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100,000 would die in the admitting process alone
'The Edge of Disaster'
Disaster Would Overwhelm Hospitals, Author Warns
by Steve Inskeep
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'The Edge of Disaster'
Read an Excerpt
Morning Edition, February 22, 2007 · Stephen Flynn, former Coast Guard commander and author of The Edge of Disaster, says that the United States medical system is unprepared to handle a catastrophic emergency such as a flu pandemic or a major terrorist attack.“We’re going to have incidents whether by acts of God or acts of man that are going to place a lot of people in desperate need for emergency care... And it will be life and death whether or not they receive it.”
Stephen Flynn, author of 'The Edge of Disaster'
The problem, Flynn says, is that hospitals have been trying to cut costs.
"The medical community has been moving in the direction of much of our economy," he says, "which is wringing out the extra capacity in order to essentially focus on the bottom line."
Possible Pandemic
Each year, more than 300,000 people are treated in U.S. hospitals for the flu. The common flu is dangerous; more than 30,000 Americans die from it every year. But Flynn is even more concerned by the prospect of pandemic flu, such as the outbreak that occurred in 1918.
Flynn estimates that a pandemic flu outbreak today would result in 80 million infected Americans. If the death rate were similar to that of the 1918 flu, then a current flu pandemic could result in 800,000 deaths in the United States.
There are only 970,000 hospital beds in the entire country, says Flynn, "so clearly we'd have to find a much different way to provide emergency care for people outside of our hospital settings."
Flynn says the United States lacks the federal leadership necessary to organize state and local efforts.
Advance Planning
Flynn worries that a medical system that can barely meet day-to-day demands will be caught unprepared by an onslaught of emergency cases.
"We're going to have incidents whether by acts of God or acts of man that are going to place a lot of people in desperate need for emergency care," Flynn says. "And it will be life and death whether or not they receive it."
He says that investing in a medical system that can handle a potential surge is "something that we can't afford not to do."
Flynn endorses alternative solutions that will enforce the medical system without tremendous expense. He says much more can be done to reach out to retired doctors and nurses who could serve as a rank of reserves for medical professionals.
There are also programs that give citizens basic training so that they can assist medical professionals in the event of an emergency.
To inspire such change, Flynn thinks the United States needs to realize that the medical system is moving in the wrong direction.
"The efforts to essentially try to keep costs down and to ultimately make… our medical care system as efficient as possible," he says, "stands in opposition to the need to have surge capacity when things go very wrong."
Click here to read the first chapter from the Author's Book, halfway down the page
100,000 would die in the admitting process alone
You sig is just not right...
Seeing as though the weak (elderly) are FAR more likely to die from the flu.....this is the solution to Social Security insolvency!
I realize you meant that as a joke, but as a Public Service Announcement (tm), I want to inform everybody that this is not the case with this strain of the virus.
Since this is a new mutated strain that humans never had contact with before, and therefore the immune system doesn't really know how to deal with, people from all ages carry the same risk after infection. If you or somebody you know suspects that they're infected, they should get tested as early as possible. The earliest the treatment starts, the more effective it is.
What gets me is that they are saying they can create a vaccine, but it will take several months to get out there in quan y. Well, get to work.
If the gummint wants to throw money at something they can throw money at this. A little wasted money on some unneeded vaccine is a lot better than the alternative should it be needed and nothing be available.
Antivirals work fine if the disease is found early. As far as vaccines, Roche indicated they currently have 3 million units ready, and another pharma said it could have them ready in about 13 weeks (about half the time it normally takes).
Don't need a pig flu to run short of medical care.
I read an article that said if Magik Negro's health care was implemented (don't worry, wrongies, the health industry will kill it, that death battle has already begun.), there aren't enough primary care docs to care for 50M uninsured. Many regions don't have NOW enough primary care docs.
It's my belief that most experts in every field somewhat artificially inflate chances of a disaster. Why? Well, if experts ran around saying, "It's no big deal" to anything, then there wouldn't be much of a need to give them a raise, would there?
You're starting to sound like Galileo...
Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern?You're starting to sound like Galileo...
, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.
Additional: I mean, let's face it... if this guy is wrong, and it doesn't turn out to be so bad (Y2K anyone?), no one's going to remember him for the wrong prediction.
And let's face it, a book with the le: "The Swine Epidemic: Why It Might Only Cause a Bit of Chaos" wouldn't sell nearly as well.
Hey, I can't argue with fear tactics. They are successful for a while. The longevity of the last administration is a perfect example.Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern?
, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.
Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern?
, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.Bravo!Additional: I mean, let's face it... if this guy is wrong, and it doesn't turn out to be so bad (Y2K anyone?), no one's going to remember him for the wrong prediction.
And let's face it, a book with the le: "The Swine Epidemic: Why It Might Only Cause a Bit of Chaos" wouldn't sell nearly as well.
Interestingly prescient.
Lookie what I found.
BADA BING. from 2009
I seem to remember saying this disaster was foreseeable.
Complacency sucks
It does. Humans suck at evaluating large future risks.
Climate change for example.
large population and not enough hospital beds, let alone health workers, they going to force graduation of final year med students?
america hasnt release any numbers on illegals dieing from convit, that be interesting
No Chumpettes crying that RandomCuck bumped a thread from 2009?
RG found an old thread that he created.No Chumpettes crying that RandomCuck bumped a thread from 2009?
You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.
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