I will go out on a limb: Economic prediction

[RandomGuy]

Everybody is looking to pay as little tax as possible. It would be one thing if the government spent our taxes wisely, but it spends irresponsibly and wastes so much.

No it doesn't.

Define "waste" and "irresponsible".

Then quantify that, in terms of % tax/spent.

If you can't or won't do either, you have a rather poor assumption on which to base any kind of realistic policy.

I am ready to say, yes, waste and irresponsible spending happens, but no to anywhere near the degree you would probably think it does, or could reasonably quantify.

(edit)
You want to start... look at DOD spending. The low-hanging fruit is there if you are looking for waste.

[RandomGuy]

Your wasteful government spending talking point aside, In principle I agree that people should be able to keep more of the money they earn, but the reality is a progressive tax system is better for the economy as a whole.

I realize this is wildly oversimplified, but let's say Ted Cruz is elected and implements his 15% flat tax. CC's Tax burden gets cut in half. What's he gonna do with that extra $80k? He may spend a little of it, but most of it will be saved and invested. No significant new jobs will be created.

Nah. Flat tax schemes always have healthy wage exemptions, that make them progressive.

What flat taxes would do is make a lot of wealthy people scramble for their lobbyists, as their favored tax break vanishes.

Flat tax is a great idea thatI have become convinced is probably the best way to go, but is so politically impossible as to be a fantasy. Sad.

[RandomGuy]

You really think that the government using CC's tax is gonna create more new jobs than if he re-invests his money in his own company or invests in mutual funds/etfs?

Depends on what the government spends it on.

Governments can earn some solid returns on some of their spending, such as free needles, or drug rehab programs, or even roads.

[RandomGuy]

I admit it's been nice to be able to help my kids....

but it's not like I didn't work my ass off for 40 years and take a lot of financial risks to get here.

That is good. You should be rewarded, and are it would seem. A good economic system should reward such risk-taking.

[Th'Pusher]

You really think that the government using CC's tax is gonna create more new jobs than if he re-invests his money in his own company or invests in mutual funds/etfs?

Sure. Using that $80k as a direct transfer of wealth via SS will absolutely create more jobs as its more than likely going to be spent. Investing in a mutual fund or an etf? Companies are sitting on cash and have been for a while. Our economy is based on consumption. One thing we know is that the government is going to spend the money.

[RandomGuy]

Sure. Using that $80k as a direct transfer of wealth via SS will absolutely create more jobs as its more than likely going to be spent. Investing in a mutual fund or an etf? Companies are sitting on cash and have been for a while. Our economy is based on consumption. One thing we know is that the government is going to spend the money.

This is correct.

Economically, investing in existing stocks/bonds doesn't really do much for the economy, especially ours.

Since so much of the wealth in the US is just sitting on its hands at the moment, it isn't too surprising our economy is in the doldrums.

[Th'Pusher]

Fed will raise at least 25 basic points this year if not 50.

Fed raises rate .25%

I think some people owe CC sone beer?

[RandomGuy]

Fed raises rate .25%

I think some people owe CC sone beer?

Dammit. Yes.

Color me shocked at the buzzer beater. CosmicCowboy wins. :/

[Nbadan]

Dammit. Yes.

Color me shocked at the buzzer beater. CosmicCowboy wins. :/

Yep there were quite a few posters here predicting a rise..bottom line..The US needs to raise the minimum to $10 per hour.......that will help spur economic growth

[RandomGuy]

Economic prediction for the next four years:

Trump will not deliver in the long run.

If he carries out the trade wars he promises, living standards will fall, with inflation outpacing wage growth.

He will alienate many many groups he needs to get things done, and his cabinet will be ineffective and incompetent.

Fiscal hawks in his own party will stop him from doing the infrastructure he promised.

Hard to really estimate the effects of his actual policies until he puts them into action. He lied so much that it is impossible to really predict what he will actually do or even try to do.

Best guess with low confidence:
The economy will gain pace as it has for the last few years, then maybe bump up a bit, then will suffer some sort of recession close to the end of Trumps term, IF he doesn't monkey with things too much, or get us into a war.

Trump will be a one term president, and the GOP will suffer some crushing defeats in 2020, not regaining the presidency while I live.

[boutons_deux]

Inequality will increase and continue to restrain broad economic growth, as will Repug austerity at Fed and red/slave state levels

95%+ of all economic gains will continue to the 1%

40m+ people should continue to need public assistance, but Repugs will kick a few million of them off and into abject poverty and into the streets.

BigCorp/BigFinance predation and fleecing will continue unabated.

10Ks of will suffer and/or die for want of health care.

BigOil and BigFinance will collude to bid up the price of oil, pushing fuel to record highs

(possible positive: people buy more EVs as batteries improve and recharging stations proliferate)

Fed and red/slave state incentives for renewables will be cut or zeroed, throwing 100Ks out of work.

Fed will continue raising rates, pushing unemployment higher, or at best almost no job growth, like in Repug 2001 - 2008

Mar a Lago will be inundated with rising sea levels.

[Nbadan]

If he carries out the trade wars he promises, living standards will fall, with inflation outpacing wage growth.

This goes without saying IMO....the main reason that there is no inflation (i.e. broad growth) is because wages have failed to keep up with price increases....without a real wage increase, this pattern of wage deflation will continue to drag the economy and the best growth rate we can even hope for is about 2%....

[Nbadan]

Trump will not deliver in the long run.

If Trump becomes a Bush type empty suit the GOP will push its own agenda....building a wall....Pro-globalist...pro-war....Most Republicans are disappointed that Obama didn't do more to support the Syrian rebels....I wonder if Trump "the campaigner" would have done any different?

[tlongII]

We shall see.

[Nbadan]

He will alienate many many groups he needs to get things done, and his cabinet will be ineffective and incompetent.

well, there is a lot of mucky muck there....Liberals need to stall GOP legislation with committee investigations like the Russian voting scandal...AND....filibuster health care and Social Security reform...that alone would go along way in 2018

[boutons_deux]

If Trump becomes a Bush type empty suit the GOP will push its own agenda

Trash is already an empty suit, and will offer no resistance or vetoes to the sociopathic Repug agenda.

[Thread]

If Trump becomes a Bush type empty suit the GOP will push its own agenda....building a wall....Pro-globalist...pro-war....Most Republicans are disappointed that Obama didn't do more to support the Syrian rebels....I wonder if Trump "the campaigner" would have done any different?

No. They'll fall in line behind him just like we did with the actual empty suited Bush. , we never even knew what hit us as I stood in that line. Sadly, only during this gd cycle did I realize that there was such a line and that I was in said line, smilin' like a in' fool.

This time? At least this time I will not stand in it. I'm taking CN, kickin' & screamin' out of it and we're going to the Chuckwagon, on him.

[CosmicCowboy]

Predictions for 2017

Inflation ticks up as energy costs rise. Energy and cheap imports are the only think that has held inflation down.

Import costs rise as third world middle class increases

Stock market is frothy. May top 20K but goes sideways or down from there.

Fed bumps rate at least 50 basic points in 2017

Trump won't get tax cuts he wants, especially on personal tax. May reduce corporate to 20%

[RandomGuy]

well, there is a lot of mucky muck there....Liberals need to stall GOP legislation with committee investigations like the Russian voting scandal...AND....filibuster health care and Social Security reform...that alone would go along way in 2018

Democrats will be pressured, and are being pressured to resist in any way possible.

Democratic voters will hold their people accountable just like the tea partiers did, when establishment candidates lost, if they don't work to oppose Trump.

I expect 4 years of partisanship that make the last 8 look mild.

[DMC]

My gut has been right throughout the last couple of years in a lot of things, but I am normally hesitant to make longer range predictions, but, what the :

Banks, despite the most recent profits, will continue to bleed money as commercial real estate becomes the other shoe to drop. Many larger banks will require more bailouts mid to late 2009, despite the strings, and smaller banks will continue to bite the dust at a fast clip. There is a good chance that the bailouts will be turned into equity shares, and eventually sold for a profit for the taxpayer. The financial sector will be more regulated, stabilize, and come back in about 2 years.

The Fed, to fight deflation, will continue to pursue some inflationary policies, keeping the cost of oil (held in dollars) high.

The overall US economy will shrink this year, probably at a pace faster than most economists will expect. The Economist predicts -3.2%. My gut says more around -4.5%, because I don't think enough of them are factoring in the coming retail and commercial real estate contraction.

Gold will stay high for many of the reasons that oil will, but will drop like a lead ballon in about 2 years. I will find this highly amusing.

Stocks will likely end the year lower than they are now, probably by another, say 750 points.

At some time in the next couple of years, we will have to back off goverment deficit spending.

Republicans will wander around in the wilderness, re-discover fiscal conservatism, and pick up a few seats in congress. They will continue to drive moderates out of the party, harming their long-term viability. I see the GOP marginalized over time, unless they learn to embrace moderates more than they are doing now.

If the US stimulus includes a massive chunk of investment in energy infrastructure, both in transmission and renewables, we will do better than most think over the next 10 years.

Our debt will start catching up with us though. Taxes will have to be raised, and that load will be shared by a lot of people, not just the rich.

I think that we may have actually permanently changed in a minor cultural way. We will start saving more. This will mitigate the credit crunch at some point, because those savings will be used to pay down debt, and pad banks as people deposit actual cash. Credit will get flowing again as this happens.

Our economy will start growing again, very slowly, in late 2010.

After that our economy will stagnate for pretty much the next two decades or so, with flat to minimal growth, as energy gets more expensive, and our economy adjusts.

As energy gets more expensive, manufacturing will move back to the US slowly, because it becomes cheaper to make things here than to ship them from Asia.

I think there is a good chance that there will be a breakthrough green/renewable energy technology within about 5-10 years. This might be a game-changer. Depending on how revolutionary it is, it would have a substantial positive impact on US economic growth.

The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years, and $200 in about 13.

How's this coming along?

[RandomGuy]

How's this coming along?

Mixed bag, mostly wrong due to impact of fracking and low gas prices.

Retail didn't tank until this year.

Low interest rates and low wage growth has stagnated savings rates.

Fed had a lot of inflationary policies.

GOP is continuing to drive out moderates.

Renewables have continued on their trendline of lowering costs, and it is changing a lot of games.

Fracking boom collapsed oil prices, which obviated a lot of pain, keeping energy prices lower than they would have been otherwise.

Economy will still stagnate, mostly due to technological and demographic disruption.

Stocks will continue to be a good investment, because of stock-buy backs. Over the long term, this will mean fewer shares traded by simple necessity. This will increase volatility.

[RandomGuy]

Predictions for 2017

Inflation ticks up as energy costs rise. Energy and cheap imports are the only think that has held inflation down.

Import costs rise as third world middle class increases

Stock market is frothy. May top 20K but goes sideways or down from there.

Fed bumps rate at least 50 basic points in 2017

Trump won't get tax cuts he wants, especially on personal tax. May reduce corporate to 20%

Called it. Well done.

[RandomGuy]

Near term, it would seem no, especially not with the rather lack lustere economic data recently.

Modest recovery followed by little to no growth for a long, long time.

Looks like oil's fast run up has fallen back somewhat.

Two years after initial OP, this was more accurate to what has happened.

[RandomGuy]

Yup. That one was definitely wrong.

Gold is still far above historical norms, although if it sustains the price for another few years, then I can only conclude something underlying has changed.

One potential culprit is the fact that they have gold-based ETFs that have come along in the last few years. This does represent some substantial risk for volatility, IMO.

We'll see.

Gold still hasn't tanked. Flat out wrong. Looks like some underlying shift.

I will still find any downturn in the price funny.

[Pavlov]

Gold still hasn't tanked. Flat out wrong. Looks like some underlying shift.

I will still find any downturn in the price funny.

My first instinct with gold is that it will go up after some crypto bust, but I'm sure I'm missing something.