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He's too busy miscalculating odds to care about it.And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon
Probability of da_suns_fan having duplicate chromosomes: 100%
He's too busy miscalculating odds to care about it.And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon
They were selling your .Lobster, coaxed out of the lobster hole.
Job well done, Millennial Messiah
They were selling your .
the next time they sell your , you'll have dig through six feet of dirt to get wifi
op clearly doesn't get statistics
They were selling your .
and in 2014...let's not forget 2014
What's the probability of this?
2010–11 NBA Western 10th Pacific 2nd 40 42 .488 17 2011–12 [c] NBA Western 10th Pacific 3rd 33 33 .500 17 2012–13 NBA Western 15th Pacific 5th 25 57 .305 32 2013–14 NBA Western 9th Pacific 3rd 48 34 .585 9 Goran Dragić (MIP) 2014–15 NBA Western 10th Pacific 3rd 39 43 .476 28 2015–16 NBA Western 14th Pacific 4th 23 59 .280 50
There's your real 6
Just to clarify...since you didn't include the headers...what the stat on the far right? In 2015-2016, it's 50.
Game behind division leader?
A parrot has more brain cells than Chicken aka Culburn
They were selling your .
Probably. The empty columns are the focal points. No post season... none. 6 ing years.
Pretty sure I see a MIP in one of those.
Last word on this, and I'm only really interested since I am a probability nerd because I used to play poker.
Since whoever made the graph's math was incomplete, it confused me what exactly he was doing. But I get it now. He was trying to calculate the prob of Manu splitting his FTs. What he forget to do was multiply the .1971 figure times 2. Splitting freethrows can materialize in two ways: Make first, miss second and vice versa, so the probability of Manu splitting was .3942. All the OP's graph did was give us the prob of a make and miss in that specific sequence. A split helps the Heat no matter what sequence it comes in.
DSF will still be stubborn and spin, because he hates losing to me, but there's no argument now. The graph's math was incomplete for the person wanted to calculate.
A two shot free-throw sequence can play out in the following ways: Make/Make, Make/Miss, Miss/Make, Miss/Miss. Using Manu's FT% of .73, we get:
.73x.73=.5329
.73x.27=.1971
.27x.73=.1971
.27x.27=.0729
When we add those 4 percentages up we get 100%, so we covered everything that can happen in a two shot FT sequence.
So in reality, the percentage of something going right for the Heat (anything other than 2 made FTs is advantageous to the Heat) when Manu first stepped to the line is about 46%. With Manu being a 73 percent shooter, he's not a big favorite to make two FTs in a row. And Kawhi is actually an underdog to do such (.63x.63=0.3969)
And the overall odds of something going right for the Heat in those two FT situations (.46x.3969) is 0.1825 or 18.25 percent.
So consider that, let's see the overall odds of events that had to go right for the Heat to be able to tie the game:
(.1825 x .375 [Lebron 3] x .41 [Allen 3] .26 x .26 [both o-boards])=.00189 or .189, about 525 to 1 odds. Factor in Parker's miss at the end (assuming he had a 30% chance to make it) and it's .132, about 750 to 1 odds.
Last edited by midnightpulp; 06-24-2016 at 12:07 AM.
Yeah..i dont care. But Ive noticed you been quite obsessed lately. Every post in every thread is about the Phoenix Suns.
Rememer what I told you:
How do my nuts taste Mr Clueless?
Yeah you care. You care more than almost anyone here.
If you say so!
Your boy who made that graphic ed up. Both you and I know it, but you're just too proud to admit it.How do my nuts taste Mr Clueless?
And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon
No, now youre just trying to post like me.
"Sometimes I dream....that he is me! Dont you see thats how I dream to be? Like DSF! If I could be like DSF!"
As I already taught you, this isnt an example of a discrete probability scenario because players arent coins or playing cards. Anxiety, fatigue and mental situations affect performance. Im going to shred your stupid "number crunching" once and for all with one question:
If the odds of the Warriors missing their final shots are so small as youre suggesting (1/1500), how is it even possible that the other team only made one shot during the same time period? It wasnt just one team that threw up nothing but bricks, every player except Kyrie Irving missed every shot attempt over the last 4:13. If the odds are so small that they would keep missing, what are the odds that BOTH teams would keep missing?
It's because fatigue, anxiety and PRESSURE affected performance. This is why this isnt a "die rolling" example. This is why youre an idiot.
Game. Set. Match.
The same logic applies to the Spurs missing shots, which was your main point where Spurs choked more than GSW.No, now youre just trying to post like me.
"Sometimes I dream....that he is me! Dont you see thats how I dream to be? Like DSF! If I could be like DSF!"
As I already taught you, this isnt an example of a discrete probability scenario because players arent coins or playing cards. Anxiety, fatigue and mental situations affect performance. Im going to shred your stupid "number crunching" once and for all with one question:
If the odds of the Warriors missing their final shots are so small as youre suggesting (1/1500), how is it even possible that the other team only made one shot during the same time period? It wasnt just one team that threw up nothing but bricks, every player except Kyrie Irving missed every shot attempt over the last 4:13. If the odds are so small that they would keep missing, what are the odds that BOTH teams would keep missing?
It's because fatigue, anxiety and PRESSURE affected performance. This is why this isnt a "die rolling" example. This is why youre an idiot.
Game. Set. Match.
The example MNP used remains consistent between the two scenarios, and have the same assumptions. You are attempting to applying one set of assumptions to one, but not to the other.
Sure, the best we can do is look at other teams in same situation (up by X with Y seconds to go) and see how they fared. Someone did a SQL query and determined teams in Spurs said position win ~99% of the time. Mind you thats not a probability, just an empirical fact.
I have no idea what the winning percentage of home teams when the game is tied with 4 minutes to go, but Im pretty positive its not ~99%.
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