General 2013 Free Agency Discussion

[Richie]

Also Bruno, my maths is different to yours. Assuming Mills and Diaw re sign, we have 37.9 committed to 8 players + Bonner. I'm assuming Bonner doesn't take a roster spot. Tiago's cap hold takes spot #9 and we re-sign Manu for spot #10. We then have two cap holds for #11 and #12 of 490k each.

That leaves us with around $15.5m in cap space (before Manu signs), assuming a $62m cap. When signing a free agent, are you able to include the cap hold on that spot in the maximum you can give them? That would account for the ~$500k difference between us.

[Bruno]

Also Bruno, my maths is different to yours. Assuming Mills and Diaw re sign, we have 37.9 committed to 8 players + Bonner. I'm assuming Bonner doesn't take a roster spot. Tiago's cap hold takes spot #9 and we re-sign Manu for spot #10. We then have two cap holds for #11 and #12 of 490k each.

That leaves us with around $15.5m in cap space (before Manu signs), assuming a $62m cap. When signing a free agent, are you able to include the cap hold on that spot in the maximum you can give them? That would account for the ~$500k difference between us.

I'm using these numbers:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=202685

Spurs team salary in the 2013 summer:
Tony Parker: $12,500,000
Tim Duncan: $10,361,446
Boris Diaw: $4,702,500
Danny Green: $3,762,500
Nando De Colo: $1,463,000
Kawhi Leonard: $1,887,840
Patrick Mills: $1,133,950
Cory Joseph: $1,120,920
Aron Baynes: $788,872
Roster cap hold: $490,180
Roster cap hold: $490,180
Roster cap hold: $490,180

Total: $39,191,568

In this scenario and with a $62M salary cap, Spurs will have $22.8M in cap space next summer.

$22.8M - $7.5M (Splitter cap hold) + $1M (2 roster cap hold remove) => $16.3M

[Richie]

I'm using these numbers:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=202685


$22.8M - $7.5M (Splitter cap hold) + $1M (2 roster cap hold remove) => $16.3M

Ah I see. I was including Bonners salary, you're assuming he is amnestied. I'm not sure which is more likely tbh, the extra $1m saved could be worth it in free agency.

[ABC]

Anyone think the Spurs will try to get Josh Smith or Howard and let Splitter walk?

[Richie]

Anyone think the Spurs will try to get Josh Smith or Howard and let Splitter walk?

While it's possible, I think the Spurs is known as an organisation that shows loyalty to players. If we ask Splitter to hold off on signing with somebody as a restricted free agent for us to make a move, I hope we don't then screw him over and go for Smith or Howard.

If Splitter decides he doesn't want to give us the freedom to sign a free agent and signs a big deal as an RFA early in the summer, I hope we explore the likes of Smith and Howard as options in the days we have to decide about matching.

In all likelihood though, we'll bring back Splitter regardless. I doubt Howard or Smith would come to SA, and the gamble of letting Splitter leave would be too high

[CGD]

^
Dont think Spurs swing for Howard/Smith (or any other big) this summer, though, I personally am an Al Jefferson fan. The only position I can see them throwing money at is SG/SF as they deal with replacing Manu into the furture. Someone like Tyrke Evans comes to mind.

But unless Manu retires or it becomes painfully apparent that he can't sustainably help in a long playoff run, the only openings on the roster are at back-up SF and one PF/C position. You have to think one of those is addressed with the first rounder, possibly the latter. It is unclear to me whether Hanga, who Pop said should be able to come this summer, can play at the SF.

[Richie]

^
Dont think Spurs swing for Howard/Smith (or any other big) this summer, though, I personally am an Al Jefferson fan. The only position I can see them throwing money at is SG/SF as they deal with replacing Manu into the furture. Someone like Tyrke Evans comes to mind.

But unless Manu retires or it becomes painfully apparent that he can't sustainably help in a long playoff run, the only openings on the roster are at back-up SF and one PF/C position. You have to think one of those is addressed with the first rounder, possibly the latter. It is unclear to me whether Hanga, who Pop said should be able to come this summer, can play at the SF.

Possibly, but with such a late pick (looking like #29) I wouldn't be surprised to see a draft and stash player taken.

Following on, even if one of those positions is taken in the draft there it is unlikely they will be in the rotation right away. I think it's more likely that whoever is picked spends a year with the Toros ala Joseph than getting minutes outside of garbage time. It is of course possible though.

I have thought for a while that a PF/C is vital for us. A rookie is very unlikely to cut it IMO, we need someone who can come in and take minutes from Duncan from day 1. Im a big West fan, and someone like him, Jefferson, Millsap etc... would allow us to reduce Duncans minutes by 3 or 4 per game and sit him on b2bs.

Signing a decent free agent would also give us more flexibility going forwards after Duncan retires, either an extra asset to trade if we blow it up or another solid piece to try and contend in the post-Duncan era. A player like Millsap would fill both of these roles perfectly.

[Pop]

I like the Tyreke Evans idea and I talked a lot about him in the trade ideas thread.

Imo Baynes will be a very good backup for Tim next year and could be even this year but that's just my opinion so if they keep Splitter, I'd pay a guard, Green is incredibly limited, Manu is slowing down, I'd pay Evans to have a three guard rotation of TP-Evans-Manu.

But if we pay a guard we may have to trade Green.

[Bruno]

I like the Tyreke Evans idea and I talked a lot about him in the trade ideas thread.

Imo Baynes will be a very good backup for Tim next year and could be even this year but that's just my opinion so if they keep Splitter, I'd pay a guard, Green is incredibly limited, Manu is slowing down, I'd pay Evans to have a three guard rotation of TP-Evans-Manu.

But if we pay a guard we may have to trade Green.

My feeling is that Spurs priority should be to get a bigman with their cap space.

Saying that, playoffs will tell a lot on what Spurs should do this summer. Before them, it's hard to know what Spurs summer's plan should be. A guard could be the priority if Manu struggled and Green choked like he did against OKC last season. It could be unnecessary if Manu raise his level for the playoffs and Green remains solid.

For the guards spots, you also had to wonder what kind of role do you want to give to Joseph and De Colo next season. They should be theoretically better than this year but do you want to have them in the rotation?

[CGD]

^
I suppose it all turns on the Manu situation, and trusting in the development of Leonard as the Spurs look into the fast-arriving future (2 years from now). Leonard hasn't convinced me yet that he can be the primary option down the stretch, though, his lack of touches has something to do with that. I hope I'm wrong, but I dont see any of CJ, Nando, Mills, or Hanga being that either. Evan's is interesting bc his star has fallen a bit, and could be primed for rebound. I'm sure there are other options too, and who knows what will happen in the draft.

Conventional wisdom says that if you are going to spend money then spend on a big. It would be pretty awesome to get someone that is not only willing to accept a bench role, but that will be there will into the post-Duncan era. This is why I favor Al Jefferson. He has the demeanor, and personality to accept that role. Howard/Smith are unrealistic, West will stay with the Pacers, and Milsap seems redundant with what is on the roster already.

The possibilities with cap space are exciting. Not sure what the compe ive landscape will be this summer, but I have to think the Spurs are in one of the better cap space situations.

[Bruno]

^
I suppose it all turns on the Manu situation, and trusting in the development of Leonard as the Spurs look into the fast-arriving future (2 years from now). Leonard hasn't convinced me yet that he can be the primary option down the stretch, though, his lack of touches has something to do with that. I

It would kinda weird to start worrying about the post Parker era this summer while he will be 31 years old and is currently playing his best basketball ever.

I don't really see Tyreke Evans being a good fit with the current Spurs team. There will have a serious lack of spacing if you pair him with Parker and Leonard.

[Martin R]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE__cSLNYes

It looks like he plays like somebody I know....

[Pop]

After a game like tonight it's a tough call, Asik outrebounded Tim and Splitter combined and our SG rotation looked even worse.

[TD 21]

Thinking about this some more, you don't diligently plan and work towards significant cap space for years and then go into free agency with the intention of just adding a few 7th-9th men (particularly as a team with legit championship aspirations) and calling it a day. I've got to believe they're thinking bigger than that.

With that in mind, using Bruno's estimated cap for next season of approximately $62M and making the following presumptions: Ginobili re-signs for $7M, Splitter re-signs for $9M, they devote the room exception ($2.5M) to a backup SF, Bonner is disposed of in some fashion without salary coming back, Blair and Neal are gone, Diaw and Mills opt in and they utilize the 1st (just over $1M) on a player who'll play for them immediately, that would leave them with between $10-11M in cap space.

Backup PG and SF are current holes, but given the starter's at those positions, it's safe to say they'd be looking for a starting PF. There's three candidates who are going to make that much or more: Smith, who's going to be out of their price range, West, who's likely going to re-sign and then there's Millsap, who I see as their number one target.

I don't think they were ever entirely comfortable making Splitter the starting PF and that they did so by default. Ideally, I think they'd like to make him the third big until Duncan retires. It might sound steep for $9M, but Gibson and Anderson make close to that and play the same role.

[Richie]

TD 21, I'm pretty sure with your hypothetical situation (and $62m cap) we would have $16.2m to split between Manu and a free agent. If Manu eats up $7m, I don't think we could have Millsap for $9m. If the cap stays the same, that could be as little as $7m for a free agent which won't get us anybody significant.

The Manu contract really makes or breaks us. Anything over the MLE and I think we will struggle to attract a decent free agent.

[Chinook]

Don't forget that there is a period where players can teams can agree to a deal without anything being signed. So the Spurs will have time to work out a deal with a free agent before anyone can even give Splitter an offer sheet to sign. If the Spurs plan to make a big free-agent splash, they will probably be able to do what while Splitter only counts for $7.5 Million in cap space.

[szkorhetz]

What about Corey Brewer as the backup SF? He is long, athletic, amazing defender, can knock down the occasional three pointer. I love him and I think he would fit in the system.

[TD 21]

TD 21, I'm pretty sure with your hypothetical situation (and $62m cap) we would have $16.2m to split between Manu and a free agent. If Manu eats up $7m, I don't think we could have Millsap for $9m. If the cap stays the same, that could be as little as $7m for a free agent which won't get us anybody significant.

The Manu contract really makes or breaks us. Anything over the MLE and I think we will struggle to attract a decent free agent.

I don't know where you got $16.2M from.

Upon further review, my math was slightly off in two cases, though by miniscule amounts. The room exception is $2.652, not $2.5M and Baynes makes about 5K more than I'd remembered. So they'll probably end up with closer to $10M than $11M in cap space. Still, that should put them squarely in the Millsap sweepstakes.

I had previously said that they could match any offer Splitter receives and avoid the tax and that's true, but if their plan is to sign Millsap, then the exact amount Splitter get's becomes far more important. With Ginobili, I think they'll do with him what they did with Duncan. Discuss parameters (a range and a number he won't get less than), but try to get done what they want to get done outside of him, then give him what's leftover.

Chinook, where did you get $7.5M from?

[Mel_13]

Chinook, where did you get $7.5M from?

That's his cap hold. Until the moment he signs a new contract, that's the amount he counts against the cap. The Spurs can sign a free agent while counting 7.5M as Splitter's number and then subsequently sign him to any number up to the maximum, even if it takes them well over the salary cap. They would still have the room exception in that scenario.

The 16.2M number comes from a post by Bruno somewhere in the Think Tank. He calculated the max cap space in the most favorable scenario. 16.2M was the sum of Manu's salary and available cap space.

[TD 21]

That's his cap hold. Until the moment he signs a new contract, that's the amount he counts against the cap. The Spurs can sign a free agent while counting 7.5M as Splitter's number and then subsequently sign him to any number up to the maximum, even if it takes them well over the salary cap. They would still have the room exception in that scenario.

The 16.2M number comes from a post by Bruno somewhere in the Think Tank. He calculated the max cap space in the most favorable scenario. 16.2M was the sum of Manu's salary and available cap space.

I read that wrong. I thought he meant they'd only have $7.5M in cap space.

By "most favorable scenario", you mean he made every presumption (Mills opting in is admittedly questionable) I made?


Not that the specifics aren't important, but quite honestly, whether the number is $9M, $10M, whatever, if they want him and think they can get him at a certain number, they're not letting a relatively small amount stand in the way. There's numerous ways to shave an extra million here or there.

[Chinook]

By "most favorable scenario", you mean he made every presumption (Mills opting in is admittedly questionable) I made?

Sort of. He also assumed Bonner would count for $1 Million (EDIT: He didn't actually say that; he said they'd amnesty him.) and that the Spurs would NOT have to pay a salary for a first-rounder. That may make up the difference

Again, though, if you had assumed Splitter would count for $9.5 Million in your calculations, you have an extra $2 Million to work with now.

EDIT: Interestingly enough, he didn't seem to account for the fact that the roster charges would go away as players were added. Meaning that the Spurs would have $22.8 Million counting three roster charges, but as they added players, they'd actually be able to spend about $24.3 Million, so long as that money were spread among at least three players. If it were only spread between two, then the Spurs would have about $23.8 Million to spend, and if it were possible for it to be spent on a single player, then they would have about $23.3 Million to spend. Otherwise, one would be counting the roster charges twice. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, Bruno.

[Chinook]

This is actually what Bruno said in the salary thread:

How much cap space Spurs could had in the 2013 summer:
It's early to answer at that question but let's give it a try.
Let's make first some assumptions:
- The salary cap is $62M.
- Spurs use the amnesty rule on Bonner.
- Diaw and Mills decides to pick their option and stay.
- Spurs either use their first round pick on a draft and stash player or trade him away.

Spurs team salary in the 2013 summer:
Tony Parker: $12,500,000
Tim Duncan: $10,361,446
Boris Diaw: $4,702,500
Danny Green: $3,762,500
Nando De Colo: $1,463,000
Kawhi Leonard: $1,887,840
Patrick Mills: $1,133,950
Cory Joseph: $1,120,920
Aron Baynes: $788,872
Roster cap hold: $490,180
Roster cap hold: $490,180
Roster cap hold: $490,180

Total: $39,191,568

In this scenario and with a $62M salary cap, Spurs will have $22.8M in cap space next summer. Diaw opting out will create an additional $4.2M in cap space and mills opting out another $0.6M.

You take away Splitter's 7.5 and Neal's 1.1 (and add back the 490k from the cap holds), and you get about $15.7 to spend between Ginobili and a free agent. I'm sure my numbers are off a little, but that's what I got from doing rough calculations.

Note, though, that this is just the amount the Spurs have to pay this season. With increases, they can offer up to $16.7 Million a year on four-year deals. Functionally, a two-deal, $13 Million deal for Ginobili would take up $6.37 Million next season, leaving the Spurs with enough money a $39.9/4 deal. By not extending a qualifying offer to Neal (but keeping his cap hold), the Spurs can sign a player to a $41.14/4 deal (combining to be $16.8 Million per season for both deals).

So taking increases into consideration allows the Spurs to fit a little more under the cap that they would by just looking at average salaries.

EDIT: I added some stuff now that I had a little time. Obviously, all of these numbers can be off due to me making false assumptions. However, the idea behind the numbers should be correct. If $16.2M is the correct amount, then the Spurs could offer $17.3 Million per season on four-year deals.

[Bruno]

Yeah, Spurs will have about $16M to split.

At the end, it isn't that interesting to look at number within a few $100K because there is a huge uncertainty about what the cap number will be.

The $62M figure is a wild guess and it could be very well be $60M or $65M. Factors like Lakers TV mega deal or the Nets moving to Brooklyn should help to see the BRI significantly increase. Stern even said in November that he was estimating this year revenues to $5B which would result in a salary cap around $70M.

[Richie]

Would a very high cap raise (i.e. $70m) be a blessing or a curse for the Spurs?

[TD 21]

I think we're all in agreement that there's a good chance they'll be able to offer a free agent something in the vicinity of $10M/year.

Teams I could see vying for Millsap . . .

Hawks: If they lose Smith, even though the greater need is at center, he'd work in a three big rotation.

Bobcats: Have the worst group of bigs in the league and could use a high character veteran, who's more than a bit player.

Pistons: Have one of the two best young big tandems in the league to build around, but neither is a floor spacer. Adding him would give them an excellent three big rotation going forward.

Rockets: Between Howard, Bynum and Smith, they've got bigger fish to fry. But should they strikeout on them, they'd figure to have a good shot, given the promising young talent they've got, plus how good a fit he'd be.

Spurs: They'd also figure to have a good shot, since they'd give him by far the best chance at a championship in the short term. He'd give them hands down the best big rotation in the league.

Jazz: Only if they don't re-sign Jefferson, otherwise they'd have the same problem they have now.


Richie, the higher the cap, the better, for the simple fact that it would give them even more financial flexibility. And even at $70M, that still wouldn't open up cap space for any of the glamor teams.