Two different advanced statistical models have predicted that the Spurs will be a 60+ win team next season.
First, Kevin Pelton of ESPN used a model based on real-plus minus to forecast that the Spurs will be +4.6 points per 100 possessions better than league average on offense and +6.0 points better on defense. That translates to a net rating of +10.6, not far off Golden State's mark of +11.5 last season, and good enough for 66-67 wins.
Next, Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight used a similar model based on real-plus minus projections for next season to predict a power rating of +8.9, good enough for 60 wins. By comparison, the Warriors' predicted power rating is +9.0.
Another thing to consider is that last year's Warriors are considered by advanced statistics to be a historically great NBA team. Their point differential ranks among the best in league history, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight pegged them as the 3rd greatest team of all-time. Because of regression to the mean, it's unlikely that they'll be able to repeat this performance next season and will likely fall back down to earth.
What's noteworthy about all this is that these are the very same models that are projecting that next year's Spurs will be just as good as this year's Warriors, a team so great it had to be an aberration. That is insane.
Now, many posters on this board have far more modest expectations for the Spurs, predicting a win total in the mid to high-50's and a 2 or 3 seed in the West. They point out that a combination of chemistry issues, injuries, age, and rest will prevent the Spurs from reaching 60 wins and challenging for the #1 overall seed.
But as these statistical models show, I think many of us are underestimating just how much of a regular season powerhouse next season's Spurs can be. I feel a lot of people's predictions for next year are skewed based on the Spurs' performance this year. But remember, we had several fluke late 4th qtr / OT losses this year, which is something unlikely to be repeated next year. Despite that, this year's team still managed to win 55 games and was a Pelicans loss away from being the #2 seed in the West. If next year's team is going to be significantly better than this year's, we should very easily surpass that win total.
Assuming reasonable health, I believe next year's Spurs team can be an absolute juggernaut.
Sounds pretty reasonable... The Spurs won 55 in an injury heavy year with no LaMarcus Aldridge and no David West.
Last year's Warriors also had one of the most unprecedented runs of good health I think the league has ever witnessed. Their five most played players, from 26mpg to 33mpg, missed a collective 15 games.
I'll be very surprised and disappointed if, barring a long injury to one of the Big Four (Kawhi, Aldridge, Duncan, and Green), the Spurs don't win north of 60 games.
I don't really see how that's a particularly bold prediction. If they have the same injury problems, they're probably five games better than last year's team.
The Clippers And Rockets could be better now. Those teams and a healthy OKC could challenge the spurs seeding. Just something to think about.
Health will be key, but I think it's pretty clear that seeding is important to post season success. I'd predict the Spurs will win 1 or 2 games more than the 2 seed.
Those statistical models don't count for the chemistry aspect of things. While I think Aldridge is a good fit on paper and I don't have doubts that he'll end up fitting well eventually, it's not like things are just going to happen over night. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start and had some growing pains.
I mean I'm not saying that 60+ wins is impossible or even unlikely...but I'm still predicting 56-58 wins personally. You have to keep in mind that the Western conference is shaping up to be one of the toughest conferences in history as well.
The issue isn't the Spurs, it's health and how good everyone else is. The West was great last year, but no KD, Spurs hobbled all year and so many other injuries.
If the Spurs stay healthy, they are going to wreck the league. 65 wins.
It doesnt surprise me at all, last season Spurs lost 10 games in the most stupid ways ever and against scrub teams MIL NETS DET etc..
And the majority of those were due to rest, tbh.
They may be good enough on paper, and could easily win at least 60, but there are two major factors in whether or not that happens: Pop, and the Western Conference.
Pop op doesn't care about the number of games won, and he is notorious for not caring about seeding - though if anything was ever going to change his mind, it might have been the 2015 Final Day of the Season Disaster. The Western Conference is also perhaps the strongest its ever been. The Spurs got stronger, Golden State is still a an, OKC should see a return to form, Houston and LA at the very least remained as compe ive as they were last year, Memohis remains strong, and Portland's collapse moves them from the playoff first-round-and-out table and makes room for Dallas, Phoenix, and New Orleans.
Winning 60+ games means gunning for a top 3 seed in this Western Conference. Golden State, Houston, and SA could all finish Top 3 - barring injuries or chemistry woes - with more than 60 wins. Los Angeles could get close, too.
Spurs will break the franchise record for wins next season imo. I see 65-17
advanced stats (like usual) aren't really necessary for this type of observation/prediction, tbh.
What are the odds Golden State gets through a full year with no significant injuries? that's with Bogut and Curry on the roster.
^they rest bogut A LOT so it wouldn't surprise me if he plays the majority of their games injury free and Curry seems like he'll be good on injuries. they may get a few here and there but they were dominate so even with a few injuries( not to curry or green though) they should be fine; they will still be a top 3 seed and probably 1st if the spurs don't get it.
The way i see it, if Kawhi plays all season(minus maybe some games for rest) they will clear 60 games easy and only cavs and warriors will challenge their seeding.
I think it will be interesting how well the Spurs and the Pelicans start...I think it will be very important come end of the year.
I think it will be interesting how well the Spurs and the Pelicans start (team continuity)...I think it will be very important come end of the year.
Just think Spurs wake up and roll out of bed winning 50 games. This Spurs team will win 62 to 65 games. As long as Kawhi,LA and Duncan don't miss significant games. Book it! Spurs nation should be the most excited since drafting Mr. Robinson and Duncan. This might be are best team ever put together. I know a lot of guys are passed their prime but let's face it. Duncan is still playing amazing. Manu and Tony's games fell down but with LA here, Kawhi looking real big in cp3 camp, David Wes motivated, d.green got paid. Kawhi will be a monster out there. Every year he gets better and he knows he got paid like a franchise player so he knows he has to play like them every game. I think right out of the gates I think Spurs turn it up a notch because Duncan and Manu last year, maybe. Plus I would hate to see a pissed off David west, because with the sacrifice he took to play for this team. This team is going to be fresh with the subs. It's going to be ridiculous when Duncan comes out and west comes in. Green comes out,Manu in. Ray comes in for Parker, Green comes in for kawhi, Diaw comes in for LA. Each player is going to be well rested. LA,Kawhi and green are the only ones that will play a lot of mins but I think pop might hold back on LA for being new to team and the wear Portland was doing to him. Pop extends careers. Plus LA plays hurt all the time. This roster is frickin Badass, top to bottom. Pop just needs to adjust his lineups, so he knows when to play small ,big and mix. Pop will be the mad scientist with lineups before playoffs start. I'm ready for the season. I just pray Kawhi and tony stay healthy in world games. Spurs set for history in the making.
As reading through this thread will show you, a lot of people on this board have predicted that the Spurs will finish with a win total in the mid to high-50's and finish as the 2 or 3 seed in the West.
My point was that I believe many people are seriously underestimating how much of a regular season juggernaut this team can be, and that they can easily finish with a win total as high as last season's Warriors.
You obviously didn't read the OP.
Good point, but I think you might be overestimating how good the Western Conference is. Last year's #2 seed, Houston, won only 56 games. The Clippers, the #3 seed, won 55.
While it's true the West has gotten better, I don't think our compe ion has improved to the point where there will be multiple 60-win teams in the conference. If the Spurs finish with 60+ wins, that should easily clinch the 2 seed at least. Depending on how hard the Warriors fall back down to earth, it could very well earn us #1 overall.
70 wins is possible if Coach Pop pushes them, runs them to the ground
but who needs 70 wins, the record books?
Coach Pop is wiser than the gods of valhalla.................
Go Spurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs go!
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
