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I see gold is down today in trading...
Fail. It's already happening, getting rid of dictators and waking up to democracy.
I see gold is down today in trading...
Ok, that turned out to be wrong.
It seems to be at a consistant $100/bbl in 2011, not 2016. Have to do a bit of digging to isolate the effects of currency valuation on that though.
Given that China is now importing more oil than the US (based on BP's statements), and that looks to be accelerating as well, I would guess the $200 bbl mark will be crossed before the decade is out.
Don't let actual data get in your way.
Watch a few of these lectures.
http://www.ted.com/speakers/hans_rosling.html
Africa's well-being has gone from stone age, to that of being where Europe was in the 1800's.
I heard that it's due to speculation mainly? Supposedly the market is made up predominantly of speculators right now.
A lot of the things you predicted are happening. Pretty good stuff.
Just hope my investment portfolio doesn't evaporate before I get my hands on it.
Less speculation than real underlying supply/demand problems from what I understand. Read up on the concept "peak oil" for more information, but ignore the hand-wavy hysteria surrounding the topic. If you like I can do a quick work up of good data and PM it to ya.I heard that it's due to speculation mainly? Supposedly the market is made up predominantly of speculators right now.
A lot of the things you predicted are happening. Pretty good stuff.
Just hope my investment portfolio doesn't evaporate before I get my hands on it.
Speculation is creeping in there though. Even the people whose jobs are watching the oil markets seem to be divided as to the ultimate extent of the market distortion.
If it is speculation, then you can expect some real price volatility, and if it collapses, it will be pretty dramatic.
Fabricated fear of inflation is much worse than current inflation. The bond market isn't worried, and those hawks know what to watch.
Consumer spending is down for first time in a year.
Consumer confidence is below where is was a year ago.
50K jobs last month (at beginning of summer) vs 200+ jobs/month earlier this year.
Stock market down for 6 straight weeks.
A double-dip looks as credible as not.
And DC is doing " all" about the economy or jobs, except the Repugs will certainly " all" of us if they force the US to default in 6 weeks.
A sharp deterioration in the jobs outlook and six straight weeks of Wall Street declines sent Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy plunging to an average of -35 during the week ending June 12 — a decline of nine percentage points from two weeks ago, and six points worse than it was in the same week a year ago. Economic confidence is now approaching a 2011 weekly low.
Read more: Consumer Confidence Falls Apart - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2011/06/14/cons...#ixzz1PGk1f3F0
The wealthy elites are all smiley, but I doubt they'll carry through on their Positive Thinking bull and actually hire people,
“Fully 87% of our CEOs anticipate higher sales,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “As a result, more than half of our CEOs plan to increase both capital spending and U.S. hiring. This continues a positive trend for our companies’ activity heading into the second half of 2011.
A similar poll of medium and small companies would probably show radically different results. Their access to capital is limited which makes their opportunities to expand constrained.”
Read more: CEOs Thrilled With Economy - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2011/06/14/ceos...#ixzz1PGn1vT7s
"their optimism about economic conditions and expectations for growth are more muted than three months ago"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...2F+Top+News%29
There may be inflation, but, like with oil and food, it will be cost-push, not demand-pull.
I'd like to see it. I've sold imaging technology to geophysicists a time or two and my reward was an involved discussion on the subject of peak oil/tectonic plate integrity. I don't recall the details, but there seems to be folks on both sides of the fence. I don't think one can deny that there's a finite supply, the question in my mind would be the scale. If and when will it's finite nature come into play?
For the slow thinkers here BD: En Ingles por favor.
Will my dollar still allow me to enjoy my Vauen Konsul Briar and my Courvoisier, Hennessey or Grand Marnier 5-7 years from now? Or will it take substantially more of those dollars?
I have priorities as you can tell.
Inflation = imbalance in supply and demand, with supply falling short of demand.There may be inflation, but, like with oil and food, it will be cost-push, not demand-pull.
Either the underlying demand for something goes up faster then the supply, or demand stays the same while supply goes down.
It gets more complicated with concepts like elasticity, and the curviness/slope of the supply/demand curves and so forth, but that is it basically.
BD is saying that underlying demand (read: US consumer demand) is not causing the run up, (demand-pull), but instead we are faced with higher underlying costs (cost-push) for energy as the global supply of energy gets tighter.
China faces a lot of demand-pull inflation, as rising wages there are significantly increasing the underlying demand for goods/services.
"Inflation = imbalance in supply and demand"
no, inflation is increase in prices, period.
In mid-2008, we had speculator-driven oil price inflation to $148/barrel, while the world economy, esp the US economy (25% of world oil consumption), was in a recession (same or less demand). There was no imbalance or mismatch in supply and demand, just pure speculation detached from supply/demand actuality, iow, inflation detached from supply and demand.
When post-peak oil hits, then we'll see a horrible mismatch in demand and supply, which is exactly what the oil producers and sellers dream about and buy politicians to deliver by killing oil conservation and oil alternatives development (and denial of carbon-driven anthropogenic global warming). They won't care about the resulting world recession reducing oil demand, because they'll sell less oil at much higher prices, every businessman's dream, at lower volumes.
The short answer: Most experts think that it will come into play sometime between 2010-2015
I'd like to see it. I've sold imaging technology to geophysicists a time or two and my reward was an involved discussion on the subject of peak oil/tectonic plate integrity. I don't recall the details, but there seems to be folks on both sides of the fence. I don't think one can deny that there's a finite supply, the question in my mind would be the scale. If and when will it's finite nature come into play?
There is still a huge amount of oil left, but what is left is a lot harder to get at and use.
That is a simple statement with some profound implications.
Another short answer:
Demand will be going up at the same time supply goes down, causing some very strong upward price increases. Oil in ten years or twenty will not be as compe ive price-wise as it is now compared to other forms of energy.
If you want to bet money long term, bet on that somehow. Wind turbine manufacturers, natural gas, solar, and people who know how to build with energy efficiency in mind. I have half a mind to get into consulting along those lines. Did a fun paper for a cost accounting class on solar power in Central Texas, and learned a lot that I have since built on.
I like to tell people we will never run out of oil and watch their reaction. You see, as the supply diminishes, oil will get so expensive that other supplies for energy will be used. We will always have some left, it will just be too expensive for anyone to want it.
Predicting future oil consumption rates and prices can be very tricky because the Chinese economy could crash and burn tomorrow and all of the sudden you have a glut of oil on the market....or conversely, there could be a terror attack on one of the main suppliers or supply line to Europe and all the sudden you have a run on oil, given that none of these scenario happens anytime soon, oil is an finite resource while growth is infinite......depending on the growth of demand the world could be demanding twice as much oil as today in just 20 years.......
I remember a few years back when gas was 1.50/gal RG posted that it would take at least a decade for gas to hit $4 per gallon...I told him it would take Bush just 2 short years or shorter....a few months later gas was $4 oer gallon and RG mysteriously disappeared for almost a year
RG - 4/24/09
Gold will stay high for many of the reasons that oil will, but will drop like a lead ballon in about 2 years. I will find this highly amusing.
The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years,
Try two....
It no doubt had to do with the pain you caused him.I remember a few years back when gas was 1.50/gal RG posted that it would take at least a decade for gas to hit $4 per gallon...I told him it would take Bush just 2 short years or shorter....a few months later gas was $4 oer gallon and RG mysteriously disappeared for almost a year
At least RG came back, eventually.....everytime Marcus is wrong with one of his predictions he disappears for a year and comes back as another avatar, just like Yoni...in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Marcus is here now under another one of his 'creative' alias..
Manny will eventually crawl his way back into the club to pass off his gf to other clubbers...
America, in desperation, will start a trade war and start penalizing(heavily) companies that use foriegn labor and tax the out of goods coming from China and India and anywhere else. This has to happen to get our jobs back.
Yes, and it was entirely because I was too embarassed to admit my prediction didn't pan out.I remember a few years back when gas was 1.50/gal RG posted that it would take at least a decade for gas to hit $4 per gallon...I told him it would take Bush just 2 short years or shorter....a few months later gas was $4 oer gallon and RG mysteriously disappeared for almost a year
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