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Did you forget to quantify the growth, or does it just embarrass you to do so now that you've admitted the recovery is so far a jobless one?
Is it, now? Sure about that? In a consumer driven economy THIS doesn't sound like good news...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38276678
Consumer Sentiment Sinks To Lowest Level in 11 Months
Consumer sentiment weakened in early July to its lowest in 11 months on a resurgence in fears about the economy, a year since the recovery began, a private survey released Friday showed.
The reversal in consumer sentiment was dramatic after it reached its strongest level in nearly 2-1/2 years last month on hopes of better job and credit conditions, according to Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers.
The survey's preliminary July reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment plummeted to 66.5 from 76.0 in June.
The figure was below the median forecast of 74.5 among economists polled by Reuters.
"Income and job prospects were extraordinarily weak and those bleak prospects have made consumers much more cautious spenders," Richard Curtin, director of the surveys, said in a statement.
This steep pullback in sentiment is ominous for the U.S. economy, which is already showing signs of slowing.
Consumer spending accounts for some 70 percent of the U.S. economy. The latest survey showed consumers' intention to buy durable items such as cars fell to its lowest in nine months.
"Moreover, consumers reported renewed weakness in the economy and were more likely to anticipate additional problems in the year ahead," Curtin said.
The survey's barometer of current economic conditions tumbled to 75.5 in early July, the lowest since November 2009.
This compared with 85.6 in June, which was the highest since March 2008. Analysts had predicted a figure of 84.0 for early July.
The survey's gauge of consumer expectations slid to 60.6, the lowest since March 2009. This compared with 69.8 in June, while analysts had predicted a reading of 68.4 in early July.
The measure on consumers' 12-month economic outlook deteriorated to 65.0 in early July, which was the lowest since April 2009.
It stood at 79.0 in June. In addition to worries about jobs and household finances, consumers expected inflation to pick up in the coming months.
The survey's one-year inflation expectations measure ticked up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 in June, while the five-to-10-year outlook index firmed to 2.9 percent from June's 2.8.
Did you forget to quantify the growth, or does it just embarrass you to do so now that you've admitted the recovery is so far a jobless one?
I simply stated the economy is getting better and you freaked out..
I guess I could find pie charts, cool graphs, or link arfticles to it. Is that what you are requiring? I am going back and try and find where I claimed that the job market was rebounding before I respond to being embarassed.
ECONOMIC GROWTH – March 2010 QUARTER
Published 24 June 2010
The economic recovery continues...
Economic activity increased by 0.6% in the March 2010 quarter, slightly above market expectations (Figure 1). This was the fourth consecutive quarter of economic growth following a 15-month recession and lifted annual growth to 1.9% (Figure 2). The 0.6% rise over the March 2010 quarter confirms that the recovery remains on track, although growth was down slightly from the 0.9% recorded in the December 2009 quarter.
http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/...mic-growth.asp
Need more quantifying?
You just agreed with me about 3 posts back that real unemployment probably HASN'T gone down.
I agree with you but I seem to remember the bush defenders never mentioned this class of unemployed.
Pot, Kettle, Black
9.7 to 9.5.. that's going down to me... what does that mean to you?
You just agreed with me about 3 posts back that real unemployment probably HASN'T gone down.
Pot, Kettle, Black
It means when you move several hundred thousand people from the "unemployed" list to the "gave up looking for work" category you can make your unemployment "number" go down.
The REAL unemployment number is closer to 20% than it is to 9.5%
Many, many people have a hand in this. Bush & the Republicans caught the blame at first; now the Dems are reaping their share - plenty to go around.
To answer your question; neither, and both, as well as Wall-Street, the Fed, and the general population. I, however, had nothing to do with it.
That about sums up how I feel.
It's partly my fault. 5+ years ago I cut up all the credit cards and went on a serious "get out of debt" binge. Our consumer society requires that we all do our part by continuing to spend, spend, spend and worry about debt later. Guess I'm just a slacker.
You're right, my bad. Got a reasonable amount of bank; no credit card debt - 4 and 7 year old vehicles, etc.....
Not as patriotic as I thought I was.
Yeah, I'm real estate poor but knocking down $2800 a month in principal. I'm un-american for doing that instead of pissing it off buying I really don't need that will wear out in a couple of years.
Nope. As stated it seems to lack nothing for precision. Thank you.
just as blacks use the race card, Obama and his admin use the Bush card every chance they get
That said, I do believe all government figures should be taken grano salis.
There's never been a bigger excuse to massage official figures, than right now.
Sometimes the revisions don't move the needle as much as the initial moves, but there's lots of revisions. I won't say anything about the trend of initial reporting, but the recurrent phenomenon of revised figures suggests entrenched optimism. When the government revises the numbers downward months later, fewer people notice.
Months or years later of course, people do notice. Overworking a tactical advantage can be a strategic fault.
glad I could clear things up for you.Nope. As stated it seems to lack nothing for precision. Thank you.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-tumbling.html
Fed's volte face sends the dollar tumbling
Rarely before have a few coded words in the minutes of the US Federal Reserve caused such an upheaval in the global currency system, or such a sudden flight from the dollar.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 8:52PM BST 15 Jul 2010
150 Comments
The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt
The euro rocketed to a two-month high of $1.29 and sterling jumped two cents to almost $1.54 after the Fed confessed that the US economy may not recover for five or six years. Far from winding down emergency stimulus, the bank may need a fresh blast of bond purchases or quan ative easing.
Usually the dollar serves as a safe haven whenever the world takes fright, and there was plenty of sobering news from China and other quarters on Thursday. Not this time. The US itself has become the problem.
"The worm is turning," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "We're in a world of rotating sovereign crises. The market seems to become obsessed with one idea at a time, then violently swings towards another. People thought the euro would break-up. Now we're moving into a new phase because we're hearing alarm bells of a US double dip."
Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said.
The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.
"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.
"The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months."
The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus.
Goldman Sachs said it expects the euro to rise to $1.35 by the end of the year. The yen will appreciate to ¥83, through the pain barrier for most of Japan's big exporters. The new twist is that SAFE, China's $2.4 trillion fund, has begun buying record amounts of Japanese bonds, a shift in reserve allocation away from the dollar.
The signs of a deep and sudden slowdown in the US are becoming ever clearer as the "sugar rush" from the Obama fiscal stimulus wears off and the inventory boost fades. California, Illinois and other states are cutting spending, tightening US fiscal policy by 0.8pc of GDP.
Thursday's plunge in the Philadelphia Fed's July index of new manufacturing orders to –4.3 suggests that the economy may have buckled abruptly, as it did in mid-2008. The Economic Cycle Research Ins ute's ECRI leading indicator has tumbled, reaching –8.3pc last week. This points to a sharp slowdown or recession within three months.
While US port data looked buoyant in June, the details were troubling. Outbound traffic from Long Beach fell from 139,000 containers in May to 116,000 in June. Shipments from Los Angeles fell from 161,000 to 155,000. This drop in exports is worsening the US trade deficit, eroding the dollar.
The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt. Retail sales have fallen for the past two months. New homes sales crashed to 300,000 in May after tax credits ran out, the lowest since records began in 1963. Mortgage applications have fallen by 42pc to 13-year low since April. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the "shadow inventory" of unsold properties has risen to 7.8m. "The double dip in housing has begun," he said.
Alcoa, CSX, Intel, and JP Morgan have reported good earnings, but they mostly did so in July 2008 just before their shares collapsed. Such earnings rarely catch turning points and can be a lagging indicator. Profits have been boosted in this cycle by cost-cutting, which is self-defeating for the economy as a whole.
The minutes confirm the Fed is split down the middle over QE. Fed watchers say the Board in Washington wants to be ready to launch another round of bond purchases if necessary, pushing the banks balance sheet from $2.4 trillion towards $5 trillion, but hawks at the regional banks are highly sceptical.
A study by the San Francisco Fed said the interest rates need to be –4.5pc to stabilise the economy under the Fed's "rule of thumb". Since this is impossible, massive QE needs to make up the difference.
Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the US authorities have botched policy response. "They are forcing banks to contract lending by raising their capital asset ratios. They have let M3 shrink by 1pc a month, as in the early 1930s. The solution is simple. The Fed must raise the level of deposits by purchasing bonds from the non-banking system as the Bank of England has done. They refuse to do it," he said.
The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.
"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.
Can somebody explain this, please? I don't get it at all.The solution is simple. The Fed must raise the level of deposits by purchasing bonds from the non-banking system as the Bank of England has done. They refuse to do it," he said.
Obama said we are out of the mess.
Maybe the economy isn't going to be at full capacity, like it was after bush's policies got us out of a depression, but there should be signs that it is moving in that direction.
Also expecting 2 years of Dem control isn't turning on a dime. It's a big body cadillac turn but we didn't turn.
if it's due to federal job hiring, then no it's not going down.
Govt also hire Military Contractor, Boeing, Lockheed. many work for NASA and are on government/Jew welfare check.
Those comments by Obama makes him come off as being an ungrateful pussy. People honestly don't give a that Bush caused this . Obama is president. He was elected to clean up Bush's messes and has just made more messes since he became president.
So basically they will remember that Bush ed it all up and that Obama was worthless to fix it, therefore vote someone else in to fix the mess.
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