China bubble (Economist)

[Bogie]

You might want to ask Bogie. I don't swing that way.

You lie about everything else, but we are supposed to believe you now.

you are ideologically aligned with ducks and derp and qhris. That’s a fact.

[RandomGuy]

You are advocating for the flood of immigration from Central America which is exactly the same thing as advocating for unskilled immigration.

(facepalm)

You lie so easily, and so readily you can't keep track of it.

I am all for a flood of unskilled labor. The data says they train themselves up and their kids even more so. A total net gain for the economy.

I am NOT for UNLIMITED amounts of refugees/immigrants.

That is your lie, because you are falling all over your dumb ass to distort other's views in a way that makes it easier for you to discredit, because people of your political bent can't handle an open, honest discussion of ideas.

Do not wonder about the source of my animosity for you. It is because you do not seem to care about lying, just like Trump and the rest of the MAGA morons. Every time I set it aside, and try to deal with you halfway respectfully, you go off and do this .

[RandomGuy]

Next decade will be the last decade that China really matters. It is in the advanced stages of a demographic collapse.

They bought themselves some time hoovering up the population from the countryside, but that is gone, and they are admitting to vastly overcounting the number of women.

[RandomGuy]

Looks like the bubble has finally burst. The pandemic seems to have been the last straw, with the demographic collapse hitting.

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/Beefeater_Fella/...71114322161666

It is the worlds biggest manufacturer, the economy is entirely dependent on its exports. The global supply chain is moving out of China, as evidence with major manufacturers such as Foxconn closing down their vast #manufacturing sites across China. June 2023 results show exports fell by 12.2%, the biggest fall in 3 years since the outbreak of Covid-19 and the pace of exits from China is speeding up. This follows a 7.5% fall in May 2023. The #unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. The unemployment rate for people in cities was 5.2% in June. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) places the number of people who are engaging in some form of social labor in return for remuneration or income who are over the age of 16, or the total size of the workforce, at around 733.5 million, dropping from 746.5 million in 2021.

[Winehole23]

Demographic collapse sure could China up, but will do slowly. Declining population won't be peculiar to China, though.

[Ef-man]

https://twitter.com/Beefeater_Fella/...71114322161666

It is the worlds biggest manufacturer, the economy is entirely dependent on its exports. The global supply chain is moving out of China, as evidence with major manufacturers such as Foxconn closing down their vast #manufacturing sites across China. June 2023 results show exports fell by 12.2%, the biggest fall in 3 years since the outbreak of Covid-19 and the pace of exits from China is speeding up. This follows a 7.5% fall in May 2023. The #unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. The unemployment rate for people in cities was 5.2% in June. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) places the number of people who are engaging in some form of social labor in return for remuneration or income who are over the age of 16, or the total size of the workforce, at around 733.5 million, dropping from 746.5 million in 2021.

Damn, with so many young unemployed, China may see war with Taiwan as a good thing.

[RandomGuy]

Damn, with so many young unemployed, China may see war with Taiwan as a good thing.

Possible, but I doubt they will have the bandwidth for this.

It looks like China is on the brink of a real catastrophic debt crisis.

[pgardn]

Imo we dont need them to have big economic problems.
Although it has forced their hand in the budy up attempt with Russia making the switch to a war economy and destroying themselves under Pukin.

[RandomGuy]

Imo we dont need them to have big economic problems.
Although it has forced their hand in the budy up attempt with Russia making the switch to a war economy and destroying themselves under Pukin.

The shrinkage is accelerating. The last half of the year is going to be brutal.

The shadow credit market is likely taking a hit, and their banks likely have a LOT of off balance sheet risks that are going to come to a head.

This will be made worse by the fact that no one will want to bring bad news to Xi.

Having a culture of lies has a cost, i.e. an inability to respond to a crisis.

[RandomGuy]

It is getting worse.

[diego]

As an ex-resident, I'll admit to a certain level of bias

That said at thinking china has some kind of unique demographic problem (Like all other first world countries that have this problem).

On the contrary, that is solid evidence they made the giant leap mao planned, even if it Deng Xiaoping actually took it, in a way quite contrary to what mao actually planned. China depends on US sales like everyone else does, including the US, you ers account for half of global consumption, more if you remove basic needs.

Bottom line is the chinese played the game better than anyone else. They sold cheap labor for know-how, and multinational corporations lined up equipping and training china to become the world's manufacturing center. China coupled that with education and long term planning, a recession hurts china but it also hurts everyone else.. I don't care for the authoritarianism (even when I don't find it to be more than the wests) but the long term planning is something I can only wish would reach capitalist societies like my own and yours...

[RandomGuy]

Demographic collapse sure could China up, but will do slowly. Declining population won't be peculiar to China, though.

It will not, but it is hitting China very very hard, and is worse than many know.

It will be made worse by a lack of a social safety net, which means when people lose jobs they quit consuming.

They will lose jobs because the US is reshoring and relocating its supply chain out of China.

The negative feedback cycle is well underway. A debt crisis, a real estate crisis and a demographic collapse.

[RandomGuy]

As an ex-resident, I'll admit to a certain level of bias

That said at thinking china has some kind of unique demographic problem (Like all other first world countries that have this problem).

On the contrary, that is solid evidence they made the giant leap mao planned, even if it Deng Xiaoping actually took it, in a way quite contrary to what mao actually planned. China depends on US sales like everyone else does, including the US, you ers account for half of global consumption, more if you remove basic needs.

Bottom line is the chinese played the game better than anyone else. They sold cheap labor for know-how, and multinational corporations lined up equipping and training china to become the world's manufacturing center. China coupled that with education and long term planning, a recession hurts china but it also hurts everyone else.. I don't care for the authoritarianism (even when I don't find it to be more than the wests) but the long term planning is something I can only wish would reach capitalist societies like my own and yours...

The thing is that authoritarianism makes them absolutely incapable of reacting to problems. No one wants to admit a problem is there, they don't tell the dictator bad news, and local officials only concern is not sending bad news up the chain.

[RandomGuy]

Demographic collapse sure could China up, but will do slowly. Declining population won't be peculiar to China, though.

The demographic collapse started years ago.

It is manifesting itself now, and China's collapse will be worse than just about any other country.

They now have deflation.

[RandomGuy]

Demographic collapse sure could China up, but will do slowly. Declining population won't be peculiar to China, though.

what will be peculiar to china is the fact that a chinese economist estimates they have enough empty apartment housing to house their entire population two times over.

1.2 billion times two. That is the EXTRA, and empty.

The coming devaluation will be a tsunami of debt defaults and impoverishment of epic proportions.

[Winehole23]

what will be peculiar to china is the fact that a chinese economist estimates they have enough empty apartment housing to house their entire population two times over.

1.2 billion times two. That is the EXTRA, and empty.

The coming devaluation will be a tsunami of debt defaults and impoverishment of epic proportions.

Perhaps China could muddle their way through, like Japan, or us.

But you could be right...12 years after your prediction of incipient doom

[Winehole23]

To be fair, timing the market is hard. It can stay irrational way longer than individual investors can stay solvent, especially with a giant industrial state -- or central banks -- propping it up.

[Thread]

To be fair, timing the market is hard. It can stay irrational way longer than individual investors can stay solvent, especially with a giant industrial state -- or central banks -- propping it up.

Here's the surefire cure...FDIC

[RandomGuy]

To be fair, timing the market is hard. It can stay irrational way longer than individual investors can stay solvent, especially with a giant industrial state -- or central banks -- propping it up.

It is a pyramid scheme that is collapsing. There isn't any timing to it, it is happening right now.

It is too big for even China's industrial state to fix. They can export, but exports are way down as western companies relocate their supply chains to someplace more reliable.

The bubble is bursting at the same time their ability to deal with it goes down due to this drop.

It is going to be bad, bad, bad.

[RandomGuy]

Perhaps China could muddle their way through, like Japan, or us.

But you could be right...12 years after your prediction of incipient doom

eyup. I based my prediction then on the ghost cities I saw, i.e. speculative investments that never panned out.

At the time, they still had a lot of people moving to the cities, and that propped up the system. I wondered at how long they could continue to build those ghost cities. Turns out that was about 11 years.

They have spent the last 11 years making their bubble bigger.

2 billion empty apartments, WH. TWO BILLION EMPTY APARTMENTS.

The US bubble was created by a 5%-10% overcapacity. This bubble is close to 200% in a population four times larger.

[FrostKing]

It is a pyramid scheme that is collapsing. There isn't any timing to it, it is happening right now.

It is too big for even China's industrial state to fix. They can export, but exports are way down as western companies relocate their supply chains to someplace more reliable.

The bubble is bursting at the same time their ability to deal with it goes down due to this drop.

It is going to be bad, bad, bad.

I see it this way

China wasted their opening to shake & shape the World [would be bad for us] but in classic Chinese style they ingrained long term relationships

China might never fight a H2H war with the main players. Remember USSR handled Japan early in WW2. Asians take pride in manipulating us.

[RandomGuy]

After all, the value of China’s housing market is four times the country’s GDP, compared to 1.6 in the US and 2.1 in Japan. Accounting for more than one-quarter of all economic activity and two-thirds of household wealth

https://www.project-syndicate.org/on...fuxian-2023-09

[FrostKing]

> Ukraine

China benefited financially but their sphere of influence shrunk to 3rd World nations.

I think their master plan is to finally be the USA/USSR. That's their goal. Take maybe 500+ years. Kings of Amazon. The new American Jeans.

[FrostKing]

"Kids in London learning Mandarin"

That's their goal. Culture not military.