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  1. #1
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    We'll talk in this thread about what kind of trades Spurs should try to do.

    Tools to do your virtual trades :
    RealGM Trade Checker
    ESPN Trade Machine

    The CBA FAQ by Larry Coon:
    CBA FAQ
    Last edited by Bruno; 12-17-2012 at 11:23 AM.

  2. #2
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    This thread is devoted to teams that might want what we have to offer, and what they might give back.

    The basic assumption I am making is that this only considers the 2009 offseason. From the Spurs roster, they clearly have 2 kinds of assets (that they want to trade) to work with. 1) Expiring contracts in summer 2010. 2) The partially guaranteed contracts of Oberto and Bowen.

    The partially guaranteed contracts are interesting because of what is expected to happen to the NBA salary cap this year: I have seen speculation (backed up by leaked NBA memos) that suggest the lux tax limit could be as low as 69.4 million next year, http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=886483 . Those partially guaranteed contracts are one of the few ways to shed salary for the 2009/10 season (the other being trades with teams far enough under the cap (not the lux tax line) to take back salary w/o sending partial equivalent in return... Bowen and Oberto's contracts trade for $4 million and $3.8 Million. but their partial guarantees are only $2 Million and $1.9 Million. For example, in theory you could trade a $5 Million dollar contract for Bowen and then cut Bowen, reducing your team salary by $3 Million.

    Given the assets indicated, our trade target team should be teams either strongly interested in 2010 offseason capspace, or teams that need capspace in the 09/10 season... Teams that are currently projected to be over the lux tax limit in 09/10 (or need capspace):

    Boston
    Chicago (assuming the resign Gordon)
    Cleveland
    Dallas
    Denver (unless they are willing to let Keiza, Chris Andersen and Dahntay Jones go)
    Lakers (They are in a position to lose 2 important players, Odom and Ariza, and are kind of stuck making a choice...With Bynum's extension kicking in, they know they will be over tax. The question is how far is Buss willing to go...)
    Miami (surprising but true...)
    Milwaukee (must get some more space or make a choice between keeping Villaneuva or Sessions)
    New Orleans
    New York (not that they care...)
    Orlando (depending if Hedo opts out and they want to resign him...)
    Pheonix
    San Antonio (Yes, we are dancing close to the line. If we want to avoid the tax next year, we are going to have to be careful in the contracts we take back. Finley retiring rather than taking his $2.5 million player option would help a lot)
    Utah (and that's before resigning Millsap)
    Washington

    One Suggestion might be targeting UTAH for a trade. They know their current roster is not competitive (see their smashing by the Lakers), and needs rebuilding. They know that 2010 is FA land for them too, so they don't want to screw that up. They don't want to lose Millsap. They aren't rich either - they have no history of paying the tax. So how about Okur for Bowen, Oberto and Bonner. Okur is a downgrade to Bonner, but it saves them (9 -2 (buyout) - 1.9 (buyout) - 3.3) 1.8 million in capspace (without making an empty spot in their roster), and doesn't screw up their 2010. SA actually reduces their cap figure as well (4+3.8+3.3 - 9), and upgrades their big men, without screwing up SA's 2010 plans.

  3. #3
    D.I.R.T.Y. till we die manufor3's Avatar
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    Show me the money!


  4. #4
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    It would have been a damn good and realistic trade if Spurs' colors were purple and gold.

  5. #5
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    pad300 I definitely agree that Bruce's Oberto's partially guaranteed contracts are great assets. I think Spurs should be able to get something good for them.

    Saying that, the Okur trade you propose isn't realistic at all. There is no way Utah will trade Okur for Bonner just to lower their payroll of $1.8M.

  6. #6
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    pad300 I definitely agree that Bruce's Oberto's partially guaranteed contracts are great assets. I think Spurs should be able to get something good for them.

    Saying that, the Okur trade you propose isn't realistic at all. There is no way Utah will trade Okur for Bonner just to lower their payroll of $1.8M.
    I'm not sure it's unrealistic. That 1.8 million may just be enough to get them under lux limit with a resigned Millsap (assuming Millsap for just over the MLE, a 69.4 million lux tax limit, and dropping Harpring's non-guaranteed last year). In 09/10, I suspect the payout for the lux tax disbursement is looking at around 5 million... as a result, that's really a 7 million saving (okay 6.8, 1.8 in tax and 5 million gain from the disbursement). That's not chump change. Also, the big thing about it from the Jazz POV is that it has no long term negatives attached - No giving up picks, no giving up prospects, no taking back bad contracts. The only thing they do is give up a talented player who was a UFA next season anyways... Which barring a miracle, they weren't a contender anyhow. They also get a replacement for the player they are giving up who can fill the same role Okur does...

  7. #7
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Bring Bowen back after they cut him, try to lure Sheed (or Dice, if not then Gooden) with the MLE.
    Last edited by tp2021; 05-01-2009 at 03:50 AM.
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  8. #8
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Or you could try this.

    Last edited by tp2021; 05-01-2009 at 03:49 AM.

  9. #9
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    I'm not sure it's unrealistic. That 1.8 million may just be enough to get them under lux limit with a resigned Millsap (assuming Millsap for just over the MLE, a 69.4 million lux tax limit, and dropping Harpring's non-guaranteed last year). In 09/10, I suspect the payout for the lux tax disbursement is looking at around 5 million... as a result, that's really a 7 million saving (okay 6.8, 1.8 in tax and 5 million gain from the disbursement). That's not chump change. Also, the big thing about it from the Jazz POV is that it has no long term negatives attached - No giving up picks, no giving up prospects, no taking back bad contracts. The only thing they do is give up a talented player who was a UFA next season anyways... Which barring a miracle, they weren't a contender anyhow. They also get a replacement for the player they are giving up who can fill the same role Okur does...
    1) Harpring contract is fully guaranteed for next year. http://www.shamsports.com/content/pa...notes/jazz.htm

    2) $5M in luxury tax redistribution seems is a lot. I haven't estimate the luxury tax paid but I doubt the redistribution will be above $3M.

    3) I find that you badly underrate the level difference between Okur and Bonner. Okur is a damn good player.

  10. #10
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    1) Harpring contract is fully guaranteed for next year. http://www.shamsports.com/content/pa...notes/jazz.htm

    2) $5M in luxury tax redistribution seems is a lot. I haven't estimate the luxury tax paid but I doubt the redistribution will be above $3M.

    3) I find that you badly underrate the level difference between Okur and Bonner. Okur is a damn good player.
    1) Nice, I'd never noticed those little notes pages before. That does mean the Jazz are F'ed. They simply can't afford to resign Millsap. I thought Harping would give them enough space to work in. Too bad for them. Too bad for us too, if the deal won't let them retain Millsap, they won't go through with it.

    2) You think that $5M is high? I came up with 13 teams in cap trouble unless they do something radical. A lot of them are in BIG cap trouble if the lux tax line drops... The Lakers are going to pay like $20 million themselves (assuming they only keep one of Ariza /Odom)...Washington adding this years 1st round pick is looking at a $10 million payout. Utah adds their own 1st round pick and 1 vet min guy to bring them to 12 bodies on the roster (and not resigning Millsap obviously) are paying $5 Million. Pheonix adds 2 vet min guys to bring their roster to 12 and they are paying $10 million too....Cleveland and Denver are also currently staring paying $ 5 Milllion each in the face, assuming they fill out the roster with Vet Min contracts... Hell, if we use the MLE, we'll be paying $5 million.

    Next year is gonna be an ugly, ugly cap year. Who knows, the NBA might just be being a bit optimistic about revenue...

    3) Damn straight Okur's a lot better than Bonner. That's why we want him, and he costs 3 times as much. However, they do fulfill much the same role on the floor.

  11. #11
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    ^ Well, you are maybe right on the $5M but it seems a little high.
    I'm going to look more closely at the 30 teams. Having an estimation of the total luxury tax paid is something interesting because it will determined the interest for Spurs to stay just under the tax.

  12. #12
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    Further continuing my ruminations about trades (and also the possibilities of the Spurs spending Money this summer). The salary cap is going to be a big deal next year. I suspect that the spurs will avoid any deal that adds net salary. If Finley retires that gives them a bit more room to work in, but that's all. THis is what they are committed to, just getting to a 12 man roster and standing PAT:

    Player 2009/2010
    Tim Duncan $22,183,220
    Tony Parker $12,600,000
    Manu Ginobili $10,728,130
    Kurt Thomas $3,800,000
    Roger Mason $3,780,000
    Matt Bonner $3,256,500
    George Hill $1,081,680
    Ian Mahinmi $899,700
    Michael Finley $2,500,000
    Bruce Bowen $4,000,000
    Fabricio Oberto $3,800,000
    Vet Min Guy $825,497

    Total: $69,454,727

    Which is to say, the Lux Tax Limit. Assuming Finley retires, Bowen and Oberto are bought out and all 3 replaced for the vet min, the total remaining space is $65,531,218, leaving less than the MLE to work with, assuming a lux tax limit of $ 69.4 Million, and only 12 on the roster...

  13. #13
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    With a $71M luxury tax threshold, I have :

    Atlanta: $0
    Boston: $10M
    Charlotte: $0
    Chicago: $5M
    Cleveland: $5M
    Dallas: $10M
    Denver: $10M
    Detroit: $0
    Houston: $5M
    Indiana: $0
    Clippers: $0
    Lakers: $20M
    Memphis: $0
    Miami: $0
    Milwaukee: $0
    Minny: $0
    New Jersey: $0
    New Orleans: $10M
    New York : $10M
    Oklahoma City: $0
    Orlando: $0
    Philly: $0
    Phoenix: $10M
    Portland: $0
    Sacramento: $0
    San Antonio: $0
    Toronto: $0
    Utah: $5M
    Washington: $5M

    So $105M paid in luxury tax, that is to say $3.5M in redistribution for the team below the threshold.

    That's a quite high level. It's higher than what I though. This high level could push Spurs to stay below the tax.

  14. #14
    Veteran Mel_13's Avatar
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    Further continuing my ruminations about trades (and also the possibilities of the Spurs spending Money this summer). The salary cap is going to be a big deal next year. I suspect that the spurs will avoid any deal that adds net salary. If Finley retires that gives them a bit more room to work in, but that's all. THis is what they are committed to, just getting to a 12 man roster and standing PAT:

    Player 2009/2010
    Tim Duncan $22,183,220
    Tony Parker $12,600,000
    Manu Ginobili $10,728,130
    Kurt Thomas $3,800,000
    Roger Mason $3,780,000
    Matt Bonner $3,256,500
    George Hill $1,081,680
    Ian Mahinmi $899,700
    Michael Finley $2,500,000
    Bruce Bowen $4,000,000
    Fabricio Oberto $3,800,000
    Vet Min Guy $825,497

    Total: $69,454,727

    Which is to say, the Lux Tax Limit. Assuming Finley retires, Bowen and Oberto are bought out and all 3 replaced for the vet min, the total remaining space is $65,531,218, leaving less than the MLE to work with, assuming a lux tax limit of $ 69.4 Million, and only 12 on the roster...
    Thank you, I've been trying to get this point across in several different threads. The numbers above are even more sobering when you consider that the Big 3 account for 45.5M of the 69.4M. That leaves 23.9M for the rest of roster.

    These scenarios that suggest adding a VC or an RJ are just not possible. Even if you magically make all the other contracts disappear, you're left with about 10M for nine players after you add a VC/RJ sized contract to the Big 3. If you use the MLE, you have 5M for eight players.

    I just don't see how a player like VC or RJ can come in unless Manu goes out.

  15. #15
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    With a $71M luxury tax threshold, I have :

    Atlanta: $0
    Boston: $10M
    Charlotte: $0
    Chicago: $5M
    Cleveland: $5M
    Dallas: $10M
    Denver: $10M
    Detroit: $0
    Houston: $5M
    Indiana: $0
    Clippers: $0
    Lakers: $20M
    Memphis: $0
    Miami: $0
    Milwaukee: $0
    Minny: $0
    New Jersey: $0
    New Orleans: $10M
    New York : $10M
    Oklahoma City: $0
    Orlando: $0
    Philly: $0
    Phoenix: $10M
    Portland: $0
    Sacramento: $0
    San Antonio: $0
    Toronto: $0
    Utah: $5M
    Washington: $5M

    So $105M paid in luxury tax, that is to say $3.5M in redistribution for the team below the threshold.

    That's a quite high level. It's higher than what I though. This high level could push Spurs to stay below the tax.
    Well most of the assumptions that people are making include the thought that the Spurs are going to have to open up their wallets.

    Look at the Lakers with 20M in tax. They still have to sign LO, Ariza and Shannon Brown. This is the time to poach talent if you are willing to spend. If you can do a salaries matched trade with 3 for 1, then that leaves you with almost the full MLE to spend and stay below the tax. Assuming you spend the last 2 roster spots on league minimum contracts.

  16. #16
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    Look at the Lakers with 20M in tax. They still have to sign LO, Ariza and Shannon Brown.
    The $20M figure is an estimation I made if they re-sign both Odom and Ariza. The numbers, I've given, are a rough estimation after the summer moves made by teams (re-signing players, MLE spend on new players..).

  17. #17
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    The $20M figure is an estimation I made if they re-sign both Odom and Ariza. The numbers, I've given, are a rough estimation after the summer moves made by teams (re-signing players, MLE spend on new players..).
    Yeah, well, your also working with a $71 Million limit. $69.4 would add roughly 20 million to the dispersion pool, (12 team times 1.6Million) and probably push 2 or 3 more teams over the limit so they don't collect. That make the pool 125 million over 15 teams (assuming 3 pushed over the edge for easy Math). 125/15 ~ 8.33 million... Yeah the lux tax threshold is gonna be really important.

  18. #18
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Gotdamn cheap-ass buttfucking Spurs!!!

    [\outburst]

  19. #19
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    The Spurs need an upgrade at C and SF. The draft won't supply an upgrade most likely, and no way the SPurs can upgrade 2 positions in just free agency. There has to be some sort of trade with Bruce and Fab as the main pieces.

  20. #20
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    The Spurs need an upgrade at C and SF. The draft won't supply an upgrade most likely, and no way the SPurs can upgrade 2 positions in just free agency. There has to be some sort of trade with Bruce and Fab as the main pieces.
    Pretty much true; but I don't think that the draft will offer a upgrade to either position; not at #37... I am also suspicious that the Spurs will be very reluctant to spend FA money in an offseason with a declining Lux tax.

    So it might be 2 seperate trades, one with Bruce and one with Fab, for lower level talent. This would mean the bottom end of the 2010 FA pool, which would leave the Spurs in a position to further upgrade in 2010...

    The other thing to note is that a good PF might be as useful as a center. We have 2 players who can play C effectively on the roster (TD and KT)...

  21. #21
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Damn. I thought the Spurs were willing to sacrifice the 2010 plan in order to win now, while Tim and Manu can still eat solid food.

  22. #22
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Here's some other possible trades.

    This one works with or without Johnson, whichever the Bulls prefer.



    And of course Camby.

    Last edited by tp2021; 05-01-2009 at 03:48 AM.

  23. #23
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    Damn. I thought the Spurs were willing to sacrifice the 2010 plan in order to win now, while Tim and Manu can still eat solid food.
    I think they would be willing to sacrifice the 2010 plan for a reload in 2009 yes. But that implies bringing in a strong player at either C, PF or SF, who can pair with Tony until 2012 (End of Duncan's contract). It might be doable if some team gets really desperate for cap relief. Eg. The Wizards trade Butler for Bonner, Bowen and Oberto and a 2010 first. The Spurs would take this, and resign Gino in 2010 (hopefully for cheap), and fill out the rest of the squad with cheap vet min / rookie contracts...If they can get Gino to resign cheap in 2010, the cap space might work. But abandoning the 2010 plan will only happen for a 2009 reload that will allow them to put another star on the Spurs to take over for Manu and Tim's decline from superstar status while the team becomes Tony's.

  24. #24
    fuk yo team clown tp2021's Avatar
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    Not sure why the Pacers do it. They are already under the tax line. But it works.
    Last edited by tp2021; 05-01-2009 at 03:47 AM.

  25. #25
    Veteran Mel_13's Avatar
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    I think they would be willing to sacrifice the 2010 plan for a reload in 2009 yes. But that implies bringing in a strong player at either C, PF or SF, who can pair with Tony until 2012 (End of Duncan's contract). It might be doable if some team gets really desperate for cap relief. Eg. The Wizards trade Butler for Bonner, Bowen and Oberto and a 2010 first. The Spurs would take this, and resign Gino in 2010 (hopefully for cheap), and fill out the rest of the squad with cheap vet min / rookie contracts...If they can get Gino to resign cheap in 2010, the cap space might work. But abandoning the 2010 plan will only happen for a 2009 reload that will allow them to put another star on the Spurs to take over for Manu and Tim's decline from superstar status while the team becomes Tony's.

    Absolutely, their willingness to discuss trades for Camby and Carter are evidence that the Spurs would be ready to make a move for an impact player. I think a 10M salary like Butler's is about the upper limit that could be added to the Big 3, pay for the rest of the roster, and stay under the tax.

    Btw, the Spurs can't trade their 2010 first rounder because they traded their 2009 pick.

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