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It's fun to think about more expensive free agents, but if the Spurs bring back Splitter and Manu we're probably looking at the MLE as the largest salary slot that the Spurs will be able to offer.
Apologies for longish post, trying to combine salary with FA with trade options.
Pasting in New link for ESPN Free Agents 2013/2014(Adjusted for players on New Teams)
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/85...ents-2013-2014
Looking at our Roster and Assuming Mills and Diaw stay, We have
TD/Splitter/Baynes
Diaw/Bonner?(Amnesty/Cut)
Leonard/S-Jax
Green/Manu
Parker/De Colo/Mills/Joseph.
With Splitter, Manu and SJax obvious resign options(Can't imagine last 2 signing elsewhere, Given Manu's career and S Jax's reputation around the league(and his poor play this year). If we pencil those 3 in, the only really obvious hole is at PF/Backup Centre to complete a TD/Tiago/Boris 4 man unit.(And potentially a 3rd developmental wing, though that may be in the draft), and we'd probably have some amount of cap room left, especially if moves are made after SJax/Manu resign but before Tiago does.
Looking for Bigs in the FA list, interesting ones Josh Smith, Marreese Speights, Elton Brand, Carl Landry, David West, Dwight(Not Happening, but still), Sam Dalembert, Nik Pekovic, Kirilenko, Bynum(though I wouldn't touch given injury worry), JJ Hickson, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson.
Removing Dwight, Bynum, Pek, West and Al Jefferson based on money(Based on reasonable ish thoughts of Tiago at Cap hold and Manu and Jack at combined 8m a year. More guys gone at higher numbers.) Leaves:
Marreese Speights, Elton Brand, Carl Landry, David West, Sam Dalembert, Kirilenko, JJ Hickson, Paul Millsap.
In Addition to the Players who are potential/Likely Amnesty Cuts as well as players on mid sized deals who could be trade targets to absorb into cap room. Your Derrick Williams, Amir Johnson types).
Marreese Speights
Elton Brand,
Carl Landry,
David West,
Sam Dalembert,
Kirilenko,
JJ Hickson,
Paul Millsap.
Is there any way we could get a ordered/tiered ranking of these players based on think tank opinion, Take out players who don't fit or will get paid more somewhere else(Definitely a possibility, I think Millsap should get more than we can give) and get down to a short list of likely options for that 3rd/4th big slot.
It's fun to think about more expensive free agents, but if the Spurs bring back Splitter and Manu we're probably looking at the MLE as the largest salary slot that the Spurs will be able to offer.
Yeah going by Bruno's salary cap math a 8m Manu/Jax + cap hold Tiago would give us around 6. West seems to make sense staying with Indiana(I really just left him on to stop any "What about David West?" Comments.) It is possible they'll sign for less and we'll have 10m in cap room, so the remaining guys are at least semi realistic options. Obviously most won't sign here, just trying to get a list of >0.1% options who are good players.
Last edited by jesterbobman; 02-27-2013 at 12:24 AM.
I understand. I'd say Brand and Landry are good MLE targets. West, Hickson, Millsap, and Kirilenko will be too expensive. Dalembert isn't good enough to pay the MLE. Speights may be priced right at the MLE, but I don't like his BBIQ or his motor. I'd rather have Brand or Landry.
Brand would be a good addition as backup PF/C. Landry, I think will be retained by Golden State for whom he is a vital cog. Brand OTOH is liked by and likes Popovich and is also friendly with Duncan IIRC.
The key to cap space is how much money Manu will ask. $6M per year? $8M per year? $10M per year?
If Manu is fine with $6M per year, Spurs could have almost $11M in cap space (with Diaw and Mills opting in). With that kind of money, you could go after high level free agents like Millsap or Al Jefferson.
And after having used the cap space, Spurs would have the room exception to sign another player like a backup SF.
Manu could possibly go for $6M a year provided he gets a 3 year (3rd year partially guaranteed option). And that is par course for the amount of time he plays even as he will be the Spurs SG lynchpin.
I really don't know what kind of contract Manu will get this summer. He is still very good but he will be 36 years old and injury prone.
The market for Manu should also be very small. Contenders will be the teams the most interested in him but they won't have cap space so their max offer will be $16.1M/3 years for the teams bellow the apron. Only 3 teams currently above .500 will have realistically cap space this summer (Houston, Utah and Atlanta). They are young and not so good so Manu won't necessarily makes a lot of sense for them.
Add to that Manu clearly saying before the season that he won't sign with another team and it won't be the typical scenario where a new contract is defined by the free agent market.
I am with you on this Mel. I always thought Landry would flourish in a better system like ours. He has always been a good player in my opinion. He was putting very good numbers (and starting over Scola) in Houston before he was traded for Kevin Martin and now he is one of the best "off the bench" BIGs in the NBA in GS.
Brand is a typical SA target. Vet that knows how to play the game and SA gets him in the end of his career, much like Dice, Thomas, etc.
West and Millsap are better but they will make 10m/year at least.
And now that SA has cap space we can't rule out the idea of claiming a player from amnesty as Bruno said. Boozer would definitely be a decent name.
What are you using as your estimated 2013-14 salary cap figure?
The cap figure and Manus contract will be the factors which decide whether we can bring in a decent free agent.
I'd happily throw $6-8m at Brand for 3 years.
Mini mid-level - minimum targets: Harris, Brand, C. Brewer, Augustin, Billups, Clark, D. Wright, W. Johnson, Carroll, Webster.
If I had to guess, Harris, Brand and D. Wright, are probably the most likely candidates.
Harris is the one most will probably scoff at. But I wouldn't be shocked if they look at him (and Augustin) the way they did Ford a few off seasons back: Former starter, still relatively young, value has plummeted to the point where he can most likely be had on an inexpensive one year deal and has something to prove.
Wes Johnson for the room exception would be a steal. He's obviously talented, and it seems like he's never really had stable coaching during his career. It'd be nice to see him back up Leonard for a couple of years and giving the Spurs some more options for the summer of 2015, when the Big Three era will almost certainly be over and Green, Leonard and Joseph are slated to be free agents.
Is this the Landry in Golden State? If so, it looks like he's signed (with a player option) for next season. I don't see why he'd opt out if he was only going to get another MLE deal. This is especially true if the Spurs try to bring over someone like Hanga, as that would probably cut into the MLE.
I like Wes as well Chino
Obviously he was not a good enough to be the 4th pick overall, but I think he can be a solid SF going forward.
He came old to the league and he was supposedly to be ready. Problem is that Minny tried to play him as a SG and his lack of ball-handling and dribble skills kill him as a SG prospect. He can't be a SG and will never be a SG. It killed his confidence in Minny.
I think Minny should have tried to develop him into a defender/3-pointer specialist. No doubt in my mind he can be this type of player. He is athletic, he has great size for a SF and great work-ethic.
I would not mind him for cheap at all, even though there will be some nice backup SFs out there after this season. I don't think SA will have a problem to find a backup SF if Jack asks too much. The room exception is absolutely the most SA should spend to get a backup SF. It doesn't make any sense to spend more to get a backup for Leonard.
It's him. I think he would opt out Chino. He has 4m PO. I don't think he would refuse a full MLE deal. He is not really young and he won't make much more than that. Maybe a Bass-type of contract.
If SA brings Hanga, I don't think he would get more than what Nando got. They could use the room exception on him.
Unless he has some kind of amazing end of the season, Hanga won't get more than a minimum salary. And IMO, Spurs won't even be interested in signing him for the min. Hanga has shown nothing in Europe.
I was thinking of it in terms of years, not dollar amount.
Provided the Spurs never go under the cap, the longest min contract they can offer is two years. If they want to offer more (and they might if they like Hanga but think he is a project who could take a few years to develop), they'd have to use part of the MLE. Just like the last couple of years, the Spurs may not want to offer the full MLE in hopes of signing someone to a longer deal.
I also don't understand the idea that Landry is definitely more than a $4 Million player (meaning he would opt out), but not more than a $5 Million player (where the MLE would get him). He's in the same situation as Diaw and Mayo: They'll either play well enough that they're not as affordable as they were before, or they play poorly enough that they opt in even though they aren't worth their contracts. I can definitely understand your reasoning of why it would make sense for Landry to opt out (not just for the extra million next year, but for the long-term security), but I think he only opts out if he prices himself out of MLE range. He could always make a tactical mistake and opt out when he shouldn't've, though.
And just so we're all clear, the Spurs will not have both the MLE and the room exception this year. They'll have one or the other.
I got what you said Chino, but as Bruno said, there's no reason to believe that Hanga would get more than a min contract. If he comes, he will probably get a Baynes type of contract. As for the SAS cap, if the cap figure is around 62m as Bruno stated, SA will have cap space even after re-signing Splitter and Manu. They won't use the MLE.
As for Landry, it's not only more money and but long-term security. He played well this season, but I don't think there's a market for him as a starting PF, unless he plays for a really bad team. Mayo's situation is a bit different because people were wondering if he was in a bad situation in Memphis and could flourish in a better environment. Mayo is younger and he got the starting job from day 1, unlike Landry, who will be a bench player as long as he stays in GS because Lee will always start.
I can see Landry getting more than the MLE, but not much more than that. Let's say he gets a Bass/Glenn Davis-type of offer (around 6m/year). Do you really see him turning it down?Landry turns 30 y/o this year. I don't see it.
In my opinion, if he receives a long-term offer (MLE as the floor), he takes it and opts out.
elemento (when did you get bolded, by the way?) It doesn't work that way, though. Landry can't wait to see his market before opting out. He has to trust his agent's advice on the matter. No teams can negotiate a contract that requires a player to opt-out to get it, it'd be considered tampering. That's even supposed to apply to teams re-signing their own free agents after they opt out (like the Spurs did with Jefferson), but that's a lot harder to enforce.
I agree on everyone's opinions on Hanga, but I was just saying that the Spurs may want to give Hanga a three- or four-year minimum deal so that they have the time to see if he can develop. To do that, they'd need to either have cap space for him use part of the MLE. Besides guaranteeing him that first year, there's no downside to such a deal for the Spurs. It would be a bad deal for Hanga, though, as he'd have to risk playing under market value if he ends up succeeding but still risks getting cut if he fails. Baynes didn't have to accept such a deal from the Spurs (although it was originally reported that he had), because he had the leverage of a productive career in Europe. Hanga, at best, has about the same leverage as Neal did when he signed his deal a couple of years ago.
Also, the Spurs will only have cap space next season if they want it. They won't start the off-season with it, as they'll have several large cap holds. They can technically re-sign Manu, Jack and Splitter for reasonable deals and still be over the cap with Horry's hold and the MLE factored in. They can always release the holds and go under the cap if they want to, but once they do, they will be unable to go back over and use anything more than the room exception.
Staying over the cap could work in their favor. For example, let's say that Atlanta offers Splitter $11 Million in free agency (not likely, but possible), and the Spurs decide to let him go and replace him with Josh Smith. Two things could happen here:
1) The Spurs could relinquish their cap holds, giving them about $24 Million (assuming they keep their pick). They then sign Smith at, let's say, $14 Million. They then re-sign Manu for $7 Million. That only leaves $5.5 Million between cap space and the room exception (which can't be combined, mind you) to sign free agents, Jack or Neal.
2)The Spurs could do a sign-and-trade with the Hawks for Smith at something like $14 Million. The Spurs would have only $52 Million dollars in salary committed for the year, but would still be "over the cap." They could then re-sign Manu and Jack (and Neal or Blair) for whatever they want and still have the full MLE to use (or the tax-payer's MLE). They could do S&T's with the other free agents and get even more players, but that would put them really close to the tax.
There are definitely mixed strategies that the Spurs could use, but I'm just trying to say that smart teams won't just make as much cap space as they can unless they have a good plan for it.
A couple of days ago I think(appreciate it btw)
I know that Landry can't wait to choose his PO, but we all know that his agent will "talk" to a lot of FOs in order to gather info about his client. In 's case, there's no way him that he would opt out a 15m contract without a guarantee that he would get a long-term one. Even if we assume that Landry's agent doesn't do it, we can tell that Landry is easily an MLE player at least.
I agree with you that there's no downside to give a 3/4 year deal to Hanga, especially considering that it won't be necessarily fully guaranteed. I think the FO only does it when they feel he is ready to contribute though. I don't think SA gambles on Hanga (even if it's a min contract) if they think he is not ready.
As for the cap, there are too many different scenarios, I agree with you. The case I used (re-signing Manu and Tiago, then using the remaining cap) is the most probable move, that's why I used it.
I understand that your scenario could happen ( no to Smith at 14m/year btw), even though we can all agree that it's less likely to happen.
The downside to giving Hanga a deal is that a) it's a roster slot gone and b) Is he good enough to get time and develop with the Spurs (or the Toros), vs. playing in Spain (>> D League, < NBA).
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