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  1. #5701
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Someone tell him that its NBD.

  2. #5702
    Done with the NBA
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    The transmission is just like any other flu, tbh.
    The hospitalization rate is the problem.

  3. #5703
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Selection bias does not work both ways my dude. We don't have fewer tests than have been confirmed. We have more. Thats the only direction that number moves. Sure, in some places we have a closer idea than in others, but that doesn't change that these numbers are already very very bad.

    And even if we don't have another NYC, if we have 15 more not quite NYCs that's pretty ing bad. With each new area our ability to respond will be diminished.

  4. #5704
    faggy opinion + certainty Mark Celibate's Avatar
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    About 35,000 people die in car accidents every year in this country. Many more are maimed and crippled. That works out to about 100 dead per day, half of them under the age of 50. Globally, the yearly death toll is more than a million. An immense amount of pain, misery, destruction, and death is absolutely guaranteed every year that we allow cars to remain on the roads. We all know this. Yet almost no one ever suggests that all cars be banned. Indeed, rarely is it even argued that the speed limits be dramatically reduced. Even something like raising the driving age to 30 — a move that would save thousands of young lives — is not seriously suggested or considered.
    o.k. where was this copy and pasted from?

    This is too grammatically correct to be a ducks post

  5. #5705
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Selection bias does not work both ways my dude. We don't have fewer tests than have been confirmed. We have more. Thats the only direction that number moves. Sure, in some places we have a closer idea than in others, but that doesn't change that these numbers are already very very bad.

    And even if we don't have another NYC, if we have 15 more not quite NYCs that's pretty ing bad. With each new area our ability to respond will be diminished.
    You'll get no argument from me that there's many vulnerable regions out there. I've never stated otherwise.

  6. #5706
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    o.k. where was this copy and pasted from?

    This is too grammatically correct to be a ducks post
    that's the guns argument he's just reusing it for covid

  7. #5707
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    You guys are ok in SA bc the hospitals are good. It’s large cities in crappy areas (New Orleans maybe) that will be in a world of hurt due to their ill prepared medical infrastructures

  8. #5708
    faggy opinion + certainty Mark Celibate's Avatar
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    that's the guns argument he's just reusing it for covid
    oh so it's' just a copypasta he was reusing. I was wondering since when did ducks actually capitalize the first word in each sentence much less start using em dashes?

  9. #5709
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    When you can't bend the curve enough #raisethebar. This has already been happening in other countries apparently.

  10. #5710
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

    Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

    By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
    March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET

    A line at an emergency room in Brooklyn, N.Y., March 19.
    Photo: andrew kelly/Reuters
    If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

    Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

    The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

    Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

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    Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

    In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

    The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

    How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.

    The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

    This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

    If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

    A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

    Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-....co/Gdo9sg67Pp
    Most of the damage by COVID is not done by COVID, as they indicate towards the bottom. It certainly makes sense to gather more information to make informed decisions, and that, if anything, has been the biggest failure so far. Hopefully that's corrected shortly. Until then, playing it safe is the right thing to do.

  11. #5711
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    When you can't bend the curve enough #raisethebar. This has already been happening in other countries apparently.
    Sometimes it's all hands on deck time

  12. #5712
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Most of the damage by COVID is not done by COVID, as they indicate towards the bottom. It certainly makes sense to gather more information to make informed decisions, and that, if anything, has been the biggest failure so far. Hopefully that's corrected shortly. Until then, playing it safe is the right thing to do.
    I totally agree with the article TSA posted. I think the fatality rate is nowhere close to the stated numbers, and is probably around the flu. But as we've discussed before, we can't handle two flus, as the New York rush illustrates. That's really the issue here. I don't think Covid is that dangerous in a vacuum. But we also can't understate how nasty the flu really is. People brush it off as the sniffles. It can be a killer. So again, two flus running at the same time is a massive problem.

  13. #5713
    Believe.
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    Mardi gras in new orleans was the perfect storm for spreading the out of this virus

    austin lucky- relatively speaking- that it canceled so by sw

  14. #5714
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I totally agree with the article TSA posted. I think the fatality rate is nowhere close to the stated numbers, and is probably around the flu. But as we've discussed before, we can't handle two flus, as the New York rush illustrates. That's really the issue here. I don't think Covid is that dangerous in a vacuum. But we also can't understate how nasty the flu really is. People brush it off as the sniffles. It can be a killer. So again, two flus running at the same time is a massive problem.
    Even if we were to argue that it's less severe than the flu, we have inoculants for the flu, out bodies already fought different strains over time, it's a different situation.

    And really, the death rate is always calculated based on the number of actual cases. The reason to argue the death rate is orders of magnitude smaller is by advancing that the number of cases is order of magnitude higher, which nobody can ascertain without proper testing. The article isn't junk, but starts off an unverifiable premise.

    So, let's get the tests going. Even better if they're anti-body tests.

  15. #5715
    non-essential Chris's Avatar
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  16. #5716
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    You gonna be in a packed church this Easter, Qhris?

  17. #5717
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    CARSON CITY — Gov. Steve Sisolak has signed an emergency measure to safeguard the threatened supply of two drugs being hoarded for possible use in the treatment of COVID-19.

    The governor signed the emergency regulation Tuesday on the recommendation of the state Board of Pharmacy.

    The drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, are used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis and are being studied by the FDA for possible use in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

    In a letter to the governor, the Pharmacy Board noted that the safety and the efficacy of the drugs “have not been established” in the treatment of COVID-19 and that “an emergency exists due to the hoarding and stockpiling” of the drugs.

    The governor’s order prohibits the prescribing and dispensing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for a COVID-19 diagnosis, requires the appropriate prescription coding for their “legitimate medical purposes,” and limits prescriptions to a 30-day supply.

    “At this point in time, there is no known cure for COVID-19 and we must not withhold these drugs from those who need them,” the governor said in a statement. “The best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is to stay home for Nevada, not to stockpile these drugs.”

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/...drugs-1990149/

    ---

    Wonder when Qhrisbot is going to stop lying, tbh...

  18. #5718
    Banned
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    You gonna be in a packed church this Easter, Qhris?

  19. #5719
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Even if we were to argue that it's less severe than the flu, we have inoculants for the flu, out bodies already fought different strains over time, it's a different situation.

    And really, the death rate is always calculated based on the number of actual cases. The reason to argue the death rate is orders of magnitude smaller is by advancing that the number of cases is order of magnitude higher, which nobody can ascertain without proper testing. The article isn't junk, but starts off an unverifiable premise.

    So, let's get the tests going. Even better if they're anti-body tests.
    My intuition is that this is the case. And yes, I appreciate the fact we don't have a vaccine for it. My point is that considering the virus about as dangerous as the flu will calm people down a bit, so I hope that further testing reveals just that.

  20. #5720
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    CARSON CITY — Gov. Steve Sisolak has signed an emergency measure to safeguard the threatened supply of two drugs being hoarded for possible use in the treatment of COVID-19.

    The governor signed the emergency regulation Tuesday on the recommendation of the state Board of Pharmacy.

    The drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, are used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis and are being studied by the FDA for possible use in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

    In a letter to the governor, the Pharmacy Board noted that the safety and the efficacy of the drugs “have not been established” in the treatment of COVID-19 and that “an emergency exists due to the hoarding and stockpiling” of the drugs.

    The governor’s order prohibits the prescribing and dispensing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for a COVID-19 diagnosis, requires the appropriate prescription coding for their “legitimate medical purposes,” and limits prescriptions to a 30-day supply.

    “At this point in time, there is no known cure for COVID-19 and we must not withhold these drugs from those who need them,” the governor said in a statement. “The best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is to stay home for Nevada, not to stockpile these drugs.”

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/...drugs-1990149/

    ---

    Wonder when Qhrisbot is going to stop lying, tbh...
    That EducatingLiberals guy is a in' clown.

  21. #5721
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    My intuition is that this is the case. And yes, I appreciate the fact we don't have a vaccine for it. My point is that considering the virus about as dangerous as the flu will calm people down a bit, so I hope that further testing reveals just that.
    I would think it is too, but how big or not is it, can only be answered by testing. Projecting for 6 million cases, as they argue, or 2 million cases are completely different ballparks and needs.

  22. #5722
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Next 2-3 weeks will tell on all the amateur prognosticators -- presuming the US policy of undertesting comes to an end.

  23. #5723
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    Next 2-3 weeks will tell on all the amateur prognosticators -- presuming the US policy of undertesting comes to an end.
    Off topic, but I never got your source showing Joshua Kushner was a co-founder of Gilead?

  24. #5724
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Next 2-3 weeks will tell on all the amateur prognosticators -- presuming the US policy of undertesting comes to an end.
    CDC is also woefully behind in stats. Thankfully there's other sources reaching out to states directly and the media has been doing a good job of keeping numbers up to date.

  25. #5725
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    Crossed the 800 number on deaths now. Yikes

    Sure, go ahead and get back to business Trump..

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