Spurs Salaries: 2015-2016 Edition

[Chinook]

2015-2016 Salaries:

Guaranteed:
LaMarcus Aldridge $19,689,000
Kawhi Leonard $16,407,500
Tony Parker $13,437,500
Danny Green $10,000,000
Boris Diaw $7,500,000
Tim Duncan $5,250,000
Patty Mills $3,578,947
Manu Ginobili $2,814,000
David West $1,499,187
Boban Marjanovic $1,200,000
Kyle Anderson $1,142,879
Matt Bonner $947,276
Jonathan Simmons $525,093
Andre Miller $250,750
Kevin Martin $200,600

Guaranteed Salaries for Waived Players
Jimmer Fredette (waived) $507,711
Ray McCallum (waived) $947,276
Rasual Butler (waived) $947,276


Total (all guaranteed at this point): $86,844,995
2015-2016 salary cap: $70,000,000 ($16,844,995 over the cap)
2015-2016 luxury tax threshold: $84,740,000 ($2,104,995 over the tax)

I’ll just pay homage to Bruno by quoting his explanation of the tax:

The Luxury Tax:

What is the luxury tax?
The luxury tax is a mechanism whose first goal is to reduce the differences between the richest and the poorest franchises by penalizing teams that overspend the others teams. Penalties have considerably raise with the new CBA to make it very expensive for teams to go way over the luxury tax threshold.
For more details, check Larry Coon's CBA FAQ .

The triple penalty system:
A team above the tax is three time penalized. First, they had to pay the luxury tax. Second, they don't get a share of the luxury tax money given by the NBA to teams. Third, it makes it more likely to have to pay the repeater tax in the future.
The last two effects push teams that are just above the tax threshold to go under it.

Remaining financial flexibility for 2015-2016:

Lol, none. That’s what happens when you wait forever to do this.


2016 free agency:

Here’s where the Spurs stand financially going into next summer:

Guaranteed (No Option):
LaMarcus Aldridge $20,575,005
Kawhi Leonard $17,638,063
Tony Parker $14,445,313
Danny Green $10,000,000
Patty Mills $3,578,948
Kyle Anderson $1,192,080
Boris Diaw $3,000,000

Total $70,429,409

Non-guaranteed (No option):
Boris Diaw $4,000,000
Jonathan Simmons $874,636

Total $4,874,636

Player Options:
Tim Duncan $5,643,750
Manu Ginobili $2,940,630
David West $1,551,659

Total $10,136,039

Qualifying Offers:
Boban Marjanovic $1,500,000

Total $1,500,000

Cap Holds:
Matt Bonner $980,431
Andre Miller $980,431
Kevin Martin $980,431
Rasual Butler $980,431 (Yes, Butler still counts.)

Total $3,921,724

Draft Picks and Stashed Guys:

29th pick $983,400
Nikola Milutinov $991,600
Livio Jean-Charles $893,500

Total $2,868,500

Projected 2016-2017 salary cap: $92 Million
Projected 2016-2017 luxury tax threshold: $110.8 Million

There are really two paths the Spurs will have to choose between this summer. They’ll either patch whatever holes form on their roster and focus on 2017 for their next free-agent rodeo or they’ll try to create as much cap as they can to get another big name. Very likely there will be some mix between these paths, but they’ll likely be significantly closer to one than the other. Let’s go over both of these paths:

Path 1
It's pretty boring. I’m assuming the team has Tim and Manu returning and not trading away or waiving anyone. The team would have about $89 Million in total salary if they use their pick and add LJC. Add in the $6 Million or so for the MLE and the $2 Million for the LLE, and you don’t have cap space even if the cap is significantly higher than projected like it was this year.

Path 2

Pretty exciting and a little scary. It supposes that both Tim and Manu retire without taking any of their salary for next season. West opts out but doesn’t necessarily retire. The Spurs then waive and stretch Diaw while finding a way to stash their picks or use them in trades. They don’t give Boban a QO, and they renounce all of their free agents. That gets them to $68,904,045. They have to have five roster charges of $543,471 each for a total of $2,717,355.

That gets them to $71,621,400 in total, or about $20,378,600 in available space. That’s not enough for any max contract, though it’s very close for guys like Whiteside. I’m not sure what that buys in a previous year, but this summer, it probably won’t buy much. If the cap is a couple million higher, it would be enough for a full max for Whiteside, but I’m pretty unconvinced that he’d be a good use of money. There are others like Clarkson and Sullinger who could be had potentially, but they’re RFAs and won’t necessarily be good value either. Best hope is to get a couple of really good players if you want to go this route without trading away anyone else.

Bottom line is that it’s even less likely that the Spurs will have the ability to sign a big-name player this summer than it was last year. With so many teams having space, players simply won’t have to take less. It would require even bigger personnel sacrifices to get the space, and that’s even harder to swallow given that this idea relies on losing three of the most cost-effective players on the roster.

[Kawhitstorm]

That gets them to $71,621,400 in total, or about $20,378,600 in available space. That’s not enough for any max contract, though it’s very close for guys like Whiteside. I’m not sure what that buys in a previous year, but this summer, it probably won’t buy much. If the cap is a couple million higher, it would be enough for a full max for Whiteside, but I’m pretty unconvinced that he’d be a good use of money. There are others like Clarkson and Sullinger who could be had potentially, but they’re RFAs and won’t necessarily be good value either.

There is no way PATFO are giving a knuckle-head like Whiteside anything close to a max contract. (Could cuck the Worriers by signing Ezeli to an offer-sheet though)

Best hope is to get a couple of really good players if you want to go this route without trading away anyone else.

Joakim Noah on line-1 b/c your boy Horford is getting a supermax contract.

I'm actually more interested on how PATFO tackle the point guard situation whether be it through the draft, FA or trades. I feel like Kyle & maybe K-Mart can makeup for the loss of Manu, plus someone like Mayo can be had for cheap.

Best case senario if Tim/Manu retire:

Draft GP II
Sign Noah/Mayo(only if he's dirt cheap)
Re-sign K-Mart
Replace Bonner w/ Bertans (or Leuer)
Should have enough money to re-sign Boban (otherwise sign Hibbert) or even D-West if he opts-out for a pay raise (MLE?).

[Chinook]

There is no way PATFO are giving a knuckle-head like Whiteside anything close to a max contract. (Could cuck the Worriers by signing Ezeli to an offer-sheet though)

I agree about Whiteside. I don't want him. Just saying that he's the rare UFA that the Spurs could potentially afford to max out. Would much rather roll with Sullinger, though, as he is likely to cost half as much as those other guys and is a good fit with LMA. Just pointing out what the Spurs can pay for next summer, and what they'd have to sacrifice to do it.

I'm actually more interested on how PATFO tackle the point guard situation whether be it through the draft, FA or trades. I feel like Kyle & maybe K-Mart can makeup for the loss of Manu, plus someone like Mayo can be had for cheap.

I think they're hoping Anderson and Mills can lead the bench with someone sliding between them who compliments their strengths. A three-and-D guy would make a ton of sense.

[Kawhitstorm]

I think they're hoping Anderson and Mills can lead the bench with someone sliding between them who compliments their strengths. A three-and-D guy would make a ton of sense.

I wouldn't mind Courtney Lee if he can be had for the MLE (considering he's having a pretty ordinary season that should be his market value). It probably depends on how K-Mart fares in the postseason on whether they keep K-Mart & sign some vet min type guy like Mayo (considering his ty season, he's in the same shoe as Gerald Green this past summer) or get a legit 3&D guy like Lee.

[SAGirl]

Thanks for doing this Chinook!!!!
I always have trouble with cap issues!
Frankly looking at that list the Boris Diaw is overpaid. He's our 5th highest paid player but hasn't been playing like it. You would think he should be producing like a 6th man.

[sasaint]

Chinook, I believe your assumptions are wrong for Path 1. Manu was set to retire last off-season. He came back because the team said they wanted him back. I do not believe we would try to convince him to return next season. We have some guys in the wings that we need to give more floor time to. In particular, the development of Kyle will suffer if Manu returns.

I also believe Tim will probably not return as a player by his own choice. And I believe that Diaw will not return by the Team's choice. At any rate, we stood pat last season, and it turned out to be a big mistake. I doubt we make a similar mistake this off-season.

[Chinook]

Chinook, I believe your assumptions are wrong for Path 1. Manu was set to retire last off-season. He came back because the team said they wanted him back. I do not believe we would try to convince him to return next season. We have some guys in the wings that we need to give more floor time to. In particular, the development of Kyle will suffer if Manu returns.

I also believe Tim will probably not return as a player by his own choice. And I believe that Diaw will not return by the Team's choice. At any rate, we stood pat last season, and it turned out to be a big mistake. I doubt we make a similar mistake this off-season.

Sounds then like you're just saying that you think Path 2 is more likely. That's fine. Remember that these paths show what I believe are the cap-space amounts the team would have at either extreme. They can and will do something at least slightly different from these two scenarios, but the cap space will most likely fall between these two numbers, provided the cap isn't even higher than the projections.

[sasaint]

Sounds then like you're just saying that you think Path 2 is more likely. That's fine. Remember that these paths show what I believe are the cap-space amounts the team would have at either extreme. They can and will do something at least slightly different from these two scenarios, but the cap space will most likely fall between these two numbers, provided the cap isn't even higher than the projections.

I did not grasp that from your initial post. I am not sure which Path will be closer to the paths you set forth. I personally tend toward a fairly radical path even beyond Path 2. But the Spurs are typically very conservative when it comes to roster moves. I expect us to make a couple of mid-level FA signings to compensate for the loss of Manu, Tim and possibly Diaw. Marjanovic is still an unknown to me. I don't remember any Spur about whom I was so ambivalent. One day I like to think he is a legitimate NBA center that we need to hold on to. The next day I think that letting him go and signing Hibbert would be a nice upgrade.

[SAGirl]

Chinook, I believe your assumptions are wrong for Path 1. Manu was set to retire last off-season. He came back because the team said they wanted him back. I do not believe we would try to convince him to return next season. We have some guys in the wings that we need to give more floor time to. In particular, the development of Kyle will suffer if Manu returns.

I also believe Tim will probably not return as a player by his own choice. And I believe that Diaw will not return by the Team's choice. At any rate, we stood pat last season, and it turned out to be a big mistake. I doubt we make a similar mistake this off-season.

I agree with you on Manu.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

I'm just really glad the Spurs went all in last summer and can avoid the show free agency will be this summer.

[Luxic]

Just minor note: there's actually no cap hold for Butler. Waived players are renounced, which means no FA rights on them (be it Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) and consequently no cap hold.

[CGD]

Thanks for this helpful primer. Would enjoy it when Bruno did it back in the day, so this was a welcome sight.

not only is 20m not enough for a max player, their arent really any players out there worth the max this off season. The only one that would is KD (i only mention bc of the recent "rumor") and i imagine the Spurs would have to Taigo Danny this summer to get the space.

I don't think option 1 is that boring so long as the Spurs bring in LJC and Bertans. Would be exciting to see what a few eager rooks can bring to the team.

[DPG21920]

Chinook what is the best site for salaries that shows accurately the options/guarantees/etc..? I was using Shamsports but now I have not found a go to site since that went down.

[ace3g]

Chinook what is the best site for salaries that shows accurately the options/guarantees/etc..? I was using Shamsports but now I have not found a go to site since that went down.

I found good information here:

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/cap/

[SAGirl]

I did not grasp that from your initial post. I am not sure which Path will be closer to the paths you set forth. I personally tend toward a fairly radical path even beyond Path 2. But the Spurs are typically very conservative when it comes to roster moves. I expect us to make a couple of mid-level FA signings to compensate for the loss of Manu, Tim and possibly Diaw. Marjanovic is still an unknown to me. I don't remember any Spur about whom I was so ambivalent. One day I like to think he is a legitimate NBA center that we need to hold on to. The next day I think that letting him go and signing Hibbert would be a nice upgrade.

Wow sasaint with the Nostradamus-like prediction!!! 
This was a pretty accurate middle of the season prediction still not to its full conclusion, but pretty spot on.

[SAGirl]

Chinook this thread continues to be super helpful considering our postseason struggles and farther time cat h ing on to Timmy it is time for path 2.

[Kawhitstorm]

Path 2

Pretty exciting and a little scary. It supposes that both Tim and Manu retire without taking any of their salary for next season. West opts out but doesn’t necessarily retire. The Spurs then waive and stretch Diaw while finding a way to stash their picks or use them in trades. They don’t give Boban a QO, and they renounce all of their free agents. That gets them to $68,904,045. They have to have five roster charges of $543,471 each for a total of $2,717,355.

That gets them to $71,621,400 in total, or about $20,378,600 in available space. That’s not enough for any max contract, though it’s very close for guys like Whiteside. I’m not sure what that buys in a previous year, but this summer, it probably won’t buy much. If the cap is a couple million higher, it would be enough for a full max for Whiteside, but I’m pretty unconvinced that he’d be a good use of money. There are others like Clarkson and Sullinger who could be had potentially, but they’re RFAs and won’t necessarily be good value either. Best hope is to get a couple of really good players if you want to go this route without trading away anyone else.

Bottom line is that it’s even less likely that the Spurs will have the ability to sign a big-name player this summer than it was last year. With so many teams having space, players simply won’t have to take less. It would require even bigger personnel sacrifices to get the space, and that’s even harder to swallow given that this idea relies on losing three of the most cost-effective players on the roster.

It seems like PATFO are going to target Conley & clear cap space by dumping Diaw/Porker's contract ala the Tiago/LMA transaction but maybe get a 1st rd pick out of it like Danny Ainge did for Pierce/KG's corpse.

They would still have the Room Exception to sign Pau & 10-12 mill to sign a backup wing/center (Courtney Lee/Mozgov?)

Pau/Mozgov
LMA/West?
Kawhi/Kyle
Danny/Lee
Conley/Patty

[SAGirl]

^^
Well Manu's recent article in La Nacion http://canchallena.lanacion.com.ar/1...?sitio=desktop leaves open the real possibility of a return. Obviously Pop wants them back. Timmy didn't look good the 2nd part of the season and he's uncertain but there is a possibility he returns too. that would be path 1.

I see the guy likeliest to get waived/stretched/traded to be Diaw. They will make what improvements they can, maybe Gasol, maybe someone else, but no big additions. I do see Bertans being brought in bc we need shooting badly. Maybe someone else. Less sure on LJC than Chinook is but he's a possibility. I hope we draft one of the guards, Malcolm Brogdon is fine or a few others could also be candidates. I liked Dejontey Murray to replace Manu, eventually. Has a Jamal Crawford type game. Anyways there are different possibilities.

Spurs will have to hope for some internal improvement from their younger guys in the upcoming season too bc it's impossible to fill all our needs in FA. Some cheap young legs need to come from our stashed guys (one or two of Bertans/LJC/Lalanne/any others?). I remain ever hopeful Kyle will improve on what really would be his full second season with the team (first season spent almost entirely in the dleague didn't offer the experience he got this season). Guys usually improve in a 2nd season in the NBA and in the Spurs system. LMA and Kawhi a second season together gives them chemistry and opportunities for Pop to evaluate what they did well and where they struggled.

It would still be hopefully a younger team with Timmy and Manu in more supportive than prominent roles. We shall see.

[Kawhitstorm]

^^
Well Manu's recent article in La Nacion http://canchallena.lanacion.com.ar/1...?sitio=desktop leaves open the real possibility of a return. Obviously Pop wants them back. Timmy didn't look good the 2nd part of the season and he's uncertain but there is a possibility he returns too. that would be path 1.

Conley can still be acquired if PATFO dumps Porker/Diaw. The MLE will always be there for Pau no matter which path they choose. Essentially, instead of Mozgov/Lee you would have Tim/Manu. Maybe, use the LLE to pick up Mayo since Manu can't be a full-time backup.

[Chinook]

Conley can still be acquired if PATFO dumps Porker/Diaw. The MLE will always be there for Pau no matter which path they choose. Essentially, instead of Mozgov/Lee you would have Tim/Manu. Maybe, use the LLE to pick up Mayo since Manu can't be a full-time backup.

That's not the way it works. The MLE is only available to those who don't use cap space.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

That's not the way it works. The MLE is only available to those who don't use cap space.

^ This.

Also, isn't it highly probable that the cap will exceed the $92 mil that's been the expected figure for a while. I've read it could get to $95 mil. The higher it is, the more options it gives the Spurs to be aggressive in their approach.

[Kawhitstorm]

That's not the way it works. The MLE is only available to those who don't use cap space.

I forgot about that, they could still dangle him the Room Exception.

[Chinook]

I'm updating my cap projection to be $19,140,513 assuming a $92-Million cap. This is under a scenario where everyone opts out who can and is either let go or re-signed to the min/room exception with Diaw being waived and stretched. The difference in this projection is that I allowed for the team to use their pick and to bring over at least two players. I think it's more realistic to have them adding young talent.

[CGD]

I see the scenario where Tim, Manu, and West opt out but all resign (Bird former two, and another 1+1 vet minimum deal for latter) after the Spurs make their capspace moves.

Also, I do wonder if instead of waiving Diaw they try to trade him, for example, if there is any truth to the Robinson rumblings something like Jack/Robinson for
Boris.

[cjw]

I'm updating my cap projection to be $19,140,513 assuming a $92-Million cap. This is under a scenario where everyone opts out who can and is either let go or re-signed to the min/room exception with Diaw being waived and stretched. The difference in this projection is that I allowed for the team to use their pick and to bring over at least two players. I think it's more realistic to have them adding young talent.

Bringing over young players isn't a huge cost either in terms of cap space, as it removes those $544k roster charges. Essentially whatever you pay them less $544k. None of them is in Splitter's boat of having to offer a lot of money to pry them away from Europe.

What type of money would it take to sign Bertans (most likely to sign next year) and others? I know there are differences with the first rounders (making some harder to bring over if they have big buyout clauses ... LJC, Milutinov) and seconds too.