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  1. #1
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Arrieta gets knob slobbered for his fantastic finish.
    Ok. The award is supposed to be for all year.

    He stated 4-4 and was 1-3 in May.

    Greinke got burned.

    A total burn? No they had similar stats. But Greinkes were better.

  2. #2
    Get Refuel! FromWayDowntown's Avatar
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    Beyond the fact that pitcher's W-L records are a horrible way to measure their quality (see, e.g., Hernandez, Felix), the idea that a player who is dominant for part of a season might get an award instead of a player who was really good from beginning to end is hardly new in baseball.

    The immediate example that comes to mind is the 1984 NL Cy Young winner, who was 16-1 in 20 starts with a 2.69 ERA and an ERA+ of 144 for a team that won its division as a feel-good story. The rest of his 1984 story is that he was 4-5 with a 5.15 ERA with an ERA+ of 80 in his first 15 starts that year, which happened to have all been with a really bad American League team.

  3. #3
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    Or maybe it's because of the fact that Arietta dominated Greinke in WAR, xFIP, FIP, SIERA, basically everything except for the good ol' ERA.

    & Clayton Kershaw should've won it anyway
    Last edited by AlexJones; 11-19-2015 at 06:14 PM.

  4. #4
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Or maybe it's because of the fact that Arietta dominated Greinke in WAR, xFIP, FIP, SIERA, basically everything except for the good ol' ERA.

    & Clayton Kershaw should've won it anyway
    War
    9.3 Greinke
    8.6 Arrieta

    Not that i put much stock in these geek stats.

  5. #5
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Beyond the fact that pitcher's W-L records are a horrible way to measure their quality (see, e.g., Hernandez, Felix), the idea that a player who is dominant for part of a season might get an award instead of a player who was really good from beginning to end is hardly new in baseball.

    The immediate example that comes to mind is the 1984 NL Cy Young winner, who was 16-1 in 20 starts with a 2.69 ERA and an ERA+ of 144 for a team that won its division as a feel-good story. The rest of his 1984 story is that he was 4-5 with a 5.15 ERA with an ERA+ of 80 in his first 15 starts that year, which happened to have all been with a really bad American League team.
    You're talking to the choir. I've been a Jared Weaver honk since he was at Long Beach State.
    Couple years ago he had like 19 starts where he allowed 3 earned or less, and i think 17 of the 19 he allowed 2 or less. "Quality starts" is the stat someone came up with.

    Well, bring on one of MLBs lower end managers, Mike Skosha.
    Weaver has a start where it is simply obvious he is just having one of those days. Like we all have. A "should have stayed in bed" day. What does "Skosh" do? Leaves Weaver in for 8 earned in like 3 or 4 innings. Shot to his Bob Gibsonlike era. And no the Angels were not scoring runs so it was not like an 8-6 American League slugfest.

    Above 1984. A somewhat comparable deal but Ariettas bad (well so-so but certainly bad in Cy terms) 1st qtr did not come on a "really bad American League team". Nor National.

  6. #6
    Veteran JoeTait75's Avatar
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    The immediate example that comes to mind is the 1984 NL Cy Young winner, who was 16-1 in 20 starts with a 2.69 ERA and an ERA+ of 144 for a team that won its division as a feel-good story. The rest of his 1984 story is that he was 4-5 with a 5.15 ERA with an ERA+ of 80 in his first 15 starts that year, which happened to have all been with a really bad American League team.
    The Tribe got Joe Carter in the Rick Sutcliffe deal, so it was the rare trade that benefited both teams.

    Another example is John Tudor in 1985; he started out 1-7 and went 20-1 the rest of the way with a 1.37 ERA. Tudor didn't win the Cy Young that year, but only because Dwight Gooden had a season for the ages. I don't think anyone held Tudor's slow start against him when it came to the voting.

  7. #7
    Veteran Fabbs's Avatar
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    I don't think anyone held Tudor's slow start against him when it came to the voting.
    Tudor got zero 1st place votes. Nor did he deserve any. So use any phraseology you want.

    Greinke had a great season imo. Interesting talk radio interview on how the voting came down. Midwest voters leaned toward Arrieta. Was brought out how sportwriters for years have local bias. Where it got weird is the local SoCal and NoCal voters all burned Greinke.
    Bay area, Orange County and Scam Diego < whom i can vouch are below moron status.

    So i'm not pounding the table and saying Greinke should have won in a landslide. They both had great years.

    I'll put the onus back on you and FromWayDowntown, tell me for what reasons Greinke should not have won?

  8. #8
    Get Refuel! FromWayDowntown's Avatar
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    Tudor got zero 1st place votes. Nor did he deserve any. So use any phraseology you want.
    Tudor didn't get 1st place votes in 1985 because Gooden was absolutely incredible that summer and it would have been a complete travesty if anyone other than him won. But, interestingly, Tudor's season was about as close as one could come to advocating for taking first place votes away from a pitcher having one of the 10 most memorable seasons in baseball history. As good as Doc was that year (and you'd almost have to have seen it to have believed it), Tudor was practically untouchable after his terrible start. Between June 8 and September 26, Tudor made 23 starts and threw 12 complete games with 10 of those being shutouts. In 18 of those 23 games, he gave up 2 runs or less. Gooden was great, but Tudor was nearly as good. More pointedly, one of Gooden's 4 losses that year came in a crucial game at home against St. Louis in early September, in which Tudor threw a 3-hit, 10 inning shut out to win a 1-0 game (to be fair, Doc threw 9 shutout innings before Orosco choked up the game in the 10th).

    It's not really true to say that Tudor didn't deserve any first place votes; in many other years, that effort by him would have won the Cy Young award very easily.

    I'll put the onus back on you and FromWayDowntown, tell me for what reasons Greinke should not have won?
    Nice strawman. I never argued that Greinke shouldn't have won; you argued that Arrieta winning despite a bad stretch of the season was somehow unique or unprecedented. I don't really give a crap who won; I just joined the thread to point out -- contrary to your original point -- an historical precedent for that outcome. Don't take my insistence in disproving your point to be advocacy for Arrieta; it isn't.

  9. #9
    Veteran JoeTait75's Avatar
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    Nice strawman. I never argued that Greinke shouldn't have won; you argued that Arrieta winning despite a bad stretch of the season was somehow unique or unprecedented. I don't really give a crap who won; I just joined the thread to point out -- contrary to your original point -- an historical precedent for that outcome. Don't take my insistence in disproving your point to be advocacy for Arrieta; it isn't.
    That's pretty much where I'm at. I don't have a dog in this fight; I would just imagine it isn't that uncommon either w/Cy Young or MVP winners to start slow. The year George Brett hit .390 and won the MVP he was hitting .247 with two home runs as late as the third week of May. There really isn't any difference between a slow start and a mid-season slump, other than when they take place. Slumps and hot streaks are endemic to baseball, they shouldn't affect the entire body of work.

  10. #10
    ex Hornets78 Pelicans78's Avatar
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    LOL Greinke. Forced his way out of KC. Royals trade his whiny ace to the Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, and Jake Odorizzi. Royals move Odorizzi with Wil Myers and a couple of other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.

    In the end, the Royals got Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar from trading that whiny . Perennial 1st round loser

  11. #11
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Tudor was practically untouchable after his terrible start. Between June 8 and September 26, Tudor made 23 starts and threw 12 complete games with 10 of those being shutouts. In 18 of those 23 games, he gave up 2 runs or less. Gooden was great, but Tudor was nearly as good.
    I'm sure if i took the best chunk of a 23 game stretch Greinke would match Tudors run.

    Greinke had 27 starts with 2 earned or less allowed. And yet the lame Dodgers offense only game him 19 wins.
    21 starts allowing 1 earned or less.
    6 shutouts in a freaking row!
    12 shutouts

  12. #12
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Tudor didn't get 1st place votes in 1985 because Gooden was absolutely incredible that summer and it would have been a complete travesty if anyone other than him won.

    Fabbs here ^............and below

    It's not really true to say that Tudor didn't deserve any first place votes;
    Compare and contrast.

  13. #13
    Get Refuel! FromWayDowntown's Avatar
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    Compare and contrast.
    Are you trying to litigate 1985? Gooden won; he should have and I said that. Tudor was exceptional, too, and in virtually any other year, he would have won the Cy Young even though he started 1-7.

    What's your point?

  14. #14
    Dragon style JamStone's Avatar
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    Arrieta was elite for more than 3/4 of a season. Just because he started 4-4, it doesn't mean all 8 of those decisions were mediocre or bad. 6 of those first 8 starts were still quality starts. Half of them (4) were still 7+ innings of work allowing 0 or 1 ER. You bolded Greinke's "21 starts allowing 1 earned or less." Interestingly enough, Arrieta had the same 21 starts of allowing 1 earned or less. Arrieta didn't allowed more than 4 ER all season.

    The clinchers for Arrieta were perhaps the higher strikeout total and the fact he had 4 complete games, 3 of which were complete game shutouts, including the no-hitter. Greinke threw only 1 complete game (8 innings).

    Greinke may have also been deserving, but he certainly wasn't robbed.

  15. #15
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Arrieta was elite for more than 3/4 of a season. Just because he started 4-4, it doesn't mean all 8 of those decisions were mediocre or bad. 6 of those first 8 starts were still quality starts. Half of them (4) were still 7+ innings of work allowing 0 or 1 ER. You bolded Greinke's "21 starts allowing 1 earned or less." Interestingly enough, Arrieta had the same 21 starts of allowing 1 earned or less. Arrieta didn't allowed more than 4 ER all season.

    The clinchers for Arrieta were perhaps the higher strikeout total and the fact he had 4 complete games, 3 of which were complete game shutouts, including the no-hitter. Greinke threw only 1 complete game (8 innings).

    Greinke may have also been deserving, but he certainly wasn't robbed.
    I'd like to see how they compared on run support.
    Not so much overall runs, as that gets skewed when your offense leaves you stranded by scoring 2 or less runs on 6 of your starts then erupts for 10 runs in one game. See Jared Weaver, Angels.

    Ya like a "Unquality Offense" # of games.
    The Dodgers left Greinke hosed many games this year.
    Arrieta?

  16. #16
    Dragon style JamStone's Avatar
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    Run support

    Greinke 3.84 runs per start
    Arrieta 4.18 runs per start

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...-2/order/false

    Tough losses
    Greinke 3
    Arrieta 3

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...ic/order/false

    I don't know exactly what you want in terms of run support but that's the general stat from espn. And I don't know the formula for "tough loss" but it's essentially when a pitcher throws well enough to win but ends up getting the loss. It obviously doesn't include starts where a pitcher is lights out and gets a no-decision.

  17. #17
    Get Refuel! FromWayDowntown's Avatar
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    These arguments with Fabbs are always tar babies. You respond to the point and support your response with evidence. Then the argument changes.

  18. #18
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    It's not really true to say that Tudor didn't deserve any first place votes;
    Your Honor I'd like to stipulate that FromWayDowntown be allowed to edit this post out from his record.

  19. #19
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Tough losses
    Greinke 3
    Arrieta 3

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...ic/order/false

    I don't know exactly what you want in terms of run support but that's the general stat from espn. And I don't know the formula for "tough loss" but it's essentially when a pitcher throws well enough to win but ends up getting the loss. It obviously doesn't include starts where a pitcher is lights out and gets a no-decision.
    Ya they give no explanation for "tough loss". I think Greinke had more then 3. Didn't follow Arrieta close enough to know but he probably had more then three too?

    Lights out and no decision i agree. A huge factor if i am voting.
    Both pitchers had a load of these. But i think Cub bats came thru much more then Dodger bats.

  20. #20
    Veteran Fabbs's Avatar
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    Arrieta was elite for more than 3/4 of a season. Just because he started 4-4, it doesn't mean all 8 of those decisions were mediocre or bad. 6 of those first 8 starts were still quality starts. Half of them (4) were still 7+ innings of work allowing 0 or 1 ER. You bolded Greinke's "21 starts allowing 1 earned or less." Interestingly enough, Arrieta had the same 21 starts of allowing 1 earned or less. Arrieta didn't allowed more than 4 ER all season.

    The clinchers for Arrieta were perhaps the higher strikeout total and the fact he had 4 complete games, 3 of which were complete game shutouts, including the no-hitter. Greinke threw only 1 complete game (8 innings).

    Greinke may have also been deserving, but he certainly wasn't robbed.
    Bottom line if we take out both of their 21 unquestionably great starts, the remainder of Greinkes work outdoes Arrietas imo.
    We talked about "great starts with no decision" -Greinke had a ton of these! Will post later. I know Arrieta had some too but
    Greinkes >>>> Arrietas.

  21. #21
    Dragon style JamStone's Avatar
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    Bottom line if we take out both of their 21 unquestionably great starts, the remainder of Greinkes work outdoes Arrietas imo.
    Minus each of those 21 starts by each pitcher:

    Greinke (11 games): 56.2 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57 K, 16 BB
    Arrieta (12 games): 72.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 73 K, 25 BB

    If you say so. Still a negligible and insignificant a difference to me.

  22. #22
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    I agree in the games other then the 21 the combined stats are almost identical.
    If you say so. Still a negligible and insignificant a difference to me.
    Yet the 1st place voting of 17 to 10 is neither negligible nor insignificant.

    FabbsWe talked about "great starts with no decision" -Greinke had a ton of these! Will post later. I know Arrieta had some too but
    Greinkes >>>> Arrietas.
    In Quality Starts, this is where i give the edge to Greinke. 30 led MLB.

    Earned runs allowed / No Decision

    1 earned in April and May 4 games
    1 earned in June for 1 game
    0 allowed in back to back games also in June!

    Just at this point thru June, Greinke has been burned out of 7 win Decisions.

    2 earned Aug and Sept combined he had 2 games

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