Statistically Speaking: Does Clutch Three-Point Shooting Ability Exist?

[timvp]

: This person only adds to the discussion to talk about his love for Bonner; and now he is a statistician with knowledge in data mining and analysis when Bonners clutch is questioned!

Oh damn, looks like I got trolled.

Ah well

[Bruno]

For people interested in this whole clutch thing, I've just read a nice statistical study on the subject:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com...12_updated.pdf

[Drom John]

Hmm, the Goldman/Rao piece on free throws and offensive rebounds identifies a statistical "home choke", with road teams being flat.
The best, Ginobili! with Horry in the running.

A better study should include home games. Then you could make home/away as a factor.
Otherwise it implies that road games are more important than home games.
More significant clutch parsings than H/A, would be tighter scores, and less time.

[silverblk mystix]

D Fisher is clutch...

against the Spurs for sure...

[Russ]

Statistician here.

Your analysis is nothing more than counting buckets, then pointing to the bad performers and saying "not clutch!" and pointing to the people who had a good count and saying "clutch!"

Well, duhhhhhhhhhh.

Of course you're going to find "evidence" of clutchness if you use that method. Half will be clutch, half won't.

Actually, not. That would assume that half the shooters exceed their seasonal three point % norm in clutch situations and half do not. That would (arguably) imply some randomness (and insignificance) to the clutchness stat.

But, on balance, three point % declines by about 10% in clutch situations. So, Mr. Statistician, your "base line" is flawed.

Some pretty interesting numbers...

Clutch Three-Point Shooting
2011: 829-2585 (32.07%)
2010: 832-2556 (32.55%)
2009: 933-2824 (33.04%)
2009: 813-2451 (33.17%)

Other Three-Point Shooting
2011: 15057-41728 (36.08%)
2010: 14990-42066 (35.63%)
2009: 15419-41759 (36.92%)
2008: 15311-42093 (36.37%)

Effect of Clutch Situation on Normal Accuracy
2011: -11%
2010: -9%
2009: -10%
2008: -9%

That is a shockingly consistent negative effect, tbh

So, to summarize, Mr. Statistician, you need to read "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman and come back when you're more prepared.

[jag]

For people interested in this whole clutch thing, I've just read a nice statistical study on the subject:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com...12_updated.pdf

Interesting study. Thanks for the link.

[superbigtime]

I can't believe Finley is so low. Seems like he knocked alot of critical 3s for the Spurs during his tenure. Nice breakdown.

[timvp]

For people interested in this whole clutch thing, I've just read a nice statistical study on the subject:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com...12_updated.pdf

Awesome read. It basically proves that being at home makes free throw shooters choke but being at home also improves performance at least in terms of offensive rebounding.

The best part of the piece:

Interestingly we note that Robert Horry, who’s nickname is "Big Shot Bob," shows up as sufficiently clutch, and the Spurs’ crunch-time hero, Manu Ginobili, is the only player in our sample who is indisputably "clutch"

Obviously this research far exceeded the depth of my experiment, but it's kinda cool that Horry and Ginobili shined in both cases.

[Russ]

Obviously this research far exceeded the depth of my experiment, but it's kinda cool that Horry and Ginobili shined in both cases.

So intuition meets fact.

What a shock.

How did Matt fare in the study? (Rhetorical, no answer neccessary.)

[timvp]

How did Matt fare in the study? (Rhetorical, no answer neccessary.)

No answer available but I'm assuming his sample size is incredibly small. The only "clutch" free throws of his I can remember off the top of my head happened on the road . . .






Speaking of chokers, this study showed Michael Finley as the tenth biggest choker in the entire NBA from 2005-2010 (the years studied, which also happen to include his entire Spurs career).

So in summary, my method resulted in Ginobili and Horry being one and two over the time span, plus Finley being last. This research paper resulted in Ginobili and Horry at the top and Finley at the bottom.

I thinks we done got ourselves a pattern . . .

[Libri]

The results:




*Percent improvement in the clutch when compared to all other three-pointers attempted while with the Spurs



-Stephen Jackson and Manu Ginobili are definitely a pair of clutch shooters. Great to see that duo near the top.