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Make no mistake, if this bas could "go their way" and get away with it, this bas would go their way. And still might nonetheless if Biden will unconditionally guarantee his future.
Its funny how progressives think ting on Manchin will make him go their way. AOC ting on Manchin will only make him more popular in WV lol
Make no mistake, if this bas could "go their way" and get away with it, this bas would go their way. And still might nonetheless if Biden will unconditionally guarantee his future.
Lol every Democrat even the most conservative is a bas to you just by being a Democrat. Sad tbh.
This isn’t wrong but unless the political climate radically changes in the next 4 yrs such that it’s less partisan, I think Manchin is done in 2024, especially if it’s Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, and he’s delusional for thinking that obstructing Biden’s agenda will make another senate term winnable for him.
Imo if Trump runs again in 2024 the upside is that he’s unpopular and would definitely lose but the downside is he makes it impossible for Sherrod, Tester or Manchin to win their race in ‘24.
I think Manchin would be fine. He has such an unusual cons uency for a red state Dem as most red state Dems rely heavily on the South's large black population and WV is 92% white. His thing is he is beloved due to his time as a popular governor, he is a gun nut and proud of it (has ads with him firing rifles and such), and while he is a Dem he grandstands about how he is not a leftwing one to drive the point home with like this. Annoying but thats his schtick. I don't get why he is making a stand on infrastructure of all things (which would probably be popular even in WV) but I am not going to doubt him at this point. Really if Cal Cunningham and some others hadnt the bed we wouldnt be talking about him is the real issue.
listening to an Obama speech vs hearing how the GOP describe him as basically Huey P. Newton is always funny.
Gop gonna slaughter the dems in 22 lol
Was always a long shot we'd reform this , but gop claws and long term vision are in way too deep
He barely won in a D+9 wave year (2018) when his opponent was a carpet bagging opioid lobbyist from New Jersey
The ultimate issue is definitely that we needed a bigger senate majority so we're not relying on Manchin/Sinema but I'm not sure if there was ever a path. Chad inhand and Sara Gideon each should have won their races, but I'm not sure if the Bullocks/Greenfields/Al Grosses/etc. had a chance at all, and if inhand/Gideon both won, I don't think Ossoff/Warnock get the turnout needed in their runoff election with the Dems already having a senate majority.
I really don't get why Manchin is stonewalling on infrastructure though. Biden's infrastructure plan is basically taxing the out of rich people (disproportionately in blue states) and using it to rebuild dog middle America states like West Virginia. It's kinda a votingrepublican.jpg move on his part to be blocking infrastructure.
'22 won't be a wave election for either party, there aren't any major demographic shifts occurring right now. '10 and '14 were wave elections because of a huge rural voter shift to the right, and '18 was a wave election because of a huge suburb voter shift to the left.
The GOP probably retakes the house in '22 but it'll be solely due to redistricting in Republican controlled states.
Harry Enten thinks we have a chance to hold onto the house but I doubt it: https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/06/polit...sis/index.html I could see a return to normalcy type vote since people seem generally happen with Biden and tired of the GOP but who knows
Taxing the out of income over what number? What do you define as rich for an individual? Or are you just referring to increasing corporate tax?He barely won in a D+9 wave year (2018) when his opponent was a carpet bagging opioid lobbyist from New Jersey
The ultimate issue is definitely that we needed a bigger senate majority so we're not relying on Manchin/Sinema but I'm not sure if there was ever a path. Chad inhand and Sara Gideon each should have won their races, but I'm not sure if the Bullocks/Greenfields/Al Grosses/etc. had a chance at all, and if inhand/Gideon both won, I don't think Ossoff/Warnock get the turnout needed in their runoff election with the Dems already having a senate majority.
I really don't get why Manchin is stonewalling on infrastructure though. Biden's infrastructure plan is basically taxing the out of rich people (disproportionately in blue states) and using it to rebuild dog middle America states like West Virginia. It's kinda a votingrepublican.jpg move on his part to be blocking infrastructure.
That doesn't get re-done until 2030 though? In that case that's even worse news for the Dems even winning those districts back if they're gerrymandered every 10 years post-census
I actually think the Dems will win the generic ballot in '22 because the economy will be better by then and Biden will likely have a positive approval rating (Trump and Obama each had underwater approval ratings for their midterm bloodbaths) just not by enough.
IMO it'll take a D+5 (potentially even a D+5.5) generic ballot to keep the house because of gerrymandering unless the Dems in Illinois, NY and CA become as ruthless as the Maryland Democrats are at map drawing.
I'm talking about taxes on capital gains north of $1 million.
It's going to be redrawn this year in advance of the '22 elections. It's redrawn after every census so elections in a year ending with 2 are the ones with new districts.
That's what I meant though, the 2021-2030 ones are going to be worse for Democrats than the 2011-2020 ones because the state legislatures (which tilt Republican in all the red AND purple states, as opposed to the actual U.S. House representatives) draw the maps and thus gerrymander it up. Of course the Dems gerrymander in the blue states but Democratic state legislature minorities are pretty exclusively limited to blue states.
I'm cool with that.Just not cool with that original proposed $400K barrier crap because in today's inflated dollars that's not really a ton of money. Especially when they threatened to renege by changing it to $200K for single filers (i.e. most of us) and $400K for MFJ families.
We could see something similar to '18 where Democrats lose the house but actually gain senate seats because the map is so favorable for them. I'm pissed Tom Wolf isn't running for senate, that would basically be a guaranteed pickup for Democrats.
I know a lot of Philly collar county suburban whites who despise Wolf over the freedom infringements and general way he handled COVID in PA and want him the out next gubernatorial cycle. Some even want him in prison. So, no.
I do think the Republicans are overly optimistic about pickups in the Senate especially in blue states like CO and IL. I don't see the in bent lady in Nevada losing but I guess it's possible. I do see the Republicans keeping Wisconsin and Ohio and probably NC. If Sununu runs in NH the GOP would pick up that seat, if not they probably won't.
It won't though because the GOP had more control for 2011 redistricting than it'll have this time around. More states have independent commissions, states like WI/PA have Dem governs with veto power that they didn't have 10 years ago, and even some states with total GOP control have a Democratic supreme court majority that'll order maps to be redrawn that they didn't have in 2011 (e.g., North Carolina). The turnout patterns were also easier to predict then. It's not clear if 2020-level election turnout is here to stay or if it'll revert back; if you draw a map assuming one thing and the other happens your map could be shot to .
I think what you're also missing is that the effects of gerrymandering wear off as you get further into the decade, especially when they're as aggressively drawn as they are in states like Texas. Coalitions change, people move, etc. The Texas GOP almost lost its state leg majority last year because of a map that was drawn to favor the GOP in 2010 that ended up favoring the Dems by 2020.
Tom Wolf is incredibly popular, your anecdotal bull doesn't change that. He'd mop the floor against all the re s the GOP currently has running for that seat.
The GOP thinking it can take Bennet or Duckworth out is delusional. The GOP hasn't even found a candidate to run against CCM yet so you're right there. I don't see how the Dems could win Ohio but I think NC is winnable since the Dems have a great candidate in NC who won a statewide race there in '14 which was a horrible environment for Dems.
Sununu's popularity as governor isn't going to translate to a senate race the way a lot of people seem to think, if that's how it worked then we'd be talking about Senator Bullock and Senator Bredesen right now. Senate races are a lot more partisan since a vote for Sununu is basically a vote for McConnell. Not even sure if Sununu is going to run though, he seems to hate DC politics and regularly talks about how congress sucks.
Don't think Luntz is really center-right, so he wouldn't want to help the Democrats.
He's a for money just like everyone else, I'm sure there's a price.
pot-committed, it would seem. he picked his side.
https://www.salon.com/2021/05/28/pol...ia-ever-learn/
I don't disagree with this, but it's a two-way street. Progressives also reap the benefits of ting on the guy that stood in the way of a more progressive agenda.
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