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  1. #76
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Debt service of 50 Trillion could conservatively be 2.5 trillion a year. You youngsters better get ing busy. I'm going to be expecting my damn SS check to cash every month...

  2. #77
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I didn't write it. Sorry about the bibliography error. Is is not a credible source? It was mostly just an economic analysis and extension based on CBO's numbers.

    Not a spittle stained blog from the far right or left.
    Why did you cut off the last paragraph?

    The key for policy-makers, of course, is to envision a different fiscal future for America – and to act on it just as soon as the economy recovers.

    That actually is what's expected to happen. It's easier to cut back when you have a growing, active economy. Even if we don't have an active economy by then, there will be tweaks to kick it forward.

    You should know this by now.

  3. #78
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Why did you cut off the last paragraph?

    The key for policy-makers, of course, is to envision a different fiscal future for America – and to act on it just as soon as the economy recovers.

    That actually is what's expected to happen. It's easier to cut back when you have a growing, active economy. Even if we don't have an active economy by then, there will be tweaks to kick it forward.

    You should know this by now.
    I think my disdain for policy makers and their ability to do the right thing as opposed to the politically expedient has been expressed multiple times. If you think they will act before there is a crisis I cynically think you are delusional.

  4. #79
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Well, since there is no political will to increase taxes or reduce benefits I guess we will find out in 2030. You are a pretty bright guy with a math/science background as best I remember. Seems you would be able to look at it and realize that at some point the math doesn't work anymore.
    I think having a balanced budget is a noble goal. But in the real world we're trying hard to stave off deflation right now.

    I've always said I blame government for not cutting back enough when the good times roll. That's a legit concern, when we get there. We're not there yet.

    IMO, look at what currency the rich guys keep their money on. If it's the US Dollar, it's gonna be stable...

  5. #80
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I think my disdain for policy makers and their ability to do the right thing as opposed to the politically expedient has been expressed multiple times. If you think they will act before there is a crisis I cynically think you are delusional.
    I don't see it as politicians doing the right thing. I see it as their masters protecting their money. If you start seeing a massive migration away from US Dollars to something else, then sound the alarms.

  6. #81
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    I don't see it as politicians doing the right thing. I see it as their masters protecting their money. If you start seeing a massive migration away from US Dollars to something else, then sound the alarms.
    Chicken/egg

    Nothing will fundamentally change until it is a crisis.

    As for migration from the dollar, it has already started. The Euro was a big first step for inter european transactions. Now the#1 economy in the world is moving towards treaties with its trading partners for direct currency to currency transactions that don't involve the dollar. The Russians are doing the same.

  7. #82
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Chicken/egg

    Nothing will fundamentally change until it is a crisis.

    As for migration from the dollar, it has already started. The Euro was a big first step for inter european transactions. Now the#1 economy in the world is moving towards treaties with its trading partners for direct currency to currency transactions that don't involve the dollar. The Russians are doing the same.
    Except it really isn't happening. It's more of a wish/veiled threat than anything real, and glosses over the fact that no country really wants to take on currency that's not the US Dollar, simply due to stability issues. Even China is loaning to other countries in US Dollars, not Yuan.

    Demand for US Treasuries are as high as they ever been. China isn't stupid, we're the #1 consumer of the they make, it's in their best interest we have the money to pay.

  8. #83
    W4A1 143 43CK? Nbadan's Avatar
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    Demand for US Treasuries are as high as they ever been. China isn't stupid, we're the #1 consumer of the they make, it's in their best interest we have the money to pay.
    Exactly, the 'new world order' currency has been right in front of us all all along....backed by national security and collateralize by resources from every continent, including oil from Iraq and Libya, , in the world...no need for the Amero....we have the U.S. Dollar..

  9. #84
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    So you are saying no matter what the 300 million people in The US do with dilluting their currency the other 7.7 billion people will just have to suck it up because they don't and wont ever have any other option?

    Our innate superiority as the US precludes anyone else from looking out for their own best interest? Interesting at ude more commonly expressed by uneducated white rednecks. A little surprising from the liberals in here.

  10. #85
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    No, what I'm saying is that 7.7 billion people have historically seen their currencies get manipulated and diluted much, much more than the 300 million people in the US, sometimes even more than 1000x, which is why they have historically taken refuge on the US dollar. The US has never hit a 20% annual inflation rate in the past 100 years, a double digit annual inflation rate in the past 30, which is ridiculously stable compared to any other currency in the same periods.

    The Euro might be on track, but it's not even 20 years old, IIRC.

    In other words, you have no idea how good you had/have it when it comes to currency.

  11. #86
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Of course I do. That's why we should be cautious about ting on it.

  12. #87
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    I think having a balanced budget is a noble goal. But in the real world we're trying hard to keep the bubble inflated right now.
    fify

  13. #88
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Well, is it? I was asking earlier what are the reasons for such a prolonged deflation. Unfortunately, didn't get many answers. What's your theory?

  14. #89
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Of course I do. That's why we should be cautious about ting on it.
    I think the usual mistake in this kinda of analysis is trying to compare the US dollar vs itself on a historical setting. I see that all the time: "you used to be able to buy a ranch for $200"...

    But it's the wrong analysis, the actual value of the dollar on a free floating exchange market is dictated vis a vis the value of the other currencies.

    Both China and Russia, the grandiloquents of dollar replacement, have undergone hyperinflation within the past 50 years or so. China currently heavily manipulates the yuan, and Russia just posted a 15% inflation rate for January alone.

    Everybody can talk, but if you want people to flock to your currency, you gotta walk the walk.

  15. #90
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    Well, is it? I was asking earlier what are the reasons for such a prolonged deflation. Unfortunately, didn't get many answers. What's your theory?
    We threw everything at not just preventing the housing bubble from fully deflating but trying to re-inflate it and have been somewhat successful...it still wants to deflate though. I think it's inevitable that housing prices return to historical means but only time will tell. At least we are better off than most of Asia, which is where we were at in '08. Perhaps Asia will be the trigger that gets the global depression back on track.

  16. #91
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    We threw everything at not just preventing the housing bubble from fully deflating but trying to re-inflate it and have been somewhat successful...it still wants to deflate though. I think it's inevitable that housing prices return to historical means but only time will tell. At least we are better off than most of Asia, which is where we were at in '08. Perhaps Asia will be the trigger that gets the global depression back on track.


    Yeah, I personally think despite the "economic indicators" talking about recovery, as long as we need to keep pumping bills to starve off the economy from shrinking, we're not in a real path to recovery. But I don't see a whole lot of alternatives, unfortunately.

  17. #92
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    "I don't see a whole lot of alternatives"

    wages haven't moved significantly.

    Increase FEDERAL "median" minimum wage to $20/hour, over 5 years, indexed to inflation and pro-rated by a region's COL.

  18. #93
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    "I don't see a whole lot of alternatives"

    wages haven't moved significantly.

    Increase FEDERAL "median" minimum wage to $20/hour, over 5 years, indexed to inflation and pro-rated by a region's COL.
    Somehow I don't think raising burger flipping to the median income will solve all of our economic challenges. My opinion is that anyone who thinks a single sentence can provide the fix for the most complex economy to have ever existed is a complete moron.

  19. #94
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Somehow I don't think raising burger flipping to the median income will solve all of our economic challenges. My opinion is that anyone who thinks a single sentence can provide the fix for the most complex economy to have ever existed is a complete moron.
    yup.

  20. #95
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    Somehow I don't think raising burger flipping to the median income will solve all of our economic challenges. My opinion is that anyone who thinks a single sentence can provide the fix for the most complex economy to have ever existed is a complete moron.
    I didn't say "solve all".

    But it's a huge start, putting "spend-ready" (as contrasted with shovel-ready) $100Bs directly into the hands of low end spenders, which in turn will cause the people above them to expect more, pushing up wages up the payscale line. Reduces inequality, increase sales, SS/Medicare revenues, IRS revenue.

    There's lots of other stuff, but Repugs will block increasing the Fed minimum wage, and everything else that would help the 99%, ANYTHING proposed by the Dems.

    With Repugs controlling Congress and dozens of states at all levels, we are assured that America is and will be inescapably ed and un able. ing America is the VRWC/Repug strategy.

    Thanks, Repug voters! All y'all sonsof es are ing America.

    Elections have consequences, and y'all electing extremist Repugs CONSEQUENTLY keeps America ed and un able.
    Last edited by boutons_deux; 03-09-2015 at 03:42 AM.

  21. #96
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    lol "lot's of other stuff"

  22. #97
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    What's more intriguing to me is the cause of such prolonged deflation. Is it China's growth into a manufacturing superpower, a country that manipulates it's currency to stay compe ive?
    AEP has an article about this in the Torygraph

    China has abandoned a solemn pledge to keep its exchange rate stable and is carrying out a systematic devaluation of the yuan, sending a powerful deflationary impulse through a global economy already caught in a 1930s trap.


    The country’s currency basket has been sliding at an annual pace of 12pc since the start of the year. This has picked up sharply since the Brexit vote, suggesting that the People’s Bank (PBOC) may be taking advantage of the distraction to push through a sharper devaluation.;


    “This makes a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable,” said Mark Williams, chief China economist at Capital Economics. “Markets will not take PBOC policy statements at face value in the future.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...celerating-pa/

  23. #98
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Factory gate prices within China are falling at a rate of 2.9pc, further amplifying the deflationary impact. Analysts fear that Beijing is engaged is an undeclared policy of beggar-thy-neighbour mercantilism, trying to avert an industrial crisis at home by exporting its overcapacity in steel, shipbuilding, chemicals, plastics, paper, glass, and even solar panels, to the rest for the world.


    “When you have a relatively closed capital account like China, it means that any currency move like this is a policy decision,” said Hans Redeker, currency chief at Morgan Stanley.



    “They seem to be overriding their own model and letting the remnimbi (yuan) fall to improve compe iveness. They are in the same sort of deflationary syndrome as Japan in the 1990 but on a much bigger scale. The global economy is in no position to absorb this.”


    Import prices in Japan have collapsed by 20pc over the last year, 5.5pc in Germany, and 5pc in the US, despite the recovery oil prices.

  24. #99
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Yet a fragile world economy cannot cope with a falling yuan. China’s fixed asset investment has been running at $5 trillion a year, as much as in North America and Europe combined. The country is hostage to an investment-led growth model that was not reformed in time, and relies too heavily on exports.



    The steel saga of the last year offers a vivid illustration of how this model distorts the global economy. China’s share of world steel output has risen from 10pc to 50pc over the last decade. It has built up 400m tonnes of excess capacity, twice the size of the entire EU steel industry.
    China now produces half the world's steel, an example of why it matters if the yuan keeps falling Credit: World Steel Association


    The surplus has flooded Europe, encouraged by export subsidies, tax breaks, and cheap state credit. Even where the volumes admitted have been modest, the marginal effect has upset the market and led to a price slide. Episodes like this help to explain why global deflation is becoming systemic.

  25. #100
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    The good news is that eventually they'll top out. I say good news because while in the short term it will look like a heavy financial crisis, in the long run, it should make other countries more compe ive, including the US. At that point we should see real economic improvement.

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