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  1. #51
    above average height mavs>spurs's Avatar
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    Yep. It's the other shoe that hasn't fallen yet tbh. Further complicating the issue is that bankruptcy does nothing to save you from it.
    i'm not sure if this is true or not but i heard somewhere in the media that the student loan bubble is bigger than subprime ever was

  2. #52
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Meh. All the unemployed liberal arts majors will eventually get their inheritances and the loans will be paid in probate..

  3. #53
    above average height mavs>spurs's Avatar
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    Meh. All the unemployed liberal arts majors will eventually get their inheritances and the loans will be paid in probate..
    cofl the panic will start long before then, when the first of them start deferring their loans due to joblessness in mass

  4. #54
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Dallas FED President Richard Fisher on QE3: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...rs_115536.html

  5. #55
    Believe. admiralsnackbar's Avatar
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    cofl the panic will start long before then, when the first of them start deferring their loans due to joblessness in mass
    Phoenix alums (many of them bums given $50 to apply for FAFSA/Pell Grant aid) are already leading the vanguard.

    Hooray free market.

  6. #56
    above average height mavs>spurs's Avatar
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    ^i think manny got his earth science or whatever degree from there rofl

  7. #57
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    are you sure about that, or do you just like to make stuff up?

  8. #58
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    ust recently, in a hearing before the Senate, your senator and my Harvard classmate, Chuck Schumer, told Chairman Bernanke, “You are the only game in town.” I thought the chairman showed admirable restraint in his response. I would have immediately answered, “No, senator, you and your colleagues are the only game in town. For you and your colleagues, Democrat and Republican alike, have en bered our nation with debt, sold our children down the river and sorely failed our nation. Sober up. Get your act together. Illegitimum non carborundum; get on with it. Sacrifice your political ambition for the good of our country—for the good of our children and grandchildren. For unless you do so, all the monetary policy accommodation the Federal Reserve can muster will be for naught.”
    Awesome quote

  9. #59
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    As one would expect, most financial market operators focus their analysis on the financial aspects of so-called "deleveraging". And, no doubt about it, the ans of today's gigantic global leverage speculating community are precisely those players that have most adroitly played the ongoing cycle of global central bank reflationary policymaking. Their astounding financial success provides them a public forum in which to shape both the analytical debate and general viewpoints.

    I tend to believe that conventional thinking - albeit from central bankers, bond and hedge fund kings, or FT and WSJ columnists - is wrong on deleveraging. Deleveraging is not predominantly a financial issue. Economic structure matters - and it matters tremendously. Importantly, true deleveraging requires that system debt loads are reduced to a level supportable by the capacity of an economy to produce real wealth.

    A system can achieve stability and robustness only when a sound economy supports a manageable amount of system financial assets. Yet with a highly unsound economy, ongoing rampant inflation of non-productive debt and highly unstable financial markets, from my framework our system remains very much in a financial leveraging credit bubble cycle.
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_.../NI25Dj01.html

  10. #60
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    “We are unlikely to see much benefit to growth or employment from further asset purchases” Philadelphia FED President Charles Plosser said in a speech today at the district bank in Philadelphia. "Conveying the idea that such action will have a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility. ”
    “I opposed the Committee’s actions in September because I believe that increasing monetary policy accommodation is neither appropriate nor likely to be effective in the current environment,” Plosser said. “Every monetary policy action has costs and benefits, and my assessment is that the potential costs and risks associated with these actions outweigh the potential meager benefits.”
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...n-t-boost-jobs

  11. #61
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The extent to which QE3 drives down new mortgage rates and helps homeowners or is pocketed by banks will be crucial to the success of the policy and the prospects for growth in the U.S. and global economies next year.The rise in profit earned by banks from creating new mortgages came as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sought to defend QE3 against attacks from Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and other critics. Mr Romney said last week the Fed was keeping interest rates “artificially low”.


    Speaking in Indianapolis on Monday, Mr Bernanke said it would be “inappropriate” and “ineffective” for the Fed to raise interest rates to put pressure on Congress to tackle the deficit. QE3 would not lead to long-term inflation, he said, adding that stronger growth would help savers in the long run despite low interest rates today.


    Although the average rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage reached 3.4 percent this week – a record low – mortgage rates could be lower if banks passed on the full drop in their funding costs.


    “For banks which are mortgage originators this [QE3] was some of the best news they could possibly have heard,” said Steven Abrahams, mortgage strategist at Deutsche. “They will continue originating loans and selling them into the market at a significant premium.”


    The interest banks pay on mortgage bonds has dropped from 2.36 percent on September 12, the day before the Fed announced its program, to as low as 1.65 percent last week. It edged up to 1.85 percent on Monday.


    That means the profit, or spread, banks earn from creating new mortgages for homeowners paying around 3.4 percent and selling the loans into the secondary market has risen to around 1.6 percent. That is higher than the 1.44 percent spread they pocketed before QE3 and significantly greater than the 0.5 percent they earned on average in the decade between 2000 and 2010.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49249106

  12. #62
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  13. #63
    selbstverständlich Agloco's Avatar
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    En Ingles for the slow people WH.

    Is QE3 simply more on the fan, or does this have a shot not reversing our fortunes?

    The fact that Bernanke appears to be speaking in tongues quite frequently is troubling to me.

  14. #64
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    the concern seems to be that countercyclical Fed policy is creating more asset bubbles in a time of weak growth. the correlation of a rising market in times of declining profit is ominous. certain asset classes would seem to be divorced from the fundamentals, which will not be mocked forever.

  15. #65
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    pride ever goeth before a fall, etc..

  16. #66
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    unaccompanied as it is by any stimulus to the broader economy -- and indeed, very much accompanied by the spectre of austerity and the reality of deleveraging -- QE3 may face some strong headwinds . . .

  17. #67
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    that's my recap of the Roubini bit, btw . . .

  18. #68
    Veteran
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    Sorry you had to wait for someone else to tell you what to think so you could cut and paste it.

    Here was my off the cuff response on page one as soon as it happened...did you even read the thread?
    you sorry?

    I have more evidence and research for my positions. Yours if basically "I'm bad assed wealthy 1% son of a sucking in health care dollars, all you 99%ers can GFY. AND cut my taxes more!"

  19. #69
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    That sanguine view of the inflation risk posed by the Fed's actions was disputed by Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, who dissented against the policy easing last month and voiced concern about the impact on price stability.

    "The behavior of inflation is fundamentally attributable to the actions of the central bank, while growth and labor market conditions are affected by a wide variety of factors," he told a business conference in Roanoke, Virginia.


    Lacker said that while the Fed had the tools - in theory - that would allow it to shrink the balance sheet and lean against inflation, the exercise had never been conducted in real-life, sounding a note of scepticism over how confident policymakers should be that they can do so when the time comes.


    He also voiced doubt that the U.S. economy was really running so far beneath its so-called trend growth rate, and that there is not much more monetary policy can do at the moment to spur the economy.


    "Simply observing a high unemployment rate does not imply that the Fed's monetary policy is failing to comply with its congressional mandate, nor does it necessarily mean that monetary policy needs to do more to achieve its goals," he said.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89419L20121016

  20. #70
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    "behavior of inflation is fundamentally attributable to the actions of the central bank"

    supply and demand aren't a factor? gasoline price in CA inflated recently due to limited supply from refinery and pipeline problems, and CA's special gasoline not produced by out-of-state refineries.

    The Fed has been pumping out t $Ts and inflation is not rampant. In fact, it's non-factor. Today's SS COLA for 2013 will be lowest in decades.

    ing economists, what a bunch of losers. And they were so accurate and forewarning, and USEFUL!, about the credit/housing bubble.








  21. #71
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    the diversity of views expressed by the Fed is a bit of an historical oddity. before 2008, anyway.

  22. #72
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it plans to keep interest rates ultra-low even after unemployment falls close to a normal level — which it thinks could take three more years. As long as expected inflation remains tame, the Fed said it could keep its key short-term rate near zero even after unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. Unemployment is now 7.7 percent.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...b4e_story.html

  23. #73
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  24. #74
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    seamy underbelly: is 6.5% unemployment the new full employment?

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/cedricmu...d-republicans/

  25. #75
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Minyanville on the specter of inflation:

    http://www.minyanville.com/business-.../2012/id/46664

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