger margin despite it being an gradually less favorable environment for Dems. Sinema barely won as a centrist Dem in a D+9 wave environment, and Kelly won by 5 as a partisan Dem who supports nuking the filibuster in a year when Dem turnout was way down.

  19. #19
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    Wish I could share your optimism, but Arizona elections have been coming down to razor thin margins with hard right fascists just barely losing to centrist democrats. Sinema picking off a couple of points could easily swing the 2024 to the fascists. And this is pretty much Sinema's only play.
    It hasn't been close, tbh.

    Arizona just takes long to do their thing. Winning by 20k in Arizona is a lot. Kelly sealed the deal the same night. That's a good sign the dems are in good standing there.

  20. #20
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Arizona has had a senate election in 2018, 2020 and 2022. The Dem won every time, each time by a larger margin despite it being an gradually less favorable environment for Dems. Sinema barely won as a centrist Dem in a D+9 wave environment, and Kelly won by 5 as a partisan Dem who supports nuking the filibuster in a year when Dem turnout was way down.
    It hasn't been close, tbh.

    Arizona just takes long to do their thing. Winning by 20k in Arizona is a lot. Kelly sealed the deal the same night. That's a good sign the dems are in good standing there.
    Kelly was a really strong candidate, someone like him might even have a fighting chance in Texas given how close Beto got to taking out Cruz. You think Gallego is anywhere close to as strong a candidate? Because say in the governor election Hobbs was pretty uninspiring and just barely eeked out the win over MAGA re Lake.

  21. #21
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    People like ducks vote in AZ, tbh... we're talking bottom of the barrel here...

  22. #22
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Kelly was a really strong candidate, someone like him might even have a fighting chance in Texas given how close Beto got to taking out Cruz. You think Gallego is anywhere close to as strong a candidate? Because say in the governor election Hobbs was pretty uninspiring and just barely eeked out the win over MAGA re Lake.
    Kelly being a good candidate doesn’t take away from how the state is trending. A Dem winning a senate race in AZ by 5% despite it being an R+2% generic ballot environment wouldn’t have been possible 4 years ago.

    To answer your question though, Gallego was the one Dem house candidate in AZ who outperformered Biden’s 2020 margin in his district in 2022, and he did it despite horrid be@ner turnout, so yes I think he’s a good candidate.

  23. #23
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    Gallego pockets $1M in first 24 hours

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