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  1. #101
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Read "The End of Oil" by Paul Roberts.
    I probably could have written that book, but the materials he based that summary on are all easily found online.

    I share his optimism that we can find renewables to step up into the gap, as we have a LOT of good ideas and proven research in that area now.

    It isn't a big leap of intuition to think that the trend of declining costs for newables will continue, and that will mitigate a lot of the most doom and gloom scenarios.

  2. #102
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    ?


    Yes or no, genius, Can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?
    By the way jackie boy, until you answer this very simple question, you have pretty much demonstrated how little you truly understand the situation, and your ignorant opinion can be pretty much tossed in the toilet and flushed like any other unpleasant turd.

    This is a simple question with a readily provable answer.

    Can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?

  3. #103
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    I probably could have written that book, but the materials he based that summary on are all easily found online.

    I share his optimism that we can find renewables to step up into the gap, as we have a LOT of good ideas and proven research in that area now.

    It isn't a big leap of intuition to think that the trend of declining costs for newables will continue, and that will mitigate a lot of the most doom and gloom scenarios.
    We are seeing doom and gloom. Wake up. Our recession/depression followed a huge e in oil prices. Our Gulf is about to die. American troops fighting wars in two countries over our dependency. How much more doom and gloom do you want?

  4. #104
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    Its time to start turning this ship around, like 10 years ago.

  5. #105
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    We are seeing doom and gloom. Wake up. Our recession/depression followed a huge e in oil prices. Our Gulf is about to die. American troops fighting wars in two countries over our dependency. How much more doom and gloom do you want?
    There is no oil in Afghanistan.

    I am fairly certain at this point that the current asset bubble was pricked by the oil price e.

  6. #106
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    There is no oil in Afghanistan.

    I am fairly certain at this point that the current asset bubble was pricked by the oil price e.
    We were attacked by terrorists in Afghanistan as a direct result of our foriegn policy in the middle east, which is entirely driven by our dependency.

    Again, cant always see the big picture on the face of things. Thats why its the big picture.

  7. #107
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    We were attacked by terrorists in Afghanistan as a direct result of our foriegn policy in the middle east, which is entirely driven by our dependency.

    Again, cant always see the big picture on the face of things. Thats why its the big picture.

    <shakes head>

  8. #108
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    "There is no oil in Afghanistan."

    There is lots of oil and goas in the eastern Caspian sea and eastern shore of Caspian, in Turkmenestan, Kazakstan. US oilcos have been agitating for a pipeline across AFGHANISTAN since the 1990s.

  9. #109
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    We aren't reviled in the middle east for no reason...regardless of what your preacher or your favorite conservative talk show host tells you. Its not that simple. Maybe they hate us because we do like use our military might to take over a ing country, who just happens to own one of the top three oil reserves in the world, and immediately install a friendly govt while killing thousands of their people?

    Oh, but that isnt it at all...its their hate of our freedom, our bald eagle and our shopping malls that causes them to attack us...give me a ing break...

    Yeah I know, Saddam had it coming, but understand that if you run around stepping on people to continue supporting your oil habit, there are consequences.

  10. #110
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    "There is no oil in Afghanistan."

    There is lots of oil and goas in the eastern Caspian sea and eastern shore of Caspian, in Turkmenestan, Kazakstan. US oilcos have been agitating for a pipeline across AFGHANISTAN since the 1990s.
    Good call. I like your style.

  11. #111
    Veteran jack sommerset's Avatar
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    It is the biggest sign of a loser in an argument that they declare victory and go home.
    lmfao. Desperate act for attention. Never delcared war or victory, did not go home and I am having a conversation that can be picked up anytime. You argue all you want big boy. Climb the tallest mountain and cryout "The sky is falling, the sky is falling, please will someone listen to me, the sky is falling." Read Chicken Little. You have alot in common.


    I do know how the free market works, you are the one who wants the government to forbid companies to sell oil to maximize profits.
    No, you don't and I never said I wanted the government to forbid companies to sell oil to maximize profits. Another sign you are desperate. You simply make up .


    I don't need to know exactly how much oil is in existence to know what is likely to happen.
    Yes you do boy genuis. No way you could have written "The End of Oil" or even a letter to hustler. You have to have some sort of expierence in these fields to do so.


    Yes or no, genius, Can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?
    So important to you that you had to ask it twice. Little s like you like asking question you know the answer too. You think it validates everything you said, it doesn't. You also said we would run out of oil before your grandchild could drive, didn't you. You admit you exagerated that one and one day you will admit you exagerate the doom and gloom you have presented to us today.

    I have no clue when the oil will run out. Neither do you. The Earth will not last forever. Everything dies. I know that. I'm sure you will agree with me on that. There will be a alternative to oil one day. Be patient and quit acting like a bag know-it-all. You have no clue how much oil we have or any country has for that matter and you have no clue when it will run out. You have no clue what alternative we will have for oil. All you know is you want our government to tax us more and there is a good chance USA will not be able to produce oil at a 2 % increase every year FOREVER. On top of that you think the money the feds tax us for gas will all go to the development of other alternatives. Very stupid or naive.

    Guess what? I'm taking my kid to Toy Story 3 , wonderboy. I'm sure you think I'm running away from your ignorant ass but live with the fact that you (spewstalk) are down pretty low on my list of things I like to do. I thought that was the same for everyone. I am having my doubts with you

    Do all conversation last forever?
    Last edited by jack sommerset; 06-18-2010 at 12:14 PM.

  12. #112
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    You have no clue how much oil we have or any country has for that matter and you have no clue when it will run out. You have no clue what alternative we will have for oil.
    Actually this information is out there to be had. Sure, its not definite, but by the middle of this century our supply will be nowhere near the level of our consumption. Thats not the time you want to be coming up with solutions. As a matter of fact by that time, we wont have an economy sufficient to make drastic technological advancements.

    Even depressed economies wont help to slow us, unless they hit all of Asia and the west simultaneously.

  13. #113
    Veteran jack sommerset's Avatar
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    Actually this information is out there to be had. Sure, its not definite, but by the middle of this century our supply will be nowhere near the level of our consumption. Thats not the time you want to be coming up with solutions. As a matter of fact by that time, we wont have an economy sufficient to make drastic technological advancements.

    Even depressed economies wont help to slow us, unless they hit all of Asia and the west simultaneously.
    LOL@ to be had. Not currently. I have to jump off this merry-go-round. It truly is boring me and I have better things to do. Nobody knows and I am tired of repeating it. Enjoys the day guys and dolls.

  14. #114
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    LOL@ to be had. Not currently. I have to jump off this merry-go-round. It truly is boring me and I have better things to do. Nobody knows and I am tired of repeating it. Enjoys the day guys and dolls.
    You dont really fit into this sort of discussion. Next time you might make better use of your expertise by joining a discussion in a celeb gossip chat room

  15. #115
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Yes or no, genius, Can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?

    All you know... is ... there is a good chance USA will not be able to produce oil at a 2 % increase every year FOREVER.
    That is not the question I asked.

    There is a very definite yes or no answer to the question, there is no "good chance" one way or the other.

    Yes or no.

    Either you can quit bull ting me with how smart you are and how good your argument is, or you can man up and answer the question.

    Every time you fail to answer a simple yes or no question, you make it more and more clear that you have not the first clue about this issue.

    Now for the second time,


    Yes or no, can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?

  16. #116
    Veteran jack sommerset's Avatar
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    You dont really fit into this sort of discussion. Next time you might make better use of your expertise by joining a discussion in a celeb gossip chat room
    No, you don't.

  17. #117
    Veteran jack sommerset's Avatar
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    Yes or no, genius, Can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?



    That is not the question I asked.

    There is a very definite yes or no answer to the question, there is no "good chance" one way or the other.

    Yes or no.

    Either you can quit bull ting me with how smart you are and how good your argument is, or you can man up and answer the question.

    Every time you fail to answer a simple yes or no question, you make it more and more clear that you have not the first clue about this issue.

    Now for the second time,


    Yes or no, can we increase oil production every year by 2% forever?
    Actually it's the 3rd time, genius. I answered it. Re-read. It's there. I promise!

  18. #118
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Actually it's the 3rd time, genius. I answered it. Re-read. It's there. I promise!
    I don't really count the second time. You didn't log on between #1 and #2, so it isn't fair to count it.

    I re-read it. You didn't answer the question.

    If you did, you will have to say it again for my poor lib level of reading comprehension.

    Yes or no, for the third time.

    Can we (either the US and/or the world in general) keep increasing our oil production by 2% forever? (assuming no restrictions on oil drilling anywhere)

  19. #119
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Since jack is too lazy or dishonest to answer a direct question, I will do his work for him.

    The answer is no. No we can't.

    Mass of oil produced in 2008 in pounds = 8,206,660,000,000 or 8.2066 x 10 to the 12th power.

    (7 pounds per gallon times best available oil data on world production converted to gallsons)
    http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_much_d...rude_oil_weigh
    http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb1105.html

    Increase this by 2% per year and by year and by the year 3411 the total weight of all the oil you have extracted equals:

    1.63 x 10 to the 25th power.

    Total mass of the earth:
    1.32 x 10 to the 25th power

    Assuming you can convert the earth into oil and keep going...

    By the year 5533, your yearly production of oil will equal the mass of the sun. This leaves aside the fact that the total amount you will have produced will have exceeded the mass of the total solar system, sun included, several years before that.

    So for the answer to that question to be "yes" jackie boy, you are telling me that we can convert the earth into oil in a little over a thousand years, and the solar system into oil in a bit over three thousand years.

    I think it is safe to say this is physically impossible.

    Therefore, the answer MUST be "no".

    We cannot keep increasing oil production. It is quite literally impossible.

    It isn't my opinion, you dip , that "there is a good chance" we cannot keep adding 2% to our production forever. It is a mathmatical certainty.

  20. #120
    The D.R.A. Drachen's Avatar
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    I am just real curious as to if jack knows how oil is actually bought and sold. Also, I am curious if Jack knows that, without incentive, human's don't generally change their behavior. If Government provides fiscal incentive to get off of oil, rather than incentive to produce more oil, then and only then, will we get off of oil.

  21. #121
    Veteran rjv's Avatar
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    fusion, baby, fusion!

  22. #122
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    We were attacked by terrorists in Afghanistan as a direct result of our foriegn policy in the middle east, which is entirely driven by our dependency.
    Indeed. In that way oil was related to our invasion of afghanistan, but only peripherally.

    I have met no few number of people who seem to think we invaded Afghanistan to "get their oil", though, and was simply trying to make sure that was clear here.

  23. #123
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Cap and trade works like this:
    1) everyone has an equal right to pollute up to a certain emissions cap.
    2) dirty companies must clean up and upgrade equip and fixtures sufficient to come in under the cap, or pay the tax.
    2.5) the cap slowly gets lowered, prompting companies to improve operations slowly over time
    3) companies who have newer facilities have an advantage, because they pollute less, and if they come in under the cap, they have extra credits to sell on the carbon market (many already exist in the US). They can sell extra credits to companies who are over, and companies who are over can relenquish these credits back to the govt for a "pass" on their pollution overages.
    4) Thus, as the cap is slowly lowered (by reducing credits distributed), companies using older equip will eventually find it necessary to upgrade operations, because less credits on the market means higher price to buy compliance. When the price of credits is greater than the price to bring your facility into the 21st century, you will upgrade or operate at a loss.
    5) All the while, this simultaneously drives the new tech market, because companies will be actively be seeking a good deal on new cleaner tech.
    Yes, that's the general concept. I know that already. Have estimated numbers by chance?

    Now put in supply and demand pricing. Get a clue, this is expected to cost an average of something like $1200 to $1800 averaged per family in extra costs associated with Cap and Trade annually. This is money better spent in other aspects of our economy rather than buying credits from foreign nations.
    Last edited by Wild Cobra; 06-21-2010 at 11:29 AM.

  24. #124
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    LOL... post #119 by Random Propaganda.

    Typical liberal BS.

    Liberals think that in forecasts, that economic forces are static rather than dynamic.

  25. #125
    Believe. Parker2112's Avatar
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    Yes, that's the general concept. I know that already. have estimated numbers by chance?

    Now put in supply and demand pricing. Gert a clue, this is expected to cost an average of something like $1200 to $1800 averaged per family in extra costs associated with Cap and Trade annually. This is money better spent in other aspects of our economy rather than buying credits from foreign nations.
    These numbers are issued to scare the public by those with interests at stake. In reality, these numbers cant be determined until the tax scheme is fully fleshed out. In order to know these details, you need to know: what industries will be regulated? how agressive will the scheme be from the start? how fast will you ramp up the caps? is the fed gov willing to reduce other taxation to counteract the extra cost to consumers?

    These numbers are false from the word go, and you have to be skeptical of anyone who claims like this. they are trying to build opposition through fear.

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