Why DeJuan Blair Must Start

[timvp]

While pondering the potential starting lineups the Spurs can trot out to begin the 2012-13 campaign, the most difficult call is who should start up front next to Tim Duncan. While DeJuan Blair did everything but demand a trade in the offseason when voicing his displeasure about his role (or lack thereof) during last year’s playoffs, I believe that he’s the man for the job. In fact, I’m completely convinced.

Going into last season, I wanted Tiago Splitter to start next to Tim Duncan. And though Splitter did very well last year, I’ve change my mind. Statistically, pairing Duncan with Splitter hasn’t been productive. However, that’s not the reason why I changed my mind; I actually think over time Duncan and Splitter could learn to play quite well together.

I want Splitter to come off the bench because it allows the Spurs to maximize their depth. With Splitter behind Duncan, the Spurs are guaranteed to always have a quality center on the court at all times. If you move Splitter into the starting lineup, the bench suddenly becomes rather small. Additionally, Splitter’s skillset (namely his elite pick-and-roll ability) is perfect for torturing opposing bench units.

Resting Duncan during the regular season is a must and Splitter being fresh for those Duncan-less minutes is better for him and better for the team. Considering that the Brazilian isn’t exactly Cal Ripken Jr. when it comes to staying healthy and I believe he’s best used as a supersub who can anchor what could very well be the best bench in the NBA.

Boris Diaw was the starter in the playoffs last season and he’d do well as a starter during the upcoming regular season. But Blair is the better option, for various reasons.

First of all, conserving Duncan for the playoffs should be a main focus if the ultimate goal is a championship. To conserve Duncan, keeping him out of the wrestling matches in the paint is vital. Blair, more than any other bigman on the team, allows Duncan to play out on the perimeter.

Offensively, Blair is a legit threat to score at the basket. In fact, on a per-minute basis, Blair scores as often at the rim as do Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. That interior production allows Duncan to operate from the high-post and avoid undue wear and tear.

Further proof to this claim can be found by looking at free throw attempts. When on the court with Diaw or Matt Bonner, Duncan averages more free throw attempts per minute (including a staggering 42% more attempts when paired with Bonner). When on the court with Blair, Duncan goes to the line 21% less often.

On the other end of the court, while Blair can’t be confused for a quality defender, he’s a physical player. That physicality, over the course of season, will lessen the pounding on Duncan.

Speaking of Blair’s defense, there were signs that he was beginning to figure things out the end of the regular season. In the final 15 games, opponents averaged only 100.4 points per 100 possessions when Blair was on the court. That’s quite an improvement considering that up until then opponents were scoring more than 106 points per 100 possessions against him.

Subjectively, near the end of last season, Blair’s defense did look much better. He was more aggressive when defending out on the perimeter, especially when asked to switch onto smaller players. He’s never going to be a good defender (or even an average defender) but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he can eventually become a non-liability on D.

As Blair’s career has progressed, perhaps the most worrisome aspect is his declining rebounding ability. He’s gone from elite to mediocre in three short years. On the defensive glass, he’s oftentimes downright bad. There’s a chance he could regain his former rebounding prowess but even if he doesn’t, the starting lineup fits him because he’ll be surrounding by three elite-for-their-position rebounders in Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green (if Ginobili starts, he’s still fully capable of pulling down contested boards).

When Blair came into the league, his health was the largest question mark. As it turns out, he’s been the most dependable player on the Spurs over the last three seasons. Despite not having an ACL to speak of, he’s missed only one game due to injury in his career. If you put Blair in the starting lineup, you can go ahead and pencil him in for about 80 games at approximately 20 minutes a pop. That’s 1,600 minutes you don’t have to worry about.

In those 1,600 minutes, we might think we know what the Spurs will get from Blair -- but it’s easy to forget that he’s only 23 years old. Even if he doesn’t improve, the Spurs are going to get about nine points and six rebounds per game out of him. If he improves? Blair averaging 12 points and eight rebounds wouldn’t be too shocking but would definitely be helpful.

His high ceiling, especially compared to the other options, improves the argument for Blair -- in my eyes, at least. If he’s in shape (which he appears to be) and motivated (which he should be), there’s never been a question he can be statistically productive. While his true value will never match his stats, Blair putting up big numbers will help the Spurs win.

On the subject of winning, that’s one area where no one could ever fault Blair. He was a winner in high school. He was a winner in college. In the NBA, San Antonio has won 112 of the 150 games he has started. That’s a winning percentage that translates to 61.2 wins over 82 games. In the 80 games Blair hasn’t started, the Spurs have only 49 wins.

Advanced stats can’t explain why the Spurs win so much more when Blair starts. In fact, most advanced stats point to the Spurs being better when Blair is on the bench. But at the end of the day, wins are wins and you can’t take those away from him. The Spurs have been a great team in the regular season with Blair as a starter any way you slice it.

(If I had to come up with a halfway reasonable explanation for why the Spurs are so much with Blair as a starter, I’d have to use a football analogy: Blair is like that big smashmouth running back that is needed early in games to soften up the defense. When the scatback enters [or the Spurs bench, if you follow the analogy], he is able to exploit the holes and the defense finds it more difficult to adjust to his speed. The scatback will end up with the sexier stats and will receive the glory but it wouldn’t have been nearly as easy if he had to carry the entire load.)

One reason why Blair will never be as valuable as his stats suggest is his tendency to make mental blunders. He’s not a dumb player -- he actually has a really good feel for the game -- but each night you are guaranteed to scratch your head at least once as you try to figure out what Blair was thinking. If you put him in the starting lineup, you keep his minutes at the beginning of each half instead of in the guts of the game. Even if he has an especially mistake-filled game, there’s only so much damage he can do in those minutes in the first and third quarters.

With Blair in the starting lineup, Diaw slides into the Robert Horry role -- a role that suits him rather well. He plays with the bench unit and then is also used at the end of the games. Diaw still gets plenty of minutes in this scenario.

With Duncan, Blair, Splitter and Diaw in the rotation, that bumps Bonner into a role as the fifth bigman -- a role that suits him much better. The Spurs can’t rely on Bonner to produce in the playoffs or come up big in pressure situations (facts that have become painfully clear over the years), but he’s a better than average fifth bigman. For spot minutes in the regular season, Bonner is valuable depth.

One could argue that Diaw could start and Blair could come off the bench … but that just wouldn’t work. For the Splitter centric pick-and-roll offense to be effective, Splitter needs to be surrounded by four shooters. Blair would just get in the way and make the Spurs reserves much easier to defend. Splitter has to be paired with either Diaw or Bonner -- and if you have Diaw in the starting lineup, that leaves Bonner as the fourth big and Blair is the one on the fringe of the rotation.

Taking a step back, just in terms of managing assets, relegating Blair to mop-up duty would be unwise. Even if he really wants a trade and the Spurs really want to trade him, starting him and raising his trade value is the wisest avenue. It’s entirely possible to build up his trade value and then dump him at the trade deadline if he’s not in the long-term plans, but the Spurs won’t be able to get anything of value in return unless he’s playing quality minutes between now and then.

When the playoffs come around, no matter how Blair is used during the regular season, Pop will be free to rotate the bigmen however he sees fit. If that means removing Blair from the rotation again, that’s fine. Sure, Blair will be angered but with his contract expiring, it doesn’t really matter. The Spurs won’t be obligated to play him since their relationship will essentially be over if Blair doesn’t do well enough to earn postseason minutes.

In a situation where Blair doesn’t do enough to crack the playoff rotation, it’ll be a cinch for Diaw to step into the starting lineup. He did adequately well last season with hardly any preparation. After 82 more games, Diaw and the Spurs would seamlessly adjust to him in the starting five.

When considering the starting lineup as the 2012-13 season approaches, Diaw seems like the obvious choice next to Duncan. But working through how all the pieces fit together and what makes the most sense in the big picture, there’s no doubt in my mind that starting Blair is the way to go.

[Leetonidas]

Agreed. He's playing in a contract year and I think he'll want to showcase his talents to raise his stock for a trade. Diaw and Splitter would be a great bench lineup and the Spurs have played pretty damn well over the course of the regular season when Blair is next to Timmy. But if Blair isn't having someone run the pick and roll with him he's usually not doing much. I have no idea what happened to his rebounding. Hopefully that little jumper that he made in the scrimmage is a new weapon and not a fluke, it would make him a lot more valuable. And if Diaw is filling the Horry role and closing out games, I don't see the harm in starting Blair

[Redshadows]

He should be given enough playing time so Spurs could trade him for more.

Don't see what Blair and Bonner could do against Lakers and Thunder in the postseason.

[timvp]

Hopefully that little jumper that he made in the scrimmage is a new weapon and not a fluke, it would make him a lot more valuable.

Good point. I didn't even talk about the possible addition of a jumper but that'd be huge. In the offseason he said he was working on a 15-footer. If he actually has one, his ceiling is even higher.

In the scrimmage, the two jumpers he made looked better than any jumper I've ever seen him shoot ... so maybe he really does have a J now.

[lefty]

It doesnt matter who starts next to Tim

Our frontline is gonna get the Bane treatment vs the Lakers and OKC

[ElNono]

I like Blair, and I think he gives 100% most of the time, and I think he's a good kid (despite the questionable selection of GF).

But, unfortunately, for a team that wants to put the onus on defense, he would make a great 4th/5th big at most.

What you point out is correct though: this team has too many defensive liabilities in the rotation (Bonner/Blair) to be a top 5 defensive team, so until they can replace some of those, they're going to have to make lemonade.

Thanks for the writeup.

[Nathan89]

I'd start Diaw simply because I believe that the best lineup and I want to prepare the best lineup for the playoffs.

[timtonymanu]

I've thought about this too. I really want Bonner to be out of the rotation and pairing Blair with Splitter would be redundant so Diaw would be a better fit next to Splitter.

That being said, Blair's defense is still not good enough for him to be starting every night although RJ no longer being part of the team should make Blair look better starting next to 4 defensive starters (Duncan, Leonard, Green, Parker).

I guess I wouldn't mind the experiment, but Blair should expect that Diaw will ultimately replace him in the playoffs. Blair looked great at the scrimmage, but I want to see how legit that jump shot really is before granting him a spot. I'm still holding out hope that one of our training camp invites are capable of earning a spot on the team.

[Phenomanul]

kudos timvp... that entire post is the stuff of genius that makes this site great... the logic is there (and sound) hopefully those with the reigns on the team can come to a similar conclusion based on the stated logic...

I take it Powell and Curry are a wild cards in the big-man rotation question?

[spurs10]

I thank you, as well, for the thoughtful take. While there is little doubt to me that Blair would make a better 4th big than Matt, I'm not so sure he won't excel more against other teams' benches than their starting lineups inevitably. I believe this mostly due to his size, lack of defense, and that he seems to play better with Manu on the court. Yes, not being a shooter probably is not the best case scenario when Tiago is playing his pick and roll sets. I unfortunately believe Diaw is better in both the starting lineup and the bench. I feel we are much stronger with him playing the 4 than our alternatives. However, Diaw is not going to play 48 minutes.
Thanks for the writeup because it is a solution for our most glaring problem area....... the power forward minutes.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i want him off this team, dude is undersized and seems to have loss himself last season....

should trade him to the hawks

[AussieFanKurt]

i want him off this team, dude is undersized and seems to have loss himself last season....

should trade him to the hawks

Why the hawks? Who do you want?

[Em-City]

as ElNono mentioned earlier, my concern is with defense. simply put, we don't have enough defensively good big men (I would consider blair & bonner to be bad, splitter and diaw average, timmy good) for playoff basketball.

Wins in the regular season haven't been a problem for this squad, but I would like to see this team equipping themselves on the defensive end in preparation for playoffs.

This might mean playing more splitter/duncan together in the regular season - and even if they don't start together I think we need to see it more, just so that the team can adjust for the inevitable post-season upping of the ante.

[quentin_compson]

I think the only reason why I wouldn't want Tim and Splitter to start is, as timvp mentioned, our bench unit becomes much stronger and taller with Splitter playing instead of a combination of Blair, Diaw and Bonner. So that would leave either Diaw or Blair to start alongside Duncan. It seems that Blair took it quite hard when he lost his starting job and his production wasn't as consistent afterwards. Plus he's playing in a contract year so he should be even more motivated.

I can see timvp's point about Blair offensively saving a lot of of wear and tear for Tim because him operating down low means Tim can play farther away from the basket. I just fear that this is negated by the wear and tear Tim will have to endure on defense playing with a defender of DeJuan's caliber.

[baseline bum]

Man, I read the topic and thought you were nuts initially, but you make a pretty convincing case LJ.

[racm]

Not to mention that with Diaw in the second unit, you get more passing options. That should patch up for the fact that there's no real playmaker below 6'4" apart from TP.

[therealtruth]

Put simply. Pop has to start the best defensive lineup. I think defense has to be the calling card this year. In the past we just didn't have the personnel to play good defense from the tip. With Diaw it's now possible.

[Spurs Brazil]

Man, I read the topic and thought you were nuts initially, but you make a pretty convincing case LJ.

I had the same feeling. I don't like Blair but I'd rather see him getting minutes than Bonner.

As timvp wrote Tiago/Blair combo won't work well so Blair starting is really the best option. I'm only afraid Pop will play Bonner as the 1st big off the bench and Diaw or Tiago will lose minutes. Pop history with Bonner shows this is possible.

[ChuckD]

Blair's strength is his offense. He sets excellent picks, understands space and angles, is a good passer on the give and go, and has learned to take the power dribble to get himself to the rim. He's best with Manu. Manu comes off the bench. Blair should, too. I also think one of the reasons his rebounding has suffered the last two years is that he's started and is playing against starters.

[ploto]

Blair will start on opening day and up until the trade deadline, at which point he will either be traded or sent to the bench.

[dylankerouac]

Great review and argument for starting Blair. Noticing his possible defensive improvement at the end of last season was unexpected and I am happy you pointed it out. I can't wait for this season to start!

[CGD]

Sounds like your main argumnt is that he should start for the benefit of the second unit, and that essentially starting him is the lesser evil. As the playoffs showed this is not sustainable and we need to roll out our best option from the beginning of games. The better and more sustainable option is to get a better fit.

[Bruno]

I had to disagree on that.

Diaw and Duncan must start. Blair must be Diaw's backup and Splitter must be Duncan's backup.

The main reason of that is damn obvious: Blair is most of the time outmatched by starting PFs. Diaw, who is a little bigger and a way more sound defender, is a better fit to play against starters. Blair should be able to be a great fit as a energy big from the bench.

Starting Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan with Mills/Ginobili/Jakcson/Blair/Splitter on the bench is the way to go for me.

[racm]

That's a good 10-man rotation, but unless Blair shows that midrange jumper was no fluke the second unit has mediocre floor spacing.

[Cane]

Blair has to start to increase his trade value. And to give Blair another opportunity to show any improvements, kind of like the infamous Richard Jefferson.

Blair/Splitter together has problems since offensively they both want to do the same thing: get fed on the pick and roll and clean up the garbage. One of them needs a consistent jumper or opposing defenses will just pack the paint and hack-a-Shaq.

But like always the Spurs need some personnel improvements in the frontcourt. It's getting to the point where all the Spurs forwards and centers are more like bench players than solid starters for a contender