RJ watch is over. He'll re-sign tomorrow

[MaNu4Tres]

There's a good chance Spurs may be getting away with robbery with this new deal, considering Jefferson's stock is at an all-time low.

[TD 21]

RJ can knock down corner 3s at a respectable level. I know he didn't take a lot last season, only attempted 75 corner 3s. He made 27. That is 36%. It must be noted that he shot 39.5% from the right corner and the right corner 2, he shot 57.6%. He adds that extra dimension of pump-faking, and being able to step in two or three feet for his high percentage shot at least from the right side. That was last season.

Going backwards, in Milwaukee (his career scoring year), Jefferson shot 45.8% from the corner 3. In a coincidence, he took and made the same amount of shots from both corners in 2009. From the right 45 degree angle, he shot 43.2% from 3 as opposed to 29.5% from the left 45 degree angle.

My conclusion, though not perfect, is that Jefferson has the ability to shoot both corner 3s but is somewhat weaker on the left side, as opposed to the right. His inability to get shots in due to the fact that he is opposite the floor where Tim Duncan sets up from, the left block. Jefferson has always been placed on the right side of the court to maximize his efficiency and not his touches.

Good post. I've never been a big Jefferson fan (I thought he was an overrated showboat in his earlier days), but to be fair...

This notion that he can't shoot the three (particularly from the corner) is ridiculous. The guy had an off year from three. If you look at his career, he's been a decent three point shooter (34.8%) and has gradually improved throughout his career. If two seasons ago was an aberration at 39.7%, then last season was too, at 31.6%. There's no reason to think he won't shoot at least around his career average next season. I suspect he'll be slightly higher, something around 36%, which is above his career average, but in line with him gradually progressing throughout his career.

[MaNu4Tres]

This notion that he can't shoot the three (particularly from the corner) is ridiculous. The guy had an off year from three. If you look at his career, he's been a decent three point shooter (34.8%) and has gradually improved throughout his career. If two seasons ago was an aberration at 39.7%, then last season was too, at 31.6%. There's no reason to think he won't shoot at least around his career average next season. I suspect he'll be slightly higher, something around 36%, which is above his career average, but in line with him gradually progressing throughout his career.

Jefferson actually shot 39 % the first 2 months of the season from 3. The months of December, January and February was where he gradually lost confidence in his shot (for w/e reason).

He then resorted to being more aggressive at taking the ball to the basket, which consequently increased his overall shooting percentage and free throw attempts.

Hopefully this summer he regains confidence in the three. That one aspect can open up so many things for the overall offense as whole and for himself.

[Chieflion]

Now going deeper into the analysis, assuming Master Splitter can be somewhat of a good low-post option from the right side, and able to draw double teams on a rare occasion, RJ would be able to make the defense pay for leaving him open as he would be on the right side of the court too.*

This only happens if Tiago Splitter is what people thought he would be and not only just a hustle player.

[HarlemHeat37]

Jefferson simply needs the ball to be effective, since he isn't a standout shooter, and he's an average defender..

His usage % before joining the Spurs in the last few seasons was: 24, 26, 22, 22..

His usage % with the Spurs this season was 18..

Even with his low production and usage this season, his WS/48 was still as much or more as any of those seasons, which speaks on how hollow and empty those raw stats were(as does his PER, other numbers as well)..

At this point of his career, Jefferson needs a high usage % to be a consistent scorer, and he won't get that on the Spurs or any other good team..if Jefferson has a high usage %, you're pretty much guaranteed to be a mediocre team..

Where are his touches going to come from?..while I agree that Jefferson was at times underused, his assisted % numbers aren't different from the previous 2 seasons in Milwaukee and New Jersey..in fact, during his last year in NJ, he actually created even less offense for himself than he did during this past season with the Spurs..

Jefferson needs to have the ball in his hands, and he needs the team to focus on running plays for him..they simply can't do this in San Antonio, because the Spurs have 3 guys that are clearly better options than him, and it now appears that George Hill has emerged as a better option as well..I hope they will run more plays for him(screens, cuts, post-ups, alley-oops, whatever), but it won't be enough for him to contribute on a consistent basis IMO..

His team defense could get better with added knowledge of the system, but Jefferson has never really been a high IQ player, despite what Pop has said..he quite often made ridiculously stupid plays with the Spurs last season, and he probably missed more rotations than anybody on the team..I think his added knowledge + his continued decline in athleticism will cancel each other out..

I agree his shooting will be better, but how much better?..

36%, 34%, 32%, 36%, 36%, 40%, 32% is his 3-point % for his career since he became a 3-point shooter..he shot 40% with the Bucks with the highest total volume of any other season..this is clearly an anomaly, since he had never done this in the past, and he couldn't even come close the following season..

39%, 42%, 42%, 45%, 45%, 43%, 46%, 41% are his overall jump shot % numbers..the Milwaukee % was the highest by a slight margin, but it was also the most volume by a good margin, so also most likely an anomaly, since he had a massive drop the following season..

If Jefferson improves his shooting to what should be expected, he could be a passable option as a starter..not a great option, but passable..he would still have his defensive problems, and he would still have his problems contributing..we've also seen that Jefferson often has trouble contributing in other areas when he isn't getting his touches..

So as I have said before, the best option for the Spurs and Jefferson is for him to come off the bench(with Manu starting), so he can be the focal point of the bench offense and play against mostly inferior players..

The problem for the Spurs is that they currently don't have another SF that can be a passable starter(Hairston is a question mark until preseason, and nobody else has been signed), so hopefully they can get that done..

Either way, Jefferson will more than likely not be worth what he contributes, or at least he shouldn't be, at least IMO..well, unless they get him at a bargain, which I doubt, but I'm hopeful..

[My Fault]

Beyond RJ getting better in the Spurs system doesn't anyone think Pop will actually makes changes to the system to get more out of RJ? A lot of last year was not using him to his strengths when he drove to the cup he had good games. Since the Spurs have not had anyone at the SF spot to attack the rim since Sean, the system also was the problem. If Pop was indeed working with RJ they could end up finding a way for the system to work with him in it. There was a reason everyone was excited last year for RJ coming over. He has talent. Just nobody like him has been in the Spurs system therefore a change is needed.

[ploto]

Bringing back RJ is a bad move. I do not care if they had to sign some guy at the skill level of the rest of the MLE, it would have been better than tying up 4 or 5 years on this guy. They still could have tried to work a trade at the deadline or something to bring in a SF.

Basically, the Spurs decided to switch out Splitter for Ian and add a couple of young guys who will never play, and call it an off-season.

[ElNono]

I think one adjustment Pop made midway through the season to get RJ more involved was the handoff off the pick and roll. The thing is, when you have two master of the pick and roll in Tony and Tim, it's hard to prioritize RJ. Since Splitter is supposed to be a pretty good P&R player too, there might be an opportunity there for RJ and him to run that while he's playing with the second unit. Obviously, this is a big unknown until we see Splitter out there and how he feels in the NBA.

[DPG21920]

Why should the Spurs focus on getting a 5th option involved more? It is a losing proposition to play to RJ's strengths at the expense of others. RJ's role requires him to take what is given to him.

[HarlemHeat37]

The Lakers are another good example with Artest..his usage was similar to Jefferson's this season, and he was also a prolific scorer before the season..they can't run as many plays for him, because they obviously have better options(Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom), he has trouble creating for himself too..he was used as a spot-up shooter, and he didn't respond, having one of the worst offensive playoffs in NBA history..

However, he contributed in other ways, especially with the obvious impact of his defense..

Since Jefferson can't respond as a spot-up shooter and doesn't bring any defense/toughness/IQ/intangibles, I think having him come off the bench is by far the best option for the Spurs..

So hopefully they find a competent starter at some point before next season's playoffs..

[lefty]

17 years/$102MM.

Kovalchuck ?????????????????

[My Fault]

Why should the Spurs focus on getting a 5th option involved more? It is a losing proposition to play to RJ's strengths at the expense of others. RJ's role requires him to take what is given to him.

Because it takes scoring load off the aging core. Which in part is the reason RJ was brought in. Changing the system to incoporate RJ strengths more doesn't have to be at the expense of others. Just to work as a team more.

[crc21209]

Bringing back RJ is a bad move. I do not care if they had to sign some guy at the skill level of the rest of the MLE, it would have been better than tying up 4 or 5 years on this guy. They still could have tried to work a trade at the deadline or something to bring in a SF.

Basically, the Spurs decided to switch out Splitter for Ian and add a couple of young guys who will never play, and call it an off-season.

RJ > any other scraps that would have been left out there...

[cd98]

Why should the Spurs focus on getting a 5th option involved more? It is a losing proposition to play to RJ's strengths at the expense of others. RJ's role requires him to take what is given to him.

Tim and Manu will see less playing time during the regular season. Jefferson's should get more shots this season.

[Solid D]

Kovalchuck ?????????????????

The superficial logic behind that contract (his sweater # is 17, thus 17 year contract).....using similar logic, RJ's contract would be

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Why should the Spurs focus on getting a 5th option involved more? It is a losing proposition to play to RJ's strengths at the expense of others. RJ's role requires him to take what is given to him.

Exactly! And we're likely to pay 8-10mil for that guy!? I'd rather start a scrub like Simmons, or some youth like Hairston or Gee (who knows what these guys could do given some time?).

Sheeit. Unless it's a very cheap contract (5-6mil per), this is the worst FO move since Scola... don't even mention Bonner - like him or not, 3mil a year is not massively overpaying for the guy (2mil/yr would have been about right).

RJ > any other scraps that would have been left out there...

Sure, but you don't have to sign him and clog up your cap with an unmovable contract just because he's there! , I'd rather we pay him 15mil this year and then let him go than sign him 24/3yrs given that a contract like that makes him difficult to trade (no-one wants him!).

Ugh. I really hate this move. We aren't contending with RJ, and nor are we building for the future because Pop will have to play him instead of developing two very promising youngsters in Hairston and Gee. Young players need time to shine, and we're committing to 32mpg of RJ's mediocrity.

[Mhak]

man yall fools still on this bull this man if r ing j signs for more dan 3/24 smh he better not start

Man.. you sound ingnorant and stupid!! Go suck Hairston's . You have high hopes for scurbs like yourself!!! Unless your Hairston and promoting your sorry ass in this site... GTFOH!!

[Chieflion]

People need to calm down before the contract numbers are finalized. After that, we can all join the meltdown.

[rmt]

Exactly! And we're likely to pay 8-10mil for that guy!? I'd rather start a scrub like Simmons, or some youth like Hairston or Gee (who knows what these guys could do given some time?).

Sheeit. Unless it's a very cheap contract (5-6mil per), this is the worst FO move since Scola... don't even mention Bonner - like him or not, 3mil a year is not massively overpaying for the guy (2mil/yr would have been about right).

Sure, but you don't have to sign him and clog up your cap with an unmovable contract just because he's there! , I'd rather we pay him 15mil this year and then let him go than sign him 24/3yrs given that a contract like that makes him difficult to trade (no-one wants him!).

Ugh. I really hate this move. We aren't contending with RJ, and nor are we building for the future because Pop will have to play him instead of developing two very promising youngsters in Hairston and Gee. Young players need time to shine, and we're committing to 32mpg of RJ's mediocrity.

At 24/3years, it's only 4.5mil per year (after the 15mil that he's owed) so that doesn't sound so bad considering he's the only SF on the team. I'm not so angry about RJ as Bonner because there are no other options at that position.

Bonner, on the other hand, has 4 bigs ahead of him more deserving of playing time. I hate that stat shown earlier in the thread where Blair lost most of his playing time during the playoffs and Bonner got the same amount as his RS. It's better for Blair to get valuable playoff experience so that he improves (similar to Hill his first year) than watch Bonner choke away yet another playoff. I'd much rather someone like Ratliff (with length - for the Lakers) at vet. min than Bonner long-term with a raise.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

At 24/3years, it's only 4.5mil per year (after the 15mil that he's owed) so that doesn't sound so bad considering he's the only SF on the team. I'm not so angry about RJ as Bonner because there are no other options at that position.

Bonner, on the other hand, has 4 bigs ahead of him more deserving of playing time. I hate that stat shown earlier in the thread where Blair lost most of his playing time during the playoffs and Bonner got the same amount as his RS. It's better for Blair to get valuable playoff experience so that he improves (similar to Hill his first year) than watch Bonner choke away yet another playoff. I'd much rather someone like Ratliff (with length - for the Lakers) at vet. min than Bonner long-term with a raise.

Unfortunately, your maths is not the way the salary cap is calculated. He will still be an immovable 8-10mil contract, and that hamstrings the franchise's future, all for an average player who doesn't make the team any better. Seems bloody idiotic to me.

Bonner, OTOH, is eminently moveable at 3mil per. He is Pop's stretch 4, something Pop seems unable to get by without. That isn't a big issue for 3mil/yr. I would have taken Steve Novak for the minimum, but Bonner is fine at 3mil/yr.

[AFBlue]

People need to calm down before the contract numbers are finalized. After that, we can all join the meltdown.

Agree with this. The overreaction as to what RJs contract could look like is premature. If it aligns with Manu's contract in terms of years and isn't large enough in terms of dollars to prevent a Parker extension, then it's probably a good value that gives this team the best chance of winning going forward.

I'm in wait-and-see mode at this point.

[tuncaboylu]

Unfortunately, your maths is not the way the salary cap is calculated. He will still be an immovable 8-10mil contract, and that hamstrings the franchise's future, all for an average player who doesn't make the team any better. Seems bloody idiotic to me.

I don't agree. We have 2 years left in Duncan era and we can't find a better fit than RJ by our remaining 2.4M from MLE. If we're going to try another chance to contend, bringing RJ back is a must. Maybe we could use him in S&T to find a better fit, but it doesn't seem that too many teams interest with him.

Let's assume that we won't resign with RJ. Would it make us stronger for this year? Obviously no. Would it create enoguh cap space to add a superstar in 2011 summer? No, even we don't resign with TP we don't have enoguh cap space to sign more than 8M contract with a free agent next summer.

That's why we should sign with RJ.

[024]

i would vastly prefer a S&T. jefferson doesn't fit defensively or offensively. jefferson can score but the spurs have enough offense and will get even more with splitter, blair, hill, and anderson. spurs need capable wing defenders. oh well...

[will_spurs]

I think a lot of people don't realize how bad the situation was for the Spurs before RJ opted out. He was owned $15.2m plus the luxury tax, which would probably have been around $7m. I'm sure he told the Spurs "give me the $22m I would have cost you last year but spread over 2 years, then $5m per year for 2 more years for a total of $32m over 4 years".

I don't understand why people would prefer RJ for 1 year for $22m rather than RJ for 4 years for $32m total, with a nice trade chip at the end. Wiht that kind of contract the Spurs basically get RJ for 3.5m/y for 3 years...

[ceperez]

I think a lot of people don't realize how bad the situation was for the Spurs before RJ opted out. He was owned $15.2m plus the luxury tax, which would probably have been around $7m. I'm sure he told the Spurs "give me the $22m I would have cost you last year but spread over 2 years, then $5m per year for 2 more years for a total of $32m over 4 years".

I don't understand why people would prefer RJ for 1 year for $22m rather than RJ for 4 years for $32m total, with a nice trade chip at the end. Wiht that kind of contract the Spurs basically get RJ for 3.5m/y for 3 years...

Haven't been following this, but I figure RJ is worth minimum 7m a year ( based on comparable). Now let's say he wants to be nice and spares the Spurs the luxury tax. So he wants 15m plus 7m for 3 more seasons. That is total 36m for 4 years. Anything less would be a bargain.