I will go out on a limb: Economic prediction

[RandomGuy]

Yup. That one was definitely wrong.

Gold is still far above historical norms, although if it sustains the price for another few years, then I can only conclude something underlying has changed.

One potential culprit is the fact that they have gold-based ETFs that have come along in the last few years. This does represent some substantial risk for volatility, IMO.

We'll see.

Gold has remained higher than historical norms. Something underlying has changed. My best read is India/China demand has permanently added to the market.

[RandomGuy]

Well, one of my first posts on gold; 6/3/09.

Notice I said all precious metals.

700 to about 1200 per ounce. About an 8% return.

[RandomGuy]

Do you see any other inflationary pressures in the near term? How much of an impact does the Feds timing have on such things?

Do you track the other commodities much? I know that it's a volatile sector by nature.

Completely wrong about oil. BAM technology factor

[101A]

GOP still wandering.

Coming to a head now. The chickens have come home to roost.

As polarizing as he is, isn't Trump more "moderate" on many policies than standard-bearer republicans?

Of course you said "wandering". A very generous verb for the current machinations.

[boutons_deux]

As polarizing as he is, isn't Trump more "moderate"

Any progressivism or moderation by ANY President will be strictly obstructed by the strict obstructionist VRWC s in the House, if not also in the Senate.

[RandomGuy]

Here is a bit on Indian/Chinese demand for gold I was talking about earlier.

http://www.economist.com/news/financ...rnished-appeal

China's economic slump will sap some demand. If India's economy slows (unlikely, given their young population) then I would expect gold to tank hard.

[rmt]

Remember some international banks (4?) are going negative on the interest rates. Also, after the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate late last year, the stock market took a serious dive in the beginning of the year. Don't think they're going to chance another one soon. Both scenarios make gold attractive.

[CosmicCowboy]

Fed will raise at least 25 basic points this year if not 50.

[Agloco]

Completely wrong about oil. BAM technology factor

Hey bud

Moved recently. Been under a rock. My alter egos been posting for the most part.

How have you been?

[ElNono]

Interesting. China thing looks on track.

Actually, IIRC, you've been harping on the impending, any-minute-now, China collapse for a while now...

[TeyshaBlue]

Hey bud

Moved recently. Been under a rock. My alter egos been posting for the most part.

How have you been?

You're TSA?

[RandomGuy]

Actually, IIRC, you've been harping on the impending, any-minute-now, China collapse for a while now...

Yeah. It looks like that analysis was a bit too colored by pessimism.

Their problems are still there, just a lot more slow motion. It is a big country, that will take a while to get to where it is going. It is easy to get worked up, especially after the housing bubble crisis in the west.

not all problems manifest themselves over a period of months.

[Nbadan]

7. Military Conscription Begins in Summer of 05 -

i predicted Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita when they where still that butterfly flap in the Philippines....but yeah, I underestimated the Bush Administrations evil use of the National Guard in Iraq....

[2centsworth]

Fed will raise at least 25 basic points this year if not 50.

it's "basis" points.

[RandomGuy]

Fed will raise at least 25 basic points this year if not 50.

No, it won't. I will bet a gentlemanly 6-pack on that.

[RandomGuy]

Republicans will wander around in the wilderness, re-discover fiscal conservatism, and pick up a few seats in congress. They will continue to drive moderates out of the party, harming their long-term viability. I see the GOP marginalized over time, unless they learn to embrace moderates more than they are doing now.

I've been saying similar for how long? Except I don't believe driving moderates out will harm [the Republican party] I think that will save them. They at least need to drive out the liberals.

T.
R.
U.
M.
P.




'nuff said. Keep driving out the moderates.

[CosmicCowboy]

No, it won't. I will bet a gentlemanly 6-pack on that.

Freetail Ale

[hater]

$200 a barrel

[hater]

being off by 800%

[RandomGuy]

Freetail Ale

Done.

Heh, figure the odds either of us will remember at the end of the year... (although this thread is on my subscription list)

[RandomGuy]

The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years, and $200 in about 13.

$200 a barrel

being off by 800%

hater not being able to add/read. Look closely and add 9 to 13. It isn't 16, geenyus.

Smack talk, when you get your wrong, makes you look dumb.

2009 is before US fracking really became a thing, so that was definitely a game changer that I didn't foresee increasing the economically viable amount of recoverable reserves.

Good thing I'm not an oil analyst. No apologies, and it was better than your prediction.

[spurraider21]

[TeyshaBlue]

No, it won't. I will bet a gentlemanly 6-pack on that.

Yeah, I dont see 25 points either. Stella Artois, CC.

[Nbadan]

me either......if fact, I see deflation ahead......Dale's pale for me....

[boutons_deux]

FT headline:

"Gold snapped up by central banks

Net purchases rise to second highest level since end of the gold standard"

... so banks are speculating on gold to increase as the (industrial) economy decreases?