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WOW
You guys are haters. I was 13/14 when I joined ST and now I'm 20. Geez Louise.
Mousavi is smart. The strikes he's called for, alongside the continuing telecommunications blackout have the potential to cripple Iran. If Mousavi has enough supporters who can strike at the oil fields... that's pretty much as bad as it can get in an oil profit dependent country like Iran.
WOW
You guys are haters. I was 13/14 when I joined ST and now I'm 20. Geez Louise.
That video of the crowd pushing the police back is very moving. You can tell they're scared at first, so they back off. Then you can see them gradually getting courage and inching forward. Then it just takes off and it's off to the races. I couldn't help but smile at the end there.
hooman majd? he was on the bill murray show
I mean bill maher
I'm actually sad that DarrinS pulled a 180. This thread sucks without someone to debate. Somebody should start with me just so I have a reason to not write this research paper.
Your mother is a .
That's Club smack. You have to slam my political views on the current situation.
I'm supporting this uprising, yet I know that even it succeeds the US will not have friendly diplomatic relations with Iran. Our alliance with Israel pretty much makes that an impossibility. Dichotomy anyone?
If she was Iranian, your mother would still be a .
I agree with you by the way.
god damn it.
Your mother wears Jihad boots, jman.
Back on topic.... not sure if it's been stated here in the thread, but two cities in Iran reported over 100% voter turnout.
My heart grieves for this oppressed people.
50 cities, at least two provinces. Posted here.
The more I think about it, the more I believe everyone is basically screwed. Say a recount takes place. I say there is a pretty good shot that the election results stay the same. After all that has happened, that won't just settle with the people revolting. Both the government and the dissenters are in trouble no matter what happens.
The best result for the oppressed is that they gain power in government on multiple levels. The best result for the government is that they quell the uprising without looking like monsters to the whole world and they keep the status-quo.
These are mutually exclusive outcomes, and any compromise between the two satisfies neither party. Because of this situation, I say it is in the best interest of both sides to go "all-in". Assuming this, we have the following scenarios.
Unlikely: compromises, recounts, acceptance of results
Advantageous to government: crackdown, opposition runs out of steam
Advantageous to protesters: revolt, government surrenders leadership spots
What the protesters want is this to happen: recounts show entire thing was fraudulent and new leadership is instilled
Problem: they don't live in a government that would let that occur
I would love to think that we are witnessing a peaceful rise in the power of the people before our eyes, but unless someone has counter-points, the only realistic results are:
1. Violent crackdown by government
2. Violent revolt by people
3. People run out of steam, remain under oppressive/corrupt government
None of which will probably have a happy ending.
AFP: Revolutionary Guard threatens to crush protests.
TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned on Monday it would crush further demonstrations over the disputed presidential election after the opposition defiantly vowed to press on with its protests.
The Guards -- an elite force set up to protect the Islamic republic in the wake of the 1979 revolution -- warned of a "decisive and revolutionary" riposte to any further unrest. The warning came after state radio said at least 457 people had been detained in street clashes in Tehran on Saturday that left 10 people dead, bringing the overall toll from a week of violence to at least 17.But the Guards -- echoing a warning by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday -- said it strongly condemned the "illegal path" taken by "deceived elements" amd demanded an end to "rioting and vandalism," in a statement quoted by the Mehr news agency.
"If not, they should expect a decisive and revolutionary confrontation from the children of the Iranian nation in the Guards, the Basij militia and other police and security forces to end the mutiny and riots."
Salon:
There also appears to be an increasing rift between Iran's most powerful clerics over the outcome of the election. According to Huffington Post's Nico Pitney, the news site Peiknet has reported that "Ayatollah Rafsanjani has a letter signed by 40 members of the powerful 86-member Assembly of Experts calling for the annulment of the recent presidential election results."
The news from today's rally so far is horrible. There are reports of huge violence but no video or pictures yet.
Jesus, if the reports on CNN right now are accurate then then the protest was smashed harshly as today.
Paging Ambassador Seagal and Ambassador Van Damme.
I'm still not sure what these violent "protesters" really expect to achieve with these riots. Its an ineffective strategy that only results in people getting hurt. If you really want to hurt the police and the guys in charge, then calm down, ambush, and kill them, take their weapons and kill more. Losses will be high still, but at least you are achieving a goal. Riots just hurt innocents, hurt guilty, and hurt police without achieving a damn thing.
The protestors are (mostly) being peaceful. They're getting attacked.
Then don't protest... I mean, when you are putting yourself in a position to fail repeatedly, while getting yourself and innocent people hurt, surely that means you should rethink your strategy. And if its bad enough that they are hunting and attacking you, don't you think a more effective strategy of countering that is in order? Throwing rocks just doesn't cut it against armed and armored opponents.
I'm sure one could have said the same thing about Gandhi's tactics once.
The spectacle of unarmed, peaceful protesters getting beaten or killed by agents of the state has led to social change repeatedly in recent history. The mechanism is that the flagrant demonstration of injustice by the existing regime against its own people drives other power brokers who already were skeptical of the regime's legitimacy over the edge to exact revolution or at least substantial reform.
In the case of Iran, a significant minority of the clerics who lead the country doubt the legitimacy of Ali Khameini's leadership. Rather than being a spiritual leader who sits above the fray, he has revealed himself as a partisan who will knock as many skulls together as necessary to stay in power. He may no longer have enough sway to keep the other clerics from deposing him, especially if they have friends in the army or (even better) the Revolutionary Guard.
Supposedly in the Iranian system the Supreme Leader is supposed to be the religious scholar who is wisest in the ways of Islam. Khameini's credentials always were suspect; his power was derived from his influence among the military leadership. This influence is alleged to have eroded significantly. Furthermore, many clerics have come to doubt whether except in exceptional cases a single man can be wise or incorruptible enough to be entrusted with that much power; many favor spreading power more widely among Guardian Council members.
This uprising is another chapter in what has been so far a twelve-year struggle for reform in the Islamic Republic. Khameini has been immovable as he has thwarted every attempt at reform, but he may be running out of chess pieces. We shall see.
However, your take on the situation probably ought to be etched in stone as the rallying cry of 21st-century American youth. It serves as a poignant juxtaposition to what is evident on the streets of Tehran. But don't etch it in granite or marble or any stone like that. Maybe sandstone.
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