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  1. #101
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    I don't know about Ohio red...

    But most importantly, I don't think these numbers will stabilize until we're done with the worst of COVID
    Ohio was won by a solid, solid margin in 2016 and has trended red demographically... I was there, remember... it's a state loaded with whites with low education (less than a bachelor's degree), white single parents etc... all the white single moms I met there absolutely loved Trump.

    Outside of Columbus (blue because of the gigantic university, and then you have some blacks in the outer city) and Cleveland area (large black population in general), it's going to be a red state for the foreseeable future. Even Cincinnati area is 50/50 because you have only a small inner city and then a few blocks worth of ghetto (I was in it once, got laid in the ghetto there once, but that's another story) but so much of outer Cincinnati is rural and again, loaded with lower-middle class whites without a college degree.

    Every time I drove up the I-71 corridor from Cincinnati to Columbus (and back), I would see no less than 6 billboard signs out in the country saying "Abortion is Murder, Repeal Roe v. Wade Now" or "Marriage is between a Man and a Woman"... Ohio is ruby red outside the biggest cities and universities.

  2. #102
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    I'd be tickled pink going in to Election Night with that count.

    All we need is one (fat) state because you're right, we ain't gonna get NM.. We never get it. That'd be:::

    278
    260

    We'd have to turn something big (PA.), OR MI. + WI.. I don't think we can get both & if we didn't get PA. we'd have to have both.
    Biden's connection to PA., is a problem.
    The GOP got NM in Bush 2004, carrying 40% of the large Hispanic vote there, but that was probably an outlier.

    I think it's a weird dynamism because in bency favors Trump but the EC definitely favors Biden at the moment, considering he blasted Bernie in the rust belt states that were key to Trump's victory in 2016 (note, Bernie blasted Hillary in these states in 2016).

    It's not impossible for Biden to win his hometown state of PA, and for MI to flip back considering Trump's comments, but, Trump could flip MN and hold WI considering the demographics in both states. I think WI is a coin toss and could easily stay with Trump considering the demographics there outside of the Madison-Milwaukee corridor, and a lot of the policies, i.e. taxes, gas taxes etc have trended conservative in that state lately. MN is tougher because the percentage of educated whites vs. non-educated is higher, but there are still a considerable amount of less educated whites outside the Twin Cities metro, and MN has been trending red for a long time so the Dems shouldn't be surprised if it turns red.

    But even then, if Trump gets WI and MN, all it would take is for a shocker on the other end... (Biden takes AZ??!?!) for Trump getting big wins up north to be a moot point.

  3. #103
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    The time he bowed gracefully to, and prayed the Salat with the Iranians, but DIDN'T bow to the Queen of England (on the same inter-continental trip away from the US) rings a bigger bell, tbh.
    Protocol is not for the President to bow to any monarch. Don't know about the other. More echo chamber mythology from your cult leaders.

    You really are brainwashed, if those are your memories.

  4. #104
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    The GOP got NM in Bush 2004, carrying 40% of the large Hispanic vote there, but that was probably an outlier.

    I think it's a weird dynamism because in bency favors Trump but the EC definitely favors Biden at the moment, considering he blasted Bernie in the rust belt states that were key to Trump's victory in 2016 (note, Bernie blasted Hillary in these states in 2016).

    It's not impossible for Biden to win his hometown state of PA, and for MI to flip back considering Trump's comments, but, Trump could flip MN and hold WI considering the demographics in both states. I think WI is a coin toss and could easily stay with Trump considering the demographics there outside of the Madison-Milwaukee corridor, and a lot of the policies, i.e. taxes, gas taxes etc have trended conservative in that state lately. MN is tougher because the percentage of educated whites vs. non-educated is higher, but there are still a considerable amount of less educated whites outside the Twin Cities metro, and MN has been trending red for a long time so the Dems shouldn't be surprised if it turns red.

    But even then, if Trump gets WI and MN, all it would take is for a shocker on the other end... (Biden takes AZ??!?!) for Trump getting big wins up north to be a moot point.
    ...that we will not let go of and attend to the manageable, the possible, the doable. We're stubborn that way & it hurts us.

    & we tried in MN., in '16, with everything we had. It did not work. Let-it-go. It's only going to drift further away.

    Get into PA., & take root.

  5. #105
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    RandomGuy



    As for now, to me this map seems like the most likely... Do you agree? (Except I'd also turn NM blue IMO)

    If the Dems lose New Mexico they’d also lose Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. All of those states are less blue than New Mexico is now.

  6. #106
    Make a trade steal
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    He was the er in charge.

    Don't play this off as if he wasn't responsible. If he didn't know what the was going on, HE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN.

    the buck stops with anyone who doesn't have the magic "R" behind their names...?
    That is just another lie that GWB didn't know the real facts about weapons of mass destruction. How can people be so stupid to believe yet another lie.

  7. #107
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    ...that we will not let go of and attend to the manageable, the possible, the doable. We're stubborn that way & it hurts us.

    & we tried in MN., in '16, with everything we had. It did not work. Let-it-go. It's only going to drift further away.

    Get into PA., & take root.
    Yep, Republicans should give up on diverse formerly red states like Virginia and New Mexico and focus their effort on the rust belt + rural New England (Maine and New Hampshire are going to be easily winnable for Trump imo, New England Dems think Joe Biden is a senile redneck).

  8. #108
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Yep, Republicans should give up on diverse formerly red states like Virginia and New Mexico and focus their effort on the rust belt + rural New England (Maine and New Hampshire are going to be easily winnable for Trump imo, New England Dems think Joe Biden is a senile redneck).
    Maine? The southern part by Portland is very liberal. The north half is very rural and conservative, and that's why ME-2 leans Republican, but I don't think he can take the whole state. Then again, if he does well enough in Maine that also means that Susan Collins likely keeps her seat for the GOP.

  9. #109
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Yep, Republicans should give up on diverse formerly red states like Virginia and New Mexico and focus their effort on the rust belt + rural New England (Maine and New Hampshire are going to be easily winnable for Trump imo, New England Dems think Joe Biden is a senile redneck).
    ...I just do not think it will hold come election day in those voting booths. They want Trump out

  10. #110
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Maine? The southern part by Portland is very liberal. The north half is very rural and conservative, and that's why ME-2 leans Republican, but I don't think he can take the whole state. Then again, if he does well enough in Maine that also means that Susan Collins likely keeps her seat for the GOP.
    The thing about Maine and New Hampshire is that the Republicans in each state really like Trump vs. states like Arizona where the Repulican base might make up over 50% of the population but they don’t like Trump.

    Trump also lost New Hampshire by only 3k votes last time around. Swing state as far as I’m concerned imo.

  11. #111
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    The thing about Maine and New Hampshire is that the Republicans in each state really like Trump vs. states like Arizona where the Repulican base might make up over 50% of the population but they don’t like Trump.

    Trump also lost New Hampshire by only 3k votes last time around. Swing state as far as I’m concerned imo.
    I'm heartened.

  12. #112
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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    TWO MONTHS after
    realDonaldTrump
    restricted China travel Biden says he supports it.

    After 2 months of bashing the restrictions as “xenophobia” & “fear-mongering.”

    That’s not leadership. That’s bad judgment

  13. #113
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    TWO MONTHS after
    realDonaldTrump
    restricted China travel Biden says he supports it.

    After 2 months of bashing the restrictions as “xenophobia” & “fear-mongering.”

    That’s not leadership. That’s bad judgment
    & of course Biden dumped it on a Friday...so, it'll be lost for awhile, until he needs it after he's chloroformed Sanders...then BIDEN will cite it. "Yes, indeed, I agreed with Trump on that point. I believe it was in early............Jeff?, (his point man). Yes, Mr. Vice President, it was April 3rd, I believe a Thursday (he knows it's a Friday) you stated that."

    "Thanks, Jeff."

    "You're welcome, Mr. Vice President."

    See, how that works. A nice, cozy corporation twixt MSM & Vice President Biden.

  14. #114
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    The thing about Maine and New Hampshire is that the Republicans in each state really like Trump vs. states like Arizona where the Repulican base might make up over 50% of the population but they don’t like Trump.

    Trump also lost New Hampshire by only 3k votes last time around. Swing state as far as I’m concerned imo.
    The other thing about Maine and NH is that they combined have less EC votes than ......Arizona. Or Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Minnesota, or PA for that matter.

    The weirdest thing of my life was that tiny NH with its puny 4 EC votes changed all of our lives permanently and insanely by pulling out a shocker in 2000.

    People say "Trump only won the election by 77k votes"... well that's still over 10 times more than what GWB won by.

  15. #115
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    The other thing about Maine and NH is that they combined have less EC votes than ......Arizona. Or Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Minnesota, or PA for that matter.

    The weirdest thing of my life was that tiny NH with its puny 4 EC votes changed all of our lives permanently and insanely by pulling out a shocker in 2000.

    People say "Trump only won the election by 77k votes"... well that's still over 10 times more than what GWB won by.
    ...Christ, MM, I don't remember that. That was '04?

  16. #116
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    ...Christ, MM, I don't remember that. That was '04?
    nah, 00 vs Gore. While everyone was all Florida Florida Florida Florida ZOMG FLORIDA?!?!?!!1!, there was tiny little NH with its 5-figure voting bloc (on each side) that actually truly decided the outcome of the election and shaped the first chunk of the 21st century in America.

    04 vs Kerry, on the other hand, GWB won by a very solid margin taking a good handful of states that he didn't win in 00. Kerry didn't do very well with Latinos.

  17. #117
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    nah, 00 vs Gore. While everyone was all Florida Florida Florida Florida ZOMG FLORIDA?!?!?!!1!, there was tiny little NH with its 5-figure voting bloc (on each side) that actually truly decided the outcome of the election and shaped the first chunk of the 21st century in America.

    04 vs Kerry, on the other hand, GWB won by a very solid margin taking a good handful of states that he didn't win in 00. Kerry didn't do very well with Latinos.
    I'll take your word for it. I just remember that Florida judge:::"I mean we could count votes until we're slap happy, but, I'm not going to allow that."

    I was never happier.

    & then Gore giving up & his people were outraged. They were going to fight to the death, gum up the works, but, Gore said "no mas." I was pleasantly shocked.

  18. #118
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    I'll take your word for it. I just remember that Florida judge:::"I mean we could count votes until we're slap happy, but, I'm not going to allow that."

    I was never happier.

    & then Gore giving up & his people were outraged. They were going to fight to the death, gum up the works, but, Gore said "no mas." I was pleasantly shocked.
    Sore Loserman. I wasn't quite 7 years old at the time, but I do remember seeing that as the headline on fox news.

  19. #119
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Sore Loserman. I wasn't quite 7 years old at the time, but I do remember seeing that as the headline on fox news.
    Gore had killers for his front people. I can't recall their names off hand, but, they were solid. They did not want to toss that towel. Begged him on the phone, but, he tossed it anyway. Musta got paid, or, an offer he couldn't refuse. It just came out of nowhere. I thought I was dreaming when he capitulated. I thought it would go on forever!

    There's a movie about that Election...[Recount] from 2008. It's pretty damn good. Has a fine cast. I got it here at the house somewhere and I may dig it up now that you've sparked an interest.

  20. #120
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    I'll take your word for it. I just remember that Florida judge:::"I mean we could count votes until we're slap happy, but, I'm not going to allow that."

    I was never happier.

    & then Gore giving up & his people were outraged. They were going to fight to the death, gum up the works, but, Gore said "no mas." I was pleasantly shocked.
    On the ground here in Florida in '00. My lasting memory is this election worker holding up the card wondering whether it's punched through or not. Supreme Court did the right thing going with original count - Lord knows what a REcount would be like today especially with the shenanigans of BROWARD COUNTY and their mess ups.

  21. #121
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    On the ground here in Florida in '00. My lasting memory is this election worker holding up the card wondering whether it's punched through or not. Supreme Court did the right thing going with original count - Lord knows what a REcount would be like today especially with the shenanigans of BROWARD COUNTY and their mess ups.
    I know. I remember CNN's John King running at a sprint for the SC steps, got the single sheet of a paper & he just crumbled. LOL! Like somebody had died.

    Can you believe that's 20 years gone? Like yesterday.

  22. #122
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    On the ground here in Florida in '00. My lasting memory is this election worker holding up the card wondering whether it's punched through or not. Supreme Court did the right thing going with original count - Lord knows what a REcount would be like today especially with the shenanigans of BROWARD COUNTY and their mess ups.
    Yep, we'd a gotten ed at Broward. Half a million votes to play with, r. We'd a never survived it. I get nervous even thinking about it now, this evening. GD!

  23. #123
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Thread how you feel about AZ going blue?

  24. #124
    Watching the collapse benefactor's Avatar
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    Thread how you feel about AZ going blue?
    He may never leave the reading room again tbh

  25. #125
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    He may never leave the reading room again tbh
    Rapey Bryant and 45 dying in the same year... 2020 was sure awesome for our old buddy Culburn.

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