General 2010 Free Agency Discussion

[Bruno]

2010 Free Agents List

[pad300]

This is going to be a huge issue

Signed :
Bigs: Duncan, McDyess, Blair
Wings: Hairston, Jefferson
PG's: TP, Hill

7 Signed, need to add 6 more minimum.

Bird Rights : Bonner, Mason, Manu
Limited Bird Rights : Mahinmi (not this is not "early bird" rights, but limited actual bird rights because we did not pick up his option).
Draft Picks: 1 First Round, 1 Second Round
Draft Rights: Splitter, Sanikidze, Gist, De Colo, Javtokas, Kaurolov (in order of my estimate of the likely-hood of their coming to the NBA next year... Probability starts at roughly 70%, and decreases sharply after Sanikidze [Gist <= 5%...])

Assuming a resigned Manu (70% chance, IMO), and a 1st round pick who gets into the squad (60% chance, again IMO). That leaves a minimum of 4 bodies to get through FA. We will have the MLE, the LLE, and the vet min... It should further be noted that it appears quite likely that most of the MLE will be spent on bringing splitter over.

There will be quite a bit of capspace out there (driving prices up), but the threat of a new CBA (and possible lockout) will drive prices down, as will that there are a quite a lot of FA's... The projected new CBA will result in shorter term deals.

I expect an attempt to either trade or S&T Richard Jefferson over the summer... Which makes projecting this very difficult.

I would not actually be surprised to see Mahinmi resigned; I doubt any team offers him more than the LLE (in fact I would be surprised at more than the vet min), and our bird rights are sufficient to exceed this. It would be a mutually beneficial arrangement. Ian gets more money, and not having to move, etc. The Spurs get a big who has experience in the system and doesn't count against their FA space... A similar argument can be made for re-signing Bonner; I hope that the FO does not make it. I am not a fan of him on our team.

[BillMc]

An interesting analysis. I agree with your logic. I really hope that those percentages (70% for Manu, 60% for Splitter) are close. I want them both here.

I think you might indeed be right that Ian could also be here (though very small chance, say 15%). He could also be in Europe. We'll see.

[Thompson]

If I were Ian, there's no way I re-sign here. Even in the early part of the year, Pop wouldn't give him any minutes or a legitimate shot at the rotation. If I had to take less money for a year (but had a shot at actual minutes) I'd go elsewhere. I hope for the Spurs' sake he stays, but I don't think I would.

I hope Sanikidze can bulk up a bit this summer, it would be nice to have another draft pick come out of nowhere and produce for us.

[ace3g]

either in trades or FA signing

Long 3's. Spurs are still looking for that long 3 wing defender to replace Bowen, I think getting 1 or 2 of these guy will definitely help.

1. Wilson Chandler
2. Nocioni
3. Martel Webster
4. Josh Childress
5. Dorell Wright
6. Travis Outlaw

ofcourse this all depends on what direction the Spurs go in the draft

[AFBlue]

The 2010 Free Agency discussion begins and ends with two players, Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili. It's pretty clear the Spurs FO is expected to make a hard run at Splitter and they've likely reserved most, if not all of the MLE to do so. If he decides to return to his current Euro team or go elsewhere in Europe, it'll throw a huge wrench into the Spurs' plans.

Does anyone have an idea what "Plan B" might actually be?

Spurs are in an even stickier situation with Manu. If Manu decides to walk in free agency, the Spurs are only left with two options to replace him...use the aformentioned MLE and forget about Splitter, or make a trade using the expiring contract of RJ. Neither of these options truly "replace" Manu though.

Best case scenario is that the Spurs extend Manu prior to him hitting free agency and they get a verbal from Splitter prior to free agency beginning that he'll join the team.

Worst case...well, I don't want to think about worst case.

[montgod]

Wasn't sure this was the most current FA forum, but I wanted to throw a name out there: Earl Barron.

He currently is signed for the rest of the season by the Knicks and has done really well statwise as a Center. He is 7 foot and around 245lbs. Anyone actually watch his game to see if he would be worth a flyer?

[Libri]

2010 Free Agents List

Thanks for updating the list. That's a lot of work.

[Bruno]

Thanks.

So, I've added some FA profiles. I will add the remaining FAs later. There are left some bad players (like Cardinal), some pipe dreams (like Lebron), some never will be a Spur (like Finley or Stackhouse) or some that will never be a FA (like RJ).

If you want to talk about a FA whose profile hasn't been made, just let me know. It's also true for draft prospects, international prospects or trade targets.

[HarlemHeat37]

Nice job Bruno, appreciate it, as always..

[mountainballer]

after the 1st round out of Miami, Wade said some things that many commentators read as indirect evidence that he will stay in Miami.
that's not a surprise.
the interesting part IMO is, that this would be the first domino to fall and that then the other big questions might be decided quickly.
if Wade re signs, Heat will offer the max. to either Bosh or Amare. I can see Bosh go to Miami. with Wade, Beasley, Chalmers and a likely re signed Haslem they have a quality core to build around. (other than the Knicks, who start from scratch)

[Bruno]

When I look at Heat situation, there is a trade opportunity that strikes me for Spurs with Daequan Cook.

Cook has been horrible this year and he has a $2.2M salary next year. Heat will likely try to dump to create more cap space.

Spurs can absorb Cook salary by trading 3 of their 4 players with a non guaranteed contract (Jerrels, Temple, Hairston and Gee). They were also very high on Cook during the draft and they need a shooter with Mason gone.

What asset Heat is ready to give up to create this cap space? They have the 18th pick in the draft. This pick will also take some cap space. Could they package Cook and #18 for some players with non guaranteed contracts? This trade will cost some money to Spurs, are they ready to spend it?

[dc_spursfan]

His defense is not great but does a good job in hitting 3's and passing is Mike Miller.

[AFBlue]

The 2010 Free Agency discussion begins and ends with two players, Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili. It's pretty clear the Spurs FO is expected to make a hard run at Splitter and they've likely reserved most, if not all of the MLE to do so. If he decides to return to his current Euro team or go elsewhere in Europe, it'll throw a huge wrench into the Spurs' plans.

Does anyone have an idea what "Plan B" might actually be?

Spurs are in an even stickier situation with Manu. If Manu decides to walk in free agency, the Spurs are only left with two options to replace him...use the aformentioned MLE and forget about Splitter, or make a trade using the expiring contract of RJ. Neither of these options truly "replace" Manu though.

Best case scenario is that the Spurs extend Manu prior to him hitting free agency and they get a verbal from Splitter prior to free agency beginning that he'll join the team.

Worst case...well, I don't want to think about worst case.

Well 1 out of 2 so far has come true...and the latest feeling is that Splitter will cross the pond this off-season. If this is the case, the Spurs are in the best possible position going forward.

The next major concern is whether or not RJ decides to opt out of the last year of his contract, thus becoming a FA. As much as he has underwhelmed given what he was brought in to do and the size of his current contract, I think alot of people would welcome the idea of him opting out. But it's not that simple...

Given Manu's extension, the consequence of RJ opting out would put the Spurs about $5M under the projected cap. This is roughly the same amount as would be available if the Spurs were over the cap and had the Mid-Level Exception at their disposal...with one big difference. If RJ opts out they've got to replace him using the same money that they've already likely tabbed to bring over Splitter. Essentially, they'll have to fill two needs instead of one with the same amount of money.

That's why it's actually beneficial for RJ to "opt in" to the last year of his deal and for the Spurs to either use him or trade his expiring contract for a player (likely with a longer contract) to replace his production.

But if he opts out, it'll be interesting to see how the Spurs proceed. It's definitely the next thing I'm watching for...

[AFBlue]

When I look at Heat situation, there is a trade opportunity that strikes me for Spurs with Daequan Cook.

Cook has been horrible this year and he has a $2.2M salary next year. Heat will likely try to dump to create more cap space.

Spurs can absorb Cook salary by trading 3 of their 4 players with a non guaranteed contract (Jerrels, Temple, Hairston and Gee). They were also very high on Cook during the draft and they need a shooter with Mason gone.

What asset Heat is ready to give up to create this cap space? They have the 18th pick in the draft. This pick will also take some cap space. Could they package Cook and #18 for some players with non guaranteed contracts? This trade will cost some money to Spurs, are they ready to spend it?

This makes too much sense NOT to happen. Unfortunately, you've posted it in the "free agency" thread when there's a perfectly usable "trade discussion thread".

Just kidding.

[mountainballer]

it might be crucial for the Heat to dump Cook.
not for the max offer for Bosh or Amare (or another max player), but for re signing Haslem. Haslem isn't the best player in the world, but he is a fan favorite, good friend of Wade and a bit the soul of the Heat. he might take a pay cut from his 7 million to stay with the Heat, but for sure he doesn't accept a offer only half of his current salary. he will get at least MLE offers on the FA market. so, if it comes down to a decision between Cook and Haslem, it's an easy choice for Riley.

[AFBlue]

Outside of the two major items in limbo (Splitter and RJ), the Spurs are going to have to decide what they want their bench and reserve corps to look like next year. Guys like Bogans, Mason, Bonner and Mahinmi are unrestricted FAs while the Spurs hold non-guaranteed options on the young guys (Jerrells, Temple, Gee and Hairston).

It would seem very simple to replace the Mason and Bogans positions in-house with Temple and Hairston, but there are a couple outside candidates that make sense...Nando De Colo (second round pick last year) and Raja Bell both discussed in their respective threads. The two with outside shots at making the roster appear to be Jerrells and Gee, who will likely get additional "seasoning" in Austin should they be retained.

The two that bring up the most discussion are Bonner and Mahinmi for two very different reasons...

Bonner is an absolute known quan y...he's does one thing very well (3pt shooting) and is below average in all other areas (defense, rebounding, etc.). He is the epitome of a role player and should be paid as such. Right now he makes $3M/yr and if he accepts a similar paycheck for the next couple years, I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that he's back in a Spurs uni next year.

Mahinmi on the other hand, remains an enigma. He's still only 23 years old and has developed slowly, but nicely, into a capable offensive player. He appears to be very efficient when he gets time on the court...but therein lies the problem. For some reason, Pop has chosen not to give Mahinmi the opportunity to really earn minutes. And though Mahinmi doesn't appear to have a great "feel for the game", he's too talented and productive to sit the bench much longer. With Tiago Splitter slated to come in and chew up some significant minutes at C, the outlook for playing time doesn't appear to be improving for Ian. As much as I would like to see him on the Spurs bench as a long athletic F/C, he's probably not going to be willing to sit there anymore...and as an unrestricted FA, he has the right to go elsewhere.

Again these decisions seem secondary to the Splitter/RJ decisions, but filling out the bench with productive players is definitely an important discussion.

[Mr Bones]

Barring trades or other big, unexpected moves I think the main focus will be Splitter-- and rightly so. One under-the-radar guy I like is Dominic McGuire. He's a 6'9" defensive minded SF who gets a good amount of rebounds, block shots, and steals as a bench player. He'd fit in with the Spurs and would probably be a very cheap option. Another guy I like is Anthony Morrow, but even his price tag is probably going to be too high at this point.

[FeZZy]

Anthony Morrow = 3 Point shooting

[ace3g]

So will Lebron along with all the other big name FA, help the Spurs land some quality shooters below their asking price?

[Duncan2177]

Brad Miller?

[ace3g]

If the Spurs can get Splitter to sign what is the earliest he can sign since he he is playing overseas.

For example, after his season is over with in the Spanish league can the Spurs sign him?

[DesignatedT]

If the Spurs can get Splitter to sign what is the earliest he can sign since he he is playing overseas.

For example, after his season is over with in the Spanish league can the Spurs sign him?

July 1st I believe. They might be able to come to a verbal agreement after his season is done but nothing official until free agency starts (july 1)

[AFBlue]

July 1st I believe. They might be able to come to a verbal agreement after his season is done but nothing official until free agency starts (july 1)

I think it might actually be July 8th when you can officially sign someone, with July 1st being the first official day free agents can be contacted by other teams.

Someone might have to check me on that. You're right about anything before then being verbal though.

[Blackjack]

July 1st I believe. They might be able to come to a verbal agreement after his season is done but nothing official until free agency starts (july 1)

I think it might actually be July 8th when you can officially sign someone, with July 1st being the first official day free agents can be contacted by other teams.

Someone might have to check me on that. You're right about anything before then being verbal though.

Players may be signed July 8, 2010.

Exceptions to the moratorium:

• Teams may sign their first round draft picks (to a standard rookie "scale" contract -- see question number 41)
• A second round draft pick can accept a required tender, which is a one-year contract offer teams must submit to retain their rights to the player.
• A restricted free agent can accept a qualifying offer from his prior team (see question number 36).
• A restricted free agent finishing the fourth season of his rookie "scale" contract can accept a maximum qualifying offer. The player will receive the maximum salary, but the actual amount is not determined until the end of the moratorium (see question number 36).
• Teams may sign players to minimum salary contracts for one or two seasons.