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  1. #201
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    0 is expected deaths? Are you ing listening to yourself? SERIOUSLY, PULL YOUR ING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS ALREADY.

    Just no. Texas does not expect 0 deaths on any given day. It's not a ing baseline as you put it.

    To school you further, 0 is not a baseline for anything. And there is no 'expected deaths' line.
    However, there is an excess deaths line that could be 0 on any given day if expected number of deaths and observed number of deaths are the same. And it is relatively close to 0 for 2017-2019 because on those days, the CDC had reasonable expectations.
    Now when you create a ed model that calls for thousands of extra deaths per day and it doesn't happen, that's how you get a e in excess deaths (not an actual deaths measurement) in 2020.




  2. #202
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    the point of that chart is to show that right now texas has over 5000 of those "excess deaths" this year from march through present (or present at the time the data was gathered), but they only reported about 2k covid deaths, indicating there are another 3000+ excess deaths unaccounted for by covid. just a particularly deadly year for texas (not including covid)
    Midnight Gulp just took it from Reddit. We don't at current know if this chart was initially posted by an official en y or not to fully speak to the point of the chart.

    Here's what I would take from it if it's not just made-up BS. You have 5000 excess deaths and only 2000 are presumably added from COVID. That means that more than half, 3000 are not even the result of COVID. That's quite the anamoly.



  3. #203
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    I did and responded. But I knew you were bull ting me from the start.

    Excess death and actual death are not the same stat. That is what Midnight Gulp is arguing. That is not what you're arguing at least until your recent philo attempt.
    midnight pulp didnt say that the "excess deaths" was equal to all actual deaths deaths. thats why the word "excess" is there.

    he just clarified that even those "excess deaths" are, in fact, "actual deaths" and not projections.

    the point is that texas has about 5k more deaths than expected during this time period, but covid only seems to account for less than half of that, which is odd, since their "excess deaths" from 2017-2019 were usually right around zero

  4. #204
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Midnight Gulp just took it from Reddit. We don't at current know if this chart was initially posted by an official en y or no to really speak to the point of the chart at least in that capacity.

    Here's what I would take from it if it's not just made-up BS. You have 5000 excess deaths and only 2000 are presumably added from COVID. That means that more than half, 3000 are not even the result of COVID. That's quite the anamoly.


    BINGO

    that was literally the point the whole time

  5. #205
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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  6. #206
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    midnight pulp didnt say that the "excess deaths" was equal to all actual deaths deaths. thats why the word "excess" is there.

    he just clarified that even those "excess deaths" are, in fact, "actual deaths" and not projections.
    That's what you said, not him. And you're wrong. Excess deaths is not an actual death stat whatsoever.

  7. #207
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    That's what you said, not him. And you're wrong. Excess deaths is not an actual death stat whatsoever.
    And he takes 10 steps back.

  8. #208
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    midnight pulp didnt say that the "excess deaths" was equal to all actual deaths deaths.
    I'm pretty sure he's called it actual deaths. But I'm on a slow laptop and don't want to search that.
    So instead I'll say that he has called it deaths from all causes, which is the same as actual deaths.
    So, yes; that is how he has qualified it. Now that you've learned this, feel free to tell him he's wrong if you can summon the strength.

  9. #209
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    after post #203 we are ready to move on from this discussion. not going to engage in a further back and forth about what the graph represents

    if there are questions about the veracity of the figures that went into the graph, thats a different conversation

  10. #210
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    BINGO

    that was literally the point the whole time
    I've never once argued against that potential outlook, Lite.

    Again, what was the central issue was calling excess deaths actual deaths when they're not.

  11. #211
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    I've never once argued against that potential outlook, Lite.

    Again, what was the central issue was calling excess deaths actual deaths when they're not.
    not getting sucked back into it. post #203 confirmed we all know what the implications of the graph and the figures were. no need to rehash it.

  12. #212
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I've never once argued against that potential outlook, Lite.

    Again, what was the central issue was calling excess deaths actual deaths when they're not.
    Do you have a different def of actual? Excess deaths are actual in that they happened. The red line isnt a "projection" they are deaths that have ACTUALLY occurred this year.

  13. #213
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Do you have a different def of actual? Excess deaths are actual in that they happened. The red line isnt a "projection" they are deaths that have ACTUALLY occurred this year.
    he was of the understanding that by calling them actual deaths, you meant it was a literal tally of all actual deaths (excess or otherwise)

  14. #214
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    after post #203 we are ready to move on from this discussion. not going to engage in a further back and forth about what the graph represents

    if there are questions about the veracity of the figures that went into the graph, thats a different conversation
    The veracity of what it represents was what I had in mind from the get go. If COVID is truly adding to the death count, then it would make sense to have a graph showing how COVID is increasing actual deaths.

    Instead, it sneakily uses excess deaths. And frankly, we don't know if the expected deaths used to calculate excess deaths for 2020 is based on trends from prior years or if it is based on a COVID model. Without that understanding, how can anyone expect to really know what this graph means?

  15. #215
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    The veracity of what it represents was what I had in mind from the get go. If COVID is truly adding to the death count, then it would make sense to have a graph showing how COVID is increasing actual deaths.

    Instead, it sneakily uses excess deaths. And frankly, we don't know if the expected deaths used to calculate excess deaths for 2020 is based on trends from prior years or if it is based on a COVID model. Without that understanding, how can anyone expect to really know what this graph means?
    its not sneaky. the takeaway was clear as day. you even spelled it out right here. no need to get hung up on it.

    Midnight Gulp just took it from Reddit. We don't at current know if this chart was initially posted by an official en y or not to fully speak to the point of the chart.

    Here's what I would take from it if it's not just made-up BS. You have 5000 excess deaths and only 2000 are presumably added from COVID. That means that more than half, 3000 are not even the result of COVID. That's quite the anamoly.

  16. #216
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    Do you have a different def of actual? Excess deaths are actual in that they happened. The red line isnt a "projection" they are deaths that have ACTUALLY occurred this year.
    Excess deaths have an express definition that is not actual deaths by the CDC's standard definition.

    You keep throwing projection into it. I don't know if expected deaths is based on multi variable projections for each time period or whether it's just the result of a historical mean or something of the like. But in a sense it's a type of projection or an expected deaths number if you prefer their vernacular.

  17. #217
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    its not sneaky. the takeaway was clear as day. you even spelled it out right here. no need to get hung up on it.
    It's potentially sneaky in that that graph can exist (given outlined potential parameters) as it is without the death rate actually going up.

    In such an event, the human mind naturally believes that a great calamity is occurring when it's not.

  18. #218
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    It's potentially sneaky in that that graph can exist (given outlined potential parameters) as it is without the death rate actually going up.

    In such an event, the human mind naturally believes that a great calamity is occurring when it's not.
    not sneaky, since everybody here (even you, as of recently) knows exactly what the graph represents and implies

    Here's what I would take from it if it's not just made-up BS. You have 5000 excess deaths and only 2000 are presumably added from COVID. That means that more than half, 3000 are not even the result of COVID. That's quite the anamoly.
    no point continuing discussing it since we are now all on the same page

  19. #219
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    not sneaky, since everybody here (even you, as of recently) knows exactly what the graph represents and implies



    no point continuing discussing it since we are now all on the same page
    You're desperate to tap out rather than have to concede what you know I speak to.

    So, I'll just spell it out exactly how it's possibly sneaky.

    1. Create a model with increased expected deaths due to COVID
    2. The death rate does not raise though (actual deaths number).
    3. The excess death rate is now high (as the result of failed projections).
    4. Can't create a graph showing COVID deaths high while actual deaths have not increased and have people wondering if it's not a hoax.
    5. Okay. Compare "official" COVID deaths to phony excess death number on a chart.
    6. Person sees excess deaths raised and high COVID death numbers and doesn't suspect they're being lied to.

    That's sneaky AF, Lite.

    TheGreatYacht Tagged you a lot. Maybe you've just grazed over a lot of it. But read this one. This is the end game of this chart, IMO.

  20. #220
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    You're desperate to tap out rather than have to concede what you know I speak to.

    So, I'll just spell it out exactly how it's possibly sneaky.

    1. Create a model with increased expected deaths due to COVID
    i'ma stop you right there

    not a single figure in the graph purported to represent this

  21. #221
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    i'ma stop you right there

    not a single figure in the graph purported to represent this
    You don't know that it's not.

  22. #222
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    You don't know that it's not.
    actually, i do. the graph has exactly 3 figures.

    Texas excess deaths in 2020

    Texas covid-reported deaths in 2020

    Texas excess deaths from 2017-2019

  23. #223
    Pronouns: Your/Dad TheGreatYacht's Avatar
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    You're desperate to tap out rather than have to concede what you know I speak to.

    So, I'll just spell it out exactly how it's possibly sneaky.

    1. Create a model with increased expected deaths due to COVID
    2. The death rate does not raise though (actual deaths number).
    3. The excess death rate is now high (as the result of failed projections).
    4. Can't create a graph showing COVID deaths high while actual deaths have not increased and have people wondering if it's not a hoax.
    5. Okay. Compare "official" COVID deaths to phony excess death number on a chart.
    6. Person sees excess deaths raised and high COVID death numbers and doesn't suspect they're being lied to.

    That's sneaky AF, Lite.

    TheGreatYacht Tagged you a lot. Maybe you've just grazed over a lot of it. But read this one. This is the end game of this chart, IMO.
    Chumpettes will never accept their mistakes. They will keep finding excuses to defend their hoax virus. I'm not sure if they really like government controlling our lives or they really think they saving lives

  24. #224
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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  25. #225
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    And he takes 10 steps back.

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