Page 10 of 12 FirstFirst ... 6789101112 LastLast
Results 226 to 250 of 286
  1. #226
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    nice nuts

    the implicit federal safety net for banks (and non-bank broker-dealers,) hyperinflated credit, the carried interest loophole and interest rate arbitrage over the last 14 years have led us to where we are now




  2. #227
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Post Count
    18,121
    14 years have led us to where we are now
    I'm pretty happy with where "we" were led and where "we" are tbh. I'm sorry you're having a rough time in Biden's America.

  3. #228
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    I'm pretty happy with where "we" were led and where "we" are tbh. I'm sorry you're having a rough time in Biden's America.
    I wasn't speaking for myself, I was speaking to the macro situation.

    Big timing and towel snapping is about all you do beside posting

  4. #229
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Post Count
    18,121
    Fed Starts Experiment of Letting $8.9 Trillion Portfolio Shrink
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rtfolio-shrink

    The Fed is capping monthly runoff at $47.5 billion -- $30 billion for Treasuries and $17.5 billion for mortgage-backed securities -- until September. Those thresholds will then double to a combined $95 billion. That compares to a peak of $50 billion a month when the Fed performed the exercise starting in 2017.

    This is going to be an interesting experiment

  5. #230
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421



  6. #231

  7. #232
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    nuts and bolts of the BOE's short term pension fund bailout


  8. #233
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421

  9. #234
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    8,348
    Right know there is something like 900 billions dollars in Credit Card debt in America as the Fed raises rates the crash will be following real close.

  10. #235
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Positioning for a pause in rate hikes?


  11. #236
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    The embedded explainer is eye-opening


  12. #237
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Credit Swisse appears to be circling the drain. Deutsche Bank isn't doing so great either. BOE and the Fed have warned of systemic risks, the next year or two could be interesting.

  13. #238
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    after a lost decade, the hangover.

    in retrospect, the Fed's unexplained repo ops in 2019 were a sign of something badly awry. Why shovel $Ts out the to the banks in just a few months?






  14. #239
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Also, when banks mistrust their counterparties, they stop lending. It would appear a liquidity problem has its nose inside the tent, and once again the exposure of banks and nonbanks to illiquid assets is a major factor.

    another force is acting to drain bank liquidity – ironically, a creation of the Fed itself. The ‘reverse repo’ facility (RRP) allows intermediaries to place funds overnight at the Fed, secured against US Treasury collateral. This otherwise innocuous corner of the payments architecture is important because it provides access to the Fed’s balance sheet for non-banks, specifically the $4.5 trillion money market mutual fund (MMMF) industry. Over $2.2 trillion of funds are now parked at the Fed each evening via the RRP, the vast bulk of which comes from the MMMF sector.


    MMMFs’ use of the RRP drains reserves out of the banking system, dollar for dollar. In short, it gets us to the liquidity biting point faster than QT alone. How much faster is uncertain, but demand for RRP access is growing (see chart) – and likely to keep on doing so. When interest rates are rising, cash investors switch into MMMFs because they increase their rates faster than the banks, making them more attractive. And as funds invested in MMMFs grow, so will the desire to place those funds in the Fed’s RRP.
    https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking...the-green-line
    Last edited by Winehole23; 10-08-2022 at 02:12 AM. Reason: to illiquid assets

  15. #240
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Capitalism imploded in 2008-9. Keeping systemically important firms on a QE/ZIRP drip for 13 years has amplified fragility and deprived economies of productive investment. Rapidly rising interest rates will reveal who's swimming naked as liquidity vanishes and debt burdens grow.

    https://thethreadtimes.com/zombie-ca...is-unravelling

  16. #241
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    price discovery can be delayed, but not forever


  17. #242
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Credit Swisse appears to be circling the drain. Deutsche Bank isn't doing so great either. BOE and the Fed have warned of systemic risks, the next year or two could be interesting.
    credit default swaps


  18. #243
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    thinly sourced at WSJ, but maybe something to watch out for

    Pension funds adopted the so-called liability-driven investment strategy, or LDI, to address regulatory changes and help to close the gap between assets and liabilities. But the strategy faltered as interest rates surged and bond prices fell, forcing more selling and driving prices still lower. 'A vicious cycle kicks in and pension funds are selling and selling,' said Calum Mackenzie, an investment partner at pension-fund adviser Aon PLC. 'What you start to see is a death spiral'… Some of the more than $1.8 trillion worth of corporate pension plans in the U.S. are also facing margin calls."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/454...reatening-turn

  19. #244
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    BlackRock was tapped to manage the Fed's SPVs in March of 2020 and also supervised its (then) unprecedented purchasing of corporate bonds.

    https://www.cato.org/blog/feds-corpo...pseudo-markets


  20. #245
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Nouriel Roubini predicts a long, stagflationary recession

    For a year now, I have argued that the increase in inflation would be persistent, that its causes include not only bad policies but also negative supply shocks, and that central banks’ attempt to fight it would cause a hard economic landing. When the recession comes, I warned, it will be severe and protracted, with widespread financial distress and debt crises. Notwithstanding their hawkish talk, central bankers, caught in a debt trap, may still wimp out and settle for above-target inflation. Any portfolio of risky equities and less risky fixed-income bonds will lose money on the bonds, owing to higher inflation and inflation expectations.

    How do these predictions stack up? First, Team Transitory clearly lost to Team Persistent in the inflation debate. On top of excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies, negative supply shocks caused price growth to surge. COVID-19 lockdowns led to supply bottlenecks, including for labor. China’s “zero-COVID” policy created even more problems for global supply chains. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through energy and other commodity markets. And the broader sanctions regime – not least the weaponization of the US dollar and other currencies – has further balkanized the global economy, with “friend-shoring” and trade and immigration restrictions accelerating the trend toward deglobalization.

    Everyone now recognizes that these persistent negative supply shocks have contributed to inflation, and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve have begun to acknowledge that a soft landing will be exceedingly difficult to pull off. Fed Chair Jerome Powell now speaks of a “softish landing” with at least “some pain.” Meanwhile, a hard-landing scenario is becoming the consensus among market analysts, economists, and investors.

    It is much harder to achieve a soft landing under conditions of stagflationary negative supply shocks than it is when the economy is overheating because of excessive demand. Since World War II, there has never been a case where the Fed achieved a soft landing with inflation above 5% (it is currently above 8%) and unemployment below 5% (it is currently 3.7%). And if a hard landing is the baseline for the United States, it is even more likely in Europe, owing to the Russian energy shock, China’s slowdown, and the ECB falling even further behind the curve relative to the Fed.
    Are we already in a recession? Not yet, but the US did report negative growth in the first half of the year, and most forward-looking indicators of economic activity in advanced economies point to a sharp slowdown that will grow even worse with monetary-policy tightening. A hard landing by year’s end should be regarded as the baseline scenario.
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...oubini-2022-10

  21. #246
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    IMF warns of instability risks






  22. #247
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Still true seven years later, the Fed just announced QE4.

    So much for monetary normalization, the emergency propping up of "systemically important" ins utions by central banks appears to be permanent.

    The gold-plated socialism for banks and investors inaugurated by Obama continues under Trump. For the rest of us, there's rat race capitalism, debt peonage and fiscal austerity.

    It's all worth it so banks will never have to face the consequences of fraud and bad decisions like the rest of is.




    https://blog.independent.org/2019/09...tative-easing/
    it continues under Brandon, too.

    until, of course, whenever we have to face the consequences and mark illiquid assets and debts to market.

  23. #248
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    "who's got the deuce in their briefcase?"

    eventually, in principal and practice, you can run out of bigger fools to sell it to. when that happens, the exit is too small and failures to pay start to cascade through the economy. they used to call it panic.

  24. #249
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421

  25. #250
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    it continues under Brandon, too.

    until, of course, whenever we have to face the consequences and mark illiquid assets and debts to market.
    some open-end commercial real-estate funds in the UK have already gated redemptions.

    So heavy was the selling that three of the UK’s largest commercial property fund managers — Schroders, which runs the the £2.7 billion UK Real Estate fund; Columbia Threadneedle (£2.3 billion Pooled Property fund), and BlackRock (£3.5 billion UK Property fun) — as well as a smaller fund run by CBRE have admitted that they could not meet the pace of redemptions.


    In response, Schroders announced it will make some redemptions originally due on Monday this week as late as July next year. For its part, Columbia Threadneedle said volatile market conditions had forced it to switch from daily to monthly payouts. BlackRock has also imposed new restrictions on withdrawals. All told, around £9 billion of assets have been affected.


    This is not the first time that volatile market conditions have forced property fund managers in the UK to gate their funds. In June 2016, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, six commercial real estate (CRE) funds suspended redemptions. The same happened in March 2020, when the virus crisis was just beginning. At that time, 10 open-end property funds in the UK slammed their doors shut on investors, citing concerns about asset valuation. Between them they managed some £11 billion of assets.


    For the moment, it is only ins utional investors that have been affected by the newly gated funds. The hope is that it will stay that way and that the funds will once again be able to reopen their doors once the dust settles, as happened in 2016 and 2020.
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022...al-system.html

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •