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I don't know why you're being so pissy. You're saying it will never go away and I think it will go away the 2nd half of this decade. Could it go away sooner, sure it could.
I don't know which "it" you are referring to. There are many potential "its" in this thread. More descriptors are needed to clarify which one you had in mind.
It would have been so much easier to merely say what you mean than to duck and deflect again, but I guess that's just you.
I don't know why you're being so pissy. You're saying it will never go away and I think it will go away the 2nd half of this decade. Could it go away sooner, sure it could.
I still have no idea what you're talking about.
Debt bubbles?
QE?
Inflation?
Zero bound interest rates?
I don't believe I ever predicted none of these would go away, everything eventually changes, nothing is eternal.
I wouldn't be so pissy if you weren't so damn stuck on not saying what you mean.
Inflation helps it
inflation helps what?
What you're posting about
and what do you take that to be? you're doing that thing again with the indefinite pronoun reference.
what does inflation help and how?
boy never says anything
IMHO we will never again see interest rates as low as they have been the last few years. I expect interest rates to increase up to 200 basic points over the next two years and inflation will settle at 4%-5%. Too much is already baked in. I get supplier increases every day and those won't be reversed.
Interest rates have been artificially depressed since 2008, I don't think there's any equivalent for it in US history. The price of credit wasn't going to stay that low forever.
And when we have 30 trillion in debt the politically easiest way out is to inflate and pay it off with devalued dollars.
And, of course, just like they are doing now, they will blame the inflation on "greedy corporations".
Interest rates were going to have to go up the 2nd half of this decade whether the Fed likes it or not. The ideal scenario would be the Fed stays dovish (200 basis points over the next 2 years is dovish) and is then forced to go all Volcker to control inflation and in doing so creates another 30 year bull bond market. Not saying that will happen but it's what I'm hoping for.
Well, let's not forget this also liquidates the "greedy corporations" debt as well, not to mention lowering wages, so you really shouldn't rule that out entirely either.
the last ten years are an extreme outlier in terms of the price of credit. bets made on the stability of ZIRP will not end well.
Profit margins and stock buybacks are currently at an all-time high.
Mortgage rates are screaming higher. They have doubled in a year. 30 year just hit 5% with no end in sight. With REIT's scooping up inventory with cash + interest rates At this rate the middle class will be renters and not buyers.
yep, that seems to be the plan. if you're not already rich, the American dream is dead.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/04/19/tr...ts-only-april/The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 2.93% at the close today, the highest since December 2018. The magic number there is 3.24%, beyond which yields are back in 2011 territory:
When yields rise, it means prices of those bonds fall, and prices fall the hardest of bonds with the longest remaining maturities.
And it’s a massacre for people who invested in what they thought was a very conservative and prudent instrument, namely a bond fund tracking long-term Treasury securities, when in fact it turned out to be a highly risky wager on long-term Treasury yields always going lower forevermore.
The longer end of the Treasury yields, from five-year maturities on up to the 30-year yield is still weighed down by the Fed’s obese balance sheet. QE was designed to push down long-term yields, and it did that. Now QE has ended, and the yields have come up some, but not nearly enough. But QT – the kick-off is sometime after the Fed’s meeting in May – will do the opposite of QE and will remove little by little that weight and will allow long-term yields to rise further, while the short-term yields will rise with the Fed’s rate hikes. And this should make for much higher long-term yields, higher mortgage rates, and a steeper yield curve as QT gets going.
thanks for the heads-up!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ability-reportThe Federal Reserve warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and high inflation in a semi-annual report published Monday.
“According to some measures, market liquidity has declined since late 2021 in the markets for recently-issued U.S. cash Treasury securities and for equity index futures,” the U.S. central bank said in its Financial Stability Report.
“While the recent deterioration in liquidity has not been as extreme as in some past episodes, the risk of a sudden significant deterioration appears higher than normal,” the report said. “In addition, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, liquidity has been somewhat strained at times in oil futures markets, while markets for some other affected commodities have been subject to notable dysfunction.”
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