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  1. #651
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Talk about disingenuous. Embiid’s defensive impact has no effect on Simmons numbers. Got it.
    No, it really wouldn't. That's not how defensive numbers work.

  2. #652
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    What stats if you see defensive rebound% steal% they are all close. I will give you blk%. DWS is about how many wins you get for your team how is it cherry picking? It's about overall influence base on defence. You avoided some many points, like I said Ben is going to earn $30m to $40m and could not be counted as the go to guy and crunch time, why don't you defend that? His mental weakness? His non-development in the past 4 years? Who is cherry picking here? You zoomed in him as all NBA defense player DjM was also an all defensive player. I raised so many points that you just skirt around to try and win your point, I will just leave it as that.
    DWS is an aggregate stat, and Murray's extra minutes give him an edge over Simmons in the same way they do on White. If you break it down per minute (or per-48), you can see Simmons had a higher defensive impact even in that stat. Once you start getting into stats like DBPM and D-RAPTOR, it's obviously Simmons is way better on that end (and on offense, but that's not the direct issue at hand).

    I ignored the points about money because I've already talked about that multiple times in this thread. You don't win by money-balling, especially not trying to 80-20 stars. The extent to which Simmons is better than Murray is worth a ton of money. Because of the nature of maxes and the cap, there are very few players making in the upper-20s anyway. There are different tiers of max, but if you're close to the max, you get that, especially on the second contract. All this is to say that Simmons would get a max deal as a free agent right now, even if he was only $15 Million per year better than DJM. In the NFL with no max contract, that kind of evaluation would work. It almost never does in the NBA with guys with Simmons' resume. -- Of course, Simmons is actually worth his contract and Murray is not worth his on a team like the Spurs who don't have the infrastructure to use him constructively.

    DJM's All-D selection was a poor choice when they made it. Other guys on the were more deserving, and unlike Murray, they continued their defensive impact with other franchises. I'm certainly not going to agree that's the same thing as getting All-D multiple years in a row for solid playoff teams.

  3. #653
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    If he keeps lowering his value maybe we can trade Thad + Jakob + Aminu for him lol
    LOL. I'm all for getting Simmons cheap. If the Spurs actually have to give up value for him though, no thanks.

  4. #654
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    Of course, Simmons is actually worth his contract and Murray is not worth his on a team like the Spurs who don't have the infrastructure to use him constructively.

    Wow! Chinook. This is insane.

    I love to read your posts and always appreciate your input, knowledge and great writing. But I don't understand why you undervalue Murray so much. Cannot wait two more months for Murray to show his worth.

  5. #655
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    I'd do this deal if the pick is Chicago's.

    Probably ask for Paul Reed back, as Philly have 13 guaranteed contracts anyway (14 with Reed's non-guaranteed).

    Spurs would need another trade for a starting PG after this one.
    I wouldn't, personally. I like Vassell's potential, rather trade a future first and bet that that player isn't going to turn out to be as good as Vassell.

    Nah, still think the framework of the deal is Murray, Walker, Amino, and protected 1st.

    Unless 1. Embid is suddenly cool with a deal featuring future picks, and/or 2. SAC or MIN come off their insistence of not including one of their best players, Spurs really don’t have incentive to add more.

    Just sit back and wait for that uncomfortable Philly training camp.
    I think Morey wouldn't take that deal off the principle. He's getting a solid point guard, an ok rotation player with some upside, a protected first and a trade filler. I don't see him taking that and would probably rather roll the dice on Simmons reporting to camp. Simmons is under contract for 4 more years, its not like he do much more than pout at training camp.

    I'd think Murray, Walker, Young, a 2022 protected 1st and the 2025 Chicago pick would probably be enough tbh.

  6. #656
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    You're conflating teams being unwilling and/or unable to pay a king's ransom with "the league not valuing him".

    I knew you'd bring that up, but Nowitzki was the exception. Bowen almost always defended 1-3 and wasn't as versatile as Simmons for obvious reasons.
    If he was a talent like people try to say he is then other teams would be willing to give up a lot more. teams have not been willing to give up much because he is not worth much.

    I think bowen also guarded horry and other small 4s. I also cant think of any Pg that simmons has guarded. I dont even know any 2s he guarded.

  7. #657
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    We have several guys that can't consistently hit open jumpers. We don't need another one.

  8. #658
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    DWS is an aggregate stat, and Murray's extra minutes give him an edge over Simmons in the same way they do on White. If you break it down per minute (or per-48), you can see Simmons had a higher defensive impact even in that stat. Once you start getting into stats like DBPM and D-RAPTOR, it's obviously Simmons is way better on that end (and on offense, but that's not the direct issue at hand).

    I ignored the points about money because I've already talked about that multiple times in this thread. You don't win by money-balling, especially not trying to 80-20 stars. The extent to which Simmons is better than Murray is worth a ton of money. Because of the nature of maxes and the cap, there are very few players making in the upper-20s anyway. There are different tiers of max, but if you're close to the max, you get that, especially on the second contract. All this is to say that Simmons would get a max deal as a free agent right now, even if he was only $15 Million per year better than DJM. In the NFL with no max contract, that kind of evaluation would work. It almost never does in the NBA with guys with Simmons' resume. -- Of course, Simmons is actually worth his contract and Murray is not worth his on a team like the Spurs who don't have the infrastructure to use him constructively.

    DJM's All-D selection was a poor choice when they made it. Other guys on the were more deserving, and unlike Murray, they continued their defensive impact with other franchises. I'm certainly not going to agree that's the same thing as getting All-D multiple years in a row for solid playoff teams.
    Thanks for the info on DWS, now I understand it a bit better however with the 76ers having a better record it is natural to Ben to have higher DWS. With Ben Simmons weakness (mainly his mentality) to me he is not a winner and thus the most is a glorified mid lottery pick. He would not be the lead man in a team to championship as such his pay and the NBA cap would make the Spurs a mediocre team for the next few years. We would not be able convince each other and I will agree with you to leave it as agree to disagreed.
    Last edited by XDT76; 09-08-2021 at 09:06 PM.

  9. #659
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Of course, Simmons is actually worth his contract and Murray is not worth his on a team like the Spurs who don't have the infrastructure to use him constructively.

    Wow! Chinook. This is insane.

    I love to read your posts and always appreciate your input, knowledge and great writing. But I don't understand why you undervalue Murray so much. Cannot wait two more months for Murray to show his worth.
    Murray's barely a positive player in many categories. That ST and a lot of Spurs fans talk about him like he's a budding star is why I think he needs to be traded. For his part, he needs to go to a team where he's a clear complimentary player so he can be a better version of his 2017-2018 self. For the Spurs' part, Murray's like a ty boyfriend who's convinced his girl she can't do better than him. He's not a star. He's not a Simmons-level defender. He's not a better facilitator than DeRozan. He's not a better player than White. He's just none of those things. For all the talk about how much the Spurs had fallen for going from the likes of the Big Three to being ran through the mud by Kawhi and having to try to win with DeRozan and Aldridge, nothing indicates their fallen status more than the fans and organization being so jilted and desperate for hope and validation that they'd cling to such an obvious non-star, volume-shooting, ball hog just because he will occasionally talk about how much he likes being a Spur. I don't hate Murray, as a player or person. But his tenure with the Spurs is borderline toxic.

    Thanks for the kind words though.
    Last edited by Chinook; 09-08-2021 at 09:20 PM.

  10. #660
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    The Spurs are above-average at drafting, pretty elite by most accounts, so building through the draft is less of a "luck" plan and more of a developmental one (well, as much as the draft can be predicted/analyzed anyways I guess, there's always gonna be a Fultz or Darko in most drafts) for them. And again, the current roster is much closer to joining the tank race after the AS-break than it is to fighting for a play-in anyways, so barring a miraculous jump from one of our youngings, we probably won't have to depend on "getting lucky around the 7-13 seed".

    My quarrel is exactly with the mentality in your second sentence, about seeing the draft as a "passive" approach that's somehow inherently worse than an "active" approach would be. Look how most trade-hungry teams and FOs end up; the Morey Rockettes, the Ainge Celtics, the Presti Thunder... All end up imploding and over-trading their way into corners. Not saying the Spurs would be like that in this case, just saying it's disingenuous to look down on drafting as a strategy for success, especially considering SanAn's market and ability to attract FOs.

    If we were Miami, I'd go "yeah sure, get Simmons and some other stars will want to join him, the pieces will fall into place for us". But it isn't. The uncertainty of the draft is a necessary evil for small market, star-deprived teams. And as I told the other poster, it's not like Simmons alone will get the Spurs anywhere but the mediocrity we've finally escaped this off-season, so given we lack other tradeable assets beyond our picks (and it'd be superbly dumb of the FO to mortgage our own picks on an unproven core), I don't see Simmons in SanAn as a positive for anyone involved.
    For context, my original post was playing some devil's advocate.

    I don't think the Spurs are bad at drafting and developing, but I think their ability to do so versus the rest of the league is leveling off. And I'm not for giving away years of first round picks, either. I think BS' value is getting lower and lower and as this progresses, I think there could be a value in pursuing him. And at that point, with Pop still as our HC, I have some confidence that if anyone could turn him around it would be Pop.

    Am I convinced this would succeed? No. But nor am I convinced our current path is working, either. Now this year will be different and we will likely lose more games and, sure, we can see what comes of that through the draft. And to clarify further, I am not a fan of flawed stars, but I have to accept that the Big 3 was a once in a lifetime scenario that likely won't repeat. And so, here we are, a bad team in a weak market.

    Another aspect: I sort of want DJM to be traded. I love his work ethic and dedication to SA, but I see his trajectory on a collision course with what the team will need, and so I'd like to move on in a year or two. Anyway, again, I'm not drastically disagreeing with you in my opinion. I like discussing the content, the personal squabbles I'm less interested in. So, happy to pursue this conversation.

  11. #661
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Thanks for the info on DWS, now I understand it a bit better however with the 76ers having a better record it is natural to Ben to have higher DWS. With Ben Simmons weakness (mainly his mentality) to me he is not a winner and thus the most is a glorified mid lottery pick. He would not be the lead man in a team to championship as such his pay and the NBA cap would make the Spurs a mediocre team for the next few years. We would not be able convince each other and I will agree with you to leave it as agree to disagreed.
    We can agree to disagree. But on DWS, it's not literally the wins a club has divided up. It's a stat that "estimates" wins based on a certain formula. So it'd be more accurate to say that Philly had a better record because they had so many players with high win-shares rather than the other way around. I actually like the stat a good bit, but I don't like it divided up between offense and defense. It's a decent rule of thumb that a player who has a WS/48 above .1 is a good-to-great player and anything below that ends up being mediocre or worse. It's not a perfect stat, as it awards production as much as impact. But it's one of the better ways to see how healthy a roster is. For example, the 2014 Spurs had 14 players above that threshold, while last year's team had only four. Even 19/20's team had seven or six if you exclude Metu. That Murray has constantly struggled to get above .08 WS/48 has always been a red flag to me.

  12. #662
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    We can agree to disagree. But on DWS, it's not literally the wins a club has divided up. It's a stat that "estimates" wins based on a certain formula. So it'd be more accurate to say that Philly had a better record because they had so many players with high win-shares rather than the other way around. I actually like the stat a good bit, but I don't like it divided up between offense and defense. It's a decent rule of thumb that a player who has a WS/48 above .1 is a good-to-great player and anything below that ends up being mediocre or worse. It's not a perfect stat, as it awards production as much as impact. But it's one of the better ways to see how healthy a roster is. For example, the 2014 Spurs had 14 players above that threshold, while last year's team had only four. Even 19/20's team had seven or six if you exclude Metu. That Murray has constantly struggled to get above .08 WS/48 has always been a red flag to me.
    Just to be clear I am not saying Murray is our future I am only against trading for Ben Simmons.

  13. #663
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Just to be clear I am not saying Murray is our future I am only against trading for Ben Simmons.
    That's fine. But just for reference, Simmons' average WS/48 is .156. When I talk about them not being close, that's a prime example of what I mean. Simmons has flaws, but he's so much better than anyone else on the roster that it's not funny. Even in the playoffs where Ben supposedly showed how limited he was, his WS/48 was .173. The Spurs would kill for a guy to be that productive when he's supposedly scrubbing it up on the court.

  14. #664
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    If he was a talent like people try to say he is then other teams would be willing to give up a lot more. teams have not been willing to give up much because he is not worth much.

    I think bowen also guarded horry and other small 4s. I also cant think of any Pg that simmons has guarded. I dont even know any 2s he guarded.
    Uh, he did a pretty great job on Trae when me matched up.

  15. #665
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    I wouldn't, personally. I like Vassell's potential, rather trade a future first and bet that that player isn't going to turn out to be as good as Vassell.



    I think Morey wouldn't take that deal off the principle. He's getting a solid point guard, an ok rotation player with some upside, a protected first and a trade filler. I don't see him taking that and would probably rather roll the dice on Simmons reporting to camp. Simmons is under contract for 4 more years, its not like he do much more than pout at training camp.

    I'd think Murray, Walker, Young, a 2022 protected 1st and the 2025 Chicago pick would probably be enough tbh.
    A 2022 protected first isn't saying much. What would the protections be like? If it's something like 2022 - top 5, 2023 - top 3, 2024 unprotected, then you're limiting the future trade options severely because of the Stepien rule and they will need more trades to balance the roster.

    Even with Simmons on the roster this team would be on the playoff bubble at best, so I wouldn't want to give away any unprotected picks. Any middling talent on the roster - sure, bar Keldon perhaps, but unprotected picks - no, as there's a high risk in acquiring Simmons and it could all implode.

  16. #666
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    A 2022 protected first isn't saying much. What would the protections be like? If it's something like 2022 - top 5, 2023 - top 3, 2024 unprotected, then you're limiting the future trade options severely because of the Stepien rule and they will need more trades to balance the roster.

    Even with Simmons on the roster this team would be on the playoff bubble at best, so I wouldn't want to give away any unprotected picks. Any middling talent on the roster - sure, bar Keldon perhaps, but unprotected picks - no, as there's a high risk in acquiring Simmons and it could all implode.
    I was thinking top 5 protected in 2022 (which is very likely to convey), top 5 in 2023, and top 5 in top 2024.

    Having a pick potentially tied up for three seasons would affect the Spurs ability to build around Simmons via trade. On the other hand, where they somehow bad enough to finish with a top 5 pick in three straight drafts, then its probably worth being hamstrung.

    Then again, that means that Simmons would have grossly underperformed but at least the Spurs will be protected. Odds are that pick would convey next season so the Spurs would be free to trade their '24 and 26 picks.

    I agree that the Spurs probably aren't going to make the post season next year, which makes that 2022 1st all the more of a trade chip. That paired with Murray, Walker, Young, and the Chicago pick, is a pretty compe ive offer compared that's been reported.

  17. #667
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    There's too much smoke. Spurs are actually interested in trading for Simmons i figured it was just nonsense tbh...
    If anybody could get Ben right, it's CIA Pop. That being said, I hope he doesn't go to SATX

  18. #668
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    I changed the '24 1st to the Bulls 2025 1st in an updated trade scenario a few posts later. Three firsts, including a potentially high 2022 1st and a couple of far out firsts, isn't a bad haul for Philly. That said, Murray and Walker probably isn't going to help Philly win a championship, so that's a concern.

    I agree, I'd much rather give up Walker an first than Vassell.
    Possible solution: Include the Raptors, with Dragic going to the 76ers, Walker IV and Aminu going to the Raptors and Milton to the Spurs (might require another minor asset).

    Of course, they'd have to be both desperate for a resolution and buy that Dragic has enough left in the tank to temporarily maintain their status as pseudo contenders.


    If he was a talent like people try to say he is then other teams would be willing to give up a lot more. teams have not been willing to give up much because he is not worth much.

    I think bowen also guarded horry and other small 4s. I also cant think of any Pg that simmons has guarded. I dont even know any 2s he guarded.
    He's not a superstar and I've explained the context that has created the current predicament. That's not the same as what you're saying though.

    Sure, there were exceptions, but they were just that. Simmons has guarded plenty of PG's. When they had Red , he had to because of the latter's inability to cross match.

  19. #669
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    Given what happened to the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard, I can't believe that there are so many people here willing to trade for Ben Simmons when he's basically doing the same thing to the 76ers that Kawhi did to the Spurs. In my mind, the best case scenario that would happen would be:


    • Ben Simmons comes to the Spurs
    • His shooting improves steadily over the next 4 years due to Chip's coaching
    • The Spurs get better and better each year
    • By 2024-2025, the Spurs reach the WCF, Ben Simmons is 1st team all-nba, shooting 38% from 3P and 75% FT


    But you know what will happen next.. After his contract is up, Simmons will flee SA and head to one of his preferred teams, probably some team in California. And the Spurs will be left in the same position that they were in when Kawhi left, which is a middle of the pack, 8th seed type team. And don't tell me that Simmons will stay in SA when Kawhi didn't stay in Toronto even after winning a championship there.

    So given that Simmons would leave after 4 years, and may even force his way out after 3 years, it would only be worth it if the Spurs could win a championship in that time. But I don't think that [Simmons + Spurs young core - players and draft picks given up in the trade] is anywhere close to contending for a championship, given that [Embiid + Simmons + 76ers role players] couldn't get past Atlanta and Embiid is way better than anyone the Spurs could hope to draft/acquire in the next 3-4 years.

    Thought experiment: Imagine if Kawhi were originally drafted by the Pacers, and then he forced his way out in the same way, getting traded to Toronto then leaving for the Clippers. Now imagine that he is unhappy with the Clippers and wants out (pretend he's not injured), and has named 4 other teams as his preferred destinations: GS, LAL, Nets, Heat. Would you trade for him, knowing that he doesn't want to play in SA? If not, why would you trade for Simmons?

    The whole Kawhi fiasco has really turned me off to any player who tries to force their way off their team. It's one thing to request to be traded, which I can respect. But it's another to stop speaking to anyone on the team and tanking your own trade value, which both Kawhi and Simmons have done. I have no doubts that whichever team ends up with Simmons will regret it after 3-4 years when he decides it's time to get out of town and leave for greener pastures.

  20. #670
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    If anybody could get Ben right, it's CIA Pop. That being said, I hope he doesn't go to SATX
    Like he did Defrozen??

  21. #671
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    Like he did Defrozen??
    In Pop’s defense he did make him improve as a playmaker and in general efficiency, but he’s not a miracle worker.

  22. #672
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    I think we should flip this around re: BS and forcing his way out. I’m trying to think of what superstars haven’t forced their way off teams in recent memory. Or even, who we think would stick it out in SA. Giannis and Joker are the only two that come to mind. Maybe Curry. In contrast, almost every other big time player would force his way out. The league is full of jerks or players worried about their brand and money. And that’s probably just going to be the norm. Even if we draft the next superstar I don’t expect them to be a permanent Spur.

    So that’s my context for considering Simmons. Either we commit to a middle class team approach, which I’m not totally against, or we get what star we can and hope for the best. The league is a disaster in this sense. With stars destroying small markets, which is established, I think it’s a tough situation. And so considering BS, for me, is a recognition of the massively uphill challenge SA has.

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    Uh, he did a pretty great job on Trae when me matched up.
    I will admit I am only looking at stats here but he did not really do better. His stats are what they were for the season. That includes the last game he was injured.

  24. #674
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    I think Murray will be in the league longer then Simmons.

  25. #675
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    Ben "I won't shoot because you might foul me and I'm scared to death" Simmons doesn't have a lot of suitors for obvious reasons. Coming here will likely never happen, but it would be good for him. He might learn to shoot a basketball. Don't think improving is at the the top of his list. Can't Philly take his salary if he doesn't show up? Just sue him and his agent for a few hundred million.

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