The reason why you can't add up possessions like that is because they aren't IID variables. Humans are not coins. Yes, those guys individually have high ratings, but together is a different story. How will a passive Durant score? Or how will a Curry that has to be mindful of Durant score? How will Thompson who's the third or fourth option stay in rhythm? It's like you're on two different extremes right. On one hand, you are talking about it in the most superficial way possible (How can you stop all those players?) On the other hand, you're reducing them to data.
It's neither of those things. It's not about players, and it's not about sterilized stats. It's about buckets. It's about how to get as many buckets as you can and how to keep your opponent from getting them. OKC adding Durant helps them get buckets, but again only marginally. Because Durant isn't just taking Barnes' touches. He's taking Steph's and Klay's, too. And those were already efficient, so they don't count. What he's doing is dumping a 38-percent shooter's percentage up by one. Even if it's up by five, that still makes very little difference in the context of a game.
To get that marginal increase, they've sacrificed their best rim-protectors and rebounders. So opponent efficiency should increase as well. And they're second-chance points should as well. Which one is really bigger? I guess we're disagreeing there. But that is just general talk. The Spurs should be much better at getting buckets this year with a superior offensive player at the five and an improved 5-10. So they could see an even bigger increase in efficiency than the average team. And if they force the Warriors into becoming the KD Show, they have plenty of experience with that.
Nah. You're addressing it this way because that's how your data addresses it. The more credit you give to Durant, the more he affects the other Warriors. And not all of those effects are going to be positive for their production or efficiency, especially in the first season.