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Thanks for the research, OP.Very informative.
Comparing the remaining schedules for the Spurs and Warriors as of January 7, we see that:
- Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. Golden State): 0.528
- Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.488
- Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.507
- Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.468
The Spurs do indeed have a tougher schedule. Looking further, I excluded games against common opponents. For example, the Spurs and Warriors both play Dallas 3 times each over the rest of the season. Removing those games and all others like them:
- Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. Golden State): 0.582
- Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
- Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.512
- Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.401
This indicates that the Warriors have a much easier schedule than the Spurs: 0.038 difference excluding the four Spurs/Warriors matchups. However, Philadelphia is by far the worst team in the league. The Spurs have already played both games against them, while Golden State hasn't faced them yet.
- Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
- Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio and Philadelphia): 0.461
It's cherry-picking to some extent, I know. But the Warriors have played two fewer games than the Spurs. If the schedule somehow had Golden State playing Philadelphia in their next two games (both Warriors gimmes), we would have 35-2 Golden State and 31-6 San Antonio in the standings, but the Spurs would have an easier schedule.
The non-common opponents are:
- Spurs: Nets, Hornets, Cavs, Pistons, Rockets, Lakers, Pelicans x2, Kings, Raptors
- Warriors: Hawks x2, Celtics, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers x2, Blazers x3, Wizards x2
Other than Philadelphia, all the Warriors' non-common opponents have at least 12 wins so far (and all other than the Wolves have 15+), while five of the Spurs' non-common opponents have fewer than 12 wins so far, and one under 15 wins.
All told, it looks to be a tight race for the #1 seed in the West. If one of the Spurs and Warriors goes 3-1 or 4-0 in the season series, that will likely lock up the #1 seed. A 2-2 split favors the Warriors due to their 4-game lead in the loss column and that the Spurs have 3 losses vs the West while the Warriors only have 1.
Last edited by Seventyniner; 01-07-2016 at 09:16 PM.
Thanks for the research, OP.
Dont we play them only thrice
Who is op????
We play Golden Showers 4 times.
What a rad research and analysis OP
Great post, Niner. Very cool.
OP with goods per par
Warriors have played two less games than Spurs. Just give them the two Philly games and a full four game lead, and all the sudden the SOS's basically the same.
Well done. Being 2 games behind us, but those being against philly who we already played and is the worst team in the league, seems to me to be a fair starting point.
Once you control for that, our opponents are actually slightly weaker than GS. Encouraging.
However, i think it likely we will go 2-2 against GS; maybe 3-1. I don't think that 3-1 is enough to catch up and get the 1 seed, but that is why they have the games to play.
Four times. Jan 25, Mar 19, Apr 7, Apr 10.
Warriors schedule hasn't been all that tough, they've still yet to face us or OKC. I think we take 3 of 4 from them in the RS.
Good stuff. I really wonder considering the importance of HCA how much importance Pop will put on the games with GSW. Will there be a certain amount of poker playing going on? For instances we let Curry go crazy on us in RS and then completely change our approach on him in the playoffs.....or the opposite. I'm guessing we won't be playing "rope-a-dope" exactly, but seeing what works and what doesn't.
"Original Poster" (of or pertaining to a thread), young Padawan.
The sort of stuff that makes ST the best place for all things Spurs.
In b4 "Pounding the is better".The sort of stuff that makes ST the best place for all things Spurs.
Wait...I call bull . There is NO WAY this can be an ST thread. It has actual basketball conversation and there are no gy dip no-nothings in here turning the thread into a toxic wasteland...
Seriously though, a very, very awesome writeup and kudos to OP. He just might not want to associate with 90% of this hole.
cool research and analysis
thanks OP
tbh I thought it would have been worst than that
I don't know that the Warriors can sustain this pace throughout the rest of the season. I think it will be a down-to-the-wire race to the #1 seed. Hopefully we don't play the Pelicans in game 82.
Game 82 is @ Dallas. Arguably a higher quality opponent, but one that isn't likely to be fighting for a playoff spot by that point.
HCA won't matter. The Spurs will win regardless of whether they finish with the best record or not. GSW are in for a rude awakening.
P.S. - I'm glad the schedule gets tougher. Tougher opponents will better prepare the Spurs for the playoffs.
HCA matters, but what matters more is avoiding having to play both OKC and GS, especially back-to-back. 1 seed will have a huge advantage because of that. Not to mention, the first round series against the 8th seed would likely be a sweep to 5 games (Utah/Sac/Por type team) while the 7th seed could be a team like Houston. Still would win, but more effort.
HCA coming into play would require the series going seven games, which may only happen 25% of the time anyway. 70%/30% home/away winning would imply about a 10% difference in odds of winning the series. So not unsubstantial, but not the be all end all.
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