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Miami are 6-5 in the Finals in the last 2 years. Also, the only team they've swept since Lebron and Bosh joined are the 38-44 Milwaukee Bucks this year. Guaranteed we get at least 1 game, probably 2.
Not in the Finals.
Miami are 6-5 in the Finals in the last 2 years. Also, the only team they've swept since Lebron and Bosh joined are the 38-44 Milwaukee Bucks this year. Guaranteed we get at least 1 game, probably 2.
He needs to go to work on Bosh, too. Even though they're the same height and probably within' 10 pounds of each other now, Duncan's got a stronger base and he's longer, so he should still be able to overpower and finish over the top of him in the post.
Chinook, not only will the Heat go small, they'll go small plenty and they'll likely do so irrespective to how Duncan and Splitter are playing. It's mass/strength that they have trouble defending in the post more than anything (look at the relative success the Grizzlies, Pacers and Jazz, have had against them in recent years) and for all their length, with Duncan's weight loss, he doesn't possess as much of either as he used to and Splitter never did.
Besides, Splitter's not a major low post/rebounding threat, anyway. He might do some damage with Battier on him, but you've got to give up something and if that means them maintaining optimal floor spacing on one end and less touches for the Spurs big three on the other, I think they'll live with it.
This has got to be one of the biggest problems. We are going to need Splitter to get a double double every game with the Heat playing so small, and he might not be up to the challenge. I don't want to see us throwing it in to Splitter and him backing down Battier in the post, but we would need to run action to get him good position in the paint for either a catch and finish or a rebound.
Alternatively, Diaw showed that he can back down players in the post against Barnes in the Golden State series. I actually think Diaw v Battier might be a better matchup advantage for us because Diaw should still be able to score on Battier in the post and his passing should be able to expose the aggressive Heat defence.
If Timmy takes initiative on offense the heat are in for a tough series. Timmy can take Bosh down low and force them to play haslem or birdman which hurts their spacing. Remember the warriors series was won once they began starting Landry or ezeli
I don't predict a sweep, but it's not easy to take a Finals game from Miami. It's quite a feat to do so. The team that backdoor swept the Spurs won only one game, and your stats discount that fact. Miami is only in it's 3rd year as it's currently constructed, so any Finals stats have to take that into consideration.
However if SA gets past the Grizzlies, I can predict that there will soon be conspiracy threads here about officiating in the Finals because Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard didn't get the calls, or that Wade got to the line too many times.
All you guys writing us off against miami can off. Yeah james is a tough matchup but who do they have to guard Timmy? or Tony? or Manu? If we let lebron get his, make him a scorer like we used to do with nash then they will have to live and die with jumpers and we know how that turned out for golden state. I'm not saying it will be easy but it's way too early to throw in the towel.
The Spurs will be an underdog for sure, but there might not be any other team left in the league better suited to defeating the Heat.
It's way too early to look past Memphis.
We're fans, not coaches or players. We can look as far ahead to the Finals or another NBA game as much as we want.
After Mem is done I will worry about it.
While I generally agree, I'd say the odds of a Memphis comeback are probably worse than the odds of an Indiana win. If we're going to entertain the notion of Memphis beating us, we might as well entertain the notion of us playing Indiana in the finals.
Take neither for granted, but I'd say it's 95% certain we'll have a Miami/Spurs finals.
The odds change if they win tonight. If they win a 2nd in a row, the odds change even more. What if it goes to 7, how do you feel about those odds?
Swift kick to the nuts?
if Green guards him and he falls down, i'll call flop every. ing. time.
I think the Spurs let Lebron get his and focus on shutting down all others as much as possible. We have seen Pop use this strategy in the past. I remember this against the Suns in the early days. Let Amare go off, stop others as much as possible. I think it would work wonders against Miami. Can you imagine Leonard stifling Wade? I could see him flat out shutting him down if that's the way the Spurs played it. I suspect, Leonard will guard Lebron though. Green on Wade, Parker on Chalmers. Really, not a bed setup IMO. Timmy can guard Bosh, or even Splitter can guard him. Honestly, I like the Spurs chances against the Heat. I'm not saying it would necessarily be quick, but I like the match ups.
I'd rather Lebron beat the Spurs than Allen, Battier, Miller, etc. Double team as little as possible. Rotate Leonard and Diaw on Lebron and try to wear him down. Spurs will miss SJax.
1. Limit turnovers.
2. Rebound, rebound, rebound.
3. Play big - 2 of TD, Splitter and Diaw at all times - no Bonner or Blair
4. Stay home on the others. Let Lebron try to win the game himself. If they keep it close, maybe he'll choke at the end or get tired.
Spurs need to go hard after game 1. That'll be the most winnable with all that rest - put pressure on them and hopefully they'll choke. That said, I think it'll be MIA in 5.
Last edited by rmt; 05-27-2013 at 07:04 PM.
a fire hydrant can stop bosh. pfft! sorry, i just have no respect for him.
It's the same as if Indiana wins the next one and takes Miami to 7. I would put us a 60/40 favourite if we play a game 7, but I think it's very unlikely we'll get that far.
Personally I think we'll lose tonight and close it out in Game 5.
Frankly, I've been looking ahead to the 2014 WCF. It was a damn shame that Kawhi went down the way he did in game 2, but I think Baynes has a superstar level game if we're going to take out the Blazers in 5.
What? Lebron has been a great facilitator since his Cleveland days. Thats not something new at all. The knock on him in Cleveland was that he passed so much and never wanted to take the last shot. He's not really grown at all he simply has a better team around him.
Let's close out the Grizzlies first
The Spurs have never lost when getting to the Finals so what does that mean?
Don't understand why so many are afraid of this Heat team. Sure, they have Lebron, but Wade does not seem to be what he once was, and they are also weak PG and C. Their bench is just a bunch of old, veteran shooters except for Birdman, and if the Spurs were able to stop a duo of young guns in Curry and Thompson, certainly they can stop 50 yr olds Ray Allen,Mike Miller, and Rashard Lewis.
Honestly, maybe the Spurs should just single cover Lebron and take away his passing options. Make him try to beat a team as stacked as the Spurs by himself.
I see what may be a lot of reverse jinxes going on, so be it.
I think the game plan against memphis was the same as the one against the lakers, no secret there.
If miami had to be compared to another series, I think it would be the gsw series. No typical inside post game for miami, everything originates from the perimter and will end up in a 3pt shot or a long 2, or a driving layup from the usual suspects. But they dont have a big man who is gonna pound it down low.
They can, however, break defenses down so that birdman gets a paint shot or an easy put back. Plus they can play small ball so it will be interesting to see where their 4 and 5 players stand on the court, much like gsw.
But we forced gsw to match up to us, and when need be we went small ourselves. We wont have to worry too much about their 1 chucking up 3s, the ball will be funneled through lebron for the shot or assist. I say we make lebron win the game via jumpshot, (aka the kobe treatment) keep his teammates un-involved, unless the game comes down to the final shot and you try to turn him into a passer.
If you can be in each game up until the end, like indiana did in the first 2 games, then good things will happen.
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