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  1. #1
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls

    There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days that his problems may be getting worse.

    The recent Fox News, Marist College and NBC News/Wall Street Journal national polls show Trump trailing Clinton by 9 to 14 percentage points, margins that would make for the largest general election blowout since 1984 if they held. Clinton’s numbers in those polls are on the high end of what we’ve seen lately — Marist, for instance, has generally had a Clinton-leaning house effect in its polls this year. By contrast, a series of polls released earlier in the week generally put Clinton’s advantage at 5 to 8 percentage points.

    The new polls are noteworthy, however, because they postdate the earlier surveys — Marist’s poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday, for instance. That opens up the possibility that the spiral of negative stories for Trump, such as his criticism of the family of a Muslim-American soldier killed in action and his renewed feud with GOP leadership, are deepening his problems above and beyond Clinton’s convention bounce. Not only have Clinton’s numbers risen since the Democratic National Convention, but Trump’s numbers have fallen back into the mid- to high 30s in polls that include third-party candidates. And Trump’s favorability ratings, following modest improvement after his convention, are now about as bad as they’ve ever been.

    Meanwhile, polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire — three swing states with demographics that, in theory, could be friendly to Trump — showed Clinton with leads of 9 percentage points, 11 points and 15 points, respectively. Those are big leads for Clinton, but they shouldn’t be all that surprising: The margins look a lot like the ones by which Barack Obama defeated John McCain in those states in 2008, an election he won by 7.3 percentage points overall. According to our now-cast, Clinton would defeat Trump by a similar margin nationally, 7.9 percentage points, in a hypothetical election held today. Compared with that new, higher baseline for Clinton, a Suffolk poll showing her “only” 4 points ahead of Trump in Florida, which would have looked like an excellent result for her a week ago, is middling.

    Overall, the now-cast estimates that Clinton’s electoral vote total, in an election held today, would be similar to the 365 electoral votes that Obama won in 2008. Although she’d be unlikely to carry Indiana, which Obama surprisingly won in 2008, she could make up for it by winning Arizona or Georgia, states that the now-cast has as tossups. Utah might even be compe ive in an election held today — and the now-cast thinks that Texas would produce a closer finish than Pennsylvania.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...pens-in-polls/

  2. #2
    Real Warrior Warlord23's Avatar
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    Ferret-top could have reined in his rhetoric, given up Twitter and read from teleprompters. But instead he opened his mouth and exhaled a blizzard of turd nuggets on the American public - which to his surprise isn't reacting the way the rabid GOP primary electorate did.

  3. #3
    Veteran InRareForm's Avatar
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    Hillary is leading by 4 in georgia

  4. #4
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Hillary is leading by 4 in georgia
    Yeah and AZ is a tossup. I don't know that this is a permanent thing but it's definitely a different world right now.

  5. #5
    Pronouns: Your/Dad TheGreatYacht's Avatar
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    Hillary up double digits on numerous reliable polls and is winning in deep red states.... This is getting ugly

  6. #6
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    Texas is going to be close, you heard it here first

  7. #7
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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    See last night they said she has so far spent 270 million

  8. #8
    Veteran
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    See last night they said she has so far spent 270 million
    That's throughout the primary season only.

    Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have spent $174 million and $202 million, respectively, or more than $376 million combined.

    But dont worry, she'll still outspent Trump just based on how much money she's outraising him by.

  9. #9
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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    Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Narrows to Less Than 3 Points

    Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

    About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.

  10. #10
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Narrows to Less Than 3 Points

    Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

    About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Clinton 46, Trump 39 Clinton +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Clinton 39, Trump 35, Johnson 12, Stein 5 Clinton +4
    Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton WXYZ-TV/Detroit Free Press Clinton 46, Trump 36 Clinton +10
    Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein WXYZ-TV/Detroit Free Press Clinton 43, Trump 32, Johnson 8, Stein 3 Clinton +11
    Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton Atlanta Journal-Cons ution Trump 40, Clinton 44 Clinton +4
    Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Atlanta Journal-Cons ution Trump 38, Clinton 41, Johnson 11, Stein 2 Clinton +3

  11. #11
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

    Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

    Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes 0.3%
    Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 4.1%
    Clinton wins popular vote 84.7%
    Trump wins popular vote 15.2%
    Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 4.0%
    Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.8%
    Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 3.1%
    Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 41.4%
    Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 2.8%
    Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 29.0%
    Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 1.1%
    Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.5%
    Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 82.6%
    Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 58.9%

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

  12. #12
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Trump in a slump

    Hillary Clinton’s surge in the polls over the past week has widened her path to victory in November and put Donald Trump in a deeper hole than recent losers Mitt Romney, John McCain or John Kerry faced at this phase of the campaign.

    Trump’s disastrous week — in which a series of controversial comments and inaccurate statements helped send the GOP presidential nominee spiraling downward in polls taken after the two national party conventions — has put him significantly behind his Democratic opponent. He now trails by about 7 percentage points in the national averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, and has been forced to play defense in a number of reliably Republican states.

    But for all the talk of Trump’s collapse, Clinton's post-convention bounce returns the race to roughly where it was before July — a month that began with FBI Director James Comey criticizing her “extremely careless” use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, even as Comey said the government shouldn’t charge Clinton criminally. Clinton has equaled her previous high-water mark in the RealClearPolitics average (6.8 points on June 28) and the HuffPost Pollster model (7.1 points on June 20).

    And that widening chasm between the candidates in national polls is playing out on the Electoral College map as well. As Clinton has pulled away from Trump overall, she’s moved traditional battleground states into her column. Clinton posted significant leads this week in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania — which would clinch the election for the Democrat, even if she lost the other seven states POLITICO has identified as battleground states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin).


    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...#ixzz4GaIhF9UQ

  13. #13
    Veteran Xevious's Avatar
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    Not only is Trump hurting himself by opening his mouth, his campaign seems to have no direction. Instead of trying to win over the battleground states (which Clinton currently holds all of) or winning back historically red states that are now being contested, he spends days campaigning in deep blue states he has absolutely no shot of winning.

  14. #14
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June.

    Clinton’s chances were buoyed by strong numbers in both national and state polling released this weekend:

    A new ABC News/Washington Post national poll published on Sunday showed Clinton up 8 percentage points among registered voters. Clinton’s lead jumped 4 points compared to the previous ABC News/Washington survey, conducted before the conventions.

    A Morning Consult poll, also published Sunday, also found Clinton up 8 points among registered voters. Clinton was up 5 percentage points in the same poll last weekend, conducted after both conventions. That is, Clinton’s post-convention surge has continued in Morning Consult’s polling.

    Two national tracking polls which have generally shown good numbers for Trump also found Clinton building or holding onto her post-convention bounce. Clinton led by 1 percentage point in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times survey, and by 6 points in the CVOTER International poll — both matching her largest leads from those pollsters.

    The only poll showing any real sign of decay in Clinton’s lead is the Ipsos tracking poll, which had Clinton up 2 percentage points as of Friday, down a few points from earlier in the week. For now, it is an outlier, and most polls have Clinton’s bounce holding or expanding.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...olding-steady/

  15. #15
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    but the polls are biased and are over-sampling Dems

    Signed,
    TSA and that homeschooler

  16. #16
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Ducks can spam the forum but I'll just keep this dose of reality bumped.

  17. #17
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Ferret-top could have reined in his rhetoric, given up Twitter and read from teleprompters. But instead he opened his mouth and exhaled a blizzard of turd nuggets on the American public - which to his surprise isn't reacting the way the rabid GOP primary electorate did.
    "ferret-top"

  18. #18
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Not only is Trump hurting himself by opening his mouth, his campaign seems to have no direction. Instead of trying to win over the battleground states (which Clinton currently holds all of) or winning back historically red states that are now being contested, he spends days campaigning in deep blue states he has absolutely no shot of winning.
    That is the part his supporters will have a harder, and harder time explaining.

    He is running his campaign the way he runs his business, and his campaign is a floundering mess.

    What does that say about how he will run things if he were to be president?

  19. #19
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    More fake and biased polls came out just now..

    The Monmouth University Poll released Monday had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...rops/88399152/

    TheSanityAnnex
    come tell us how these are skewed.

  20. #20
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    As Trump's Campaign Flounders, Hillary Clinton Dominates The National Ad War

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalko.../#5179a52638b3

  21. #21
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    U
    Ducks can spam the forum but I'll just keep this dose of reality bumped.
    Just make sure to bump this when ShillAdolphs numbers start dropping after the debates

  22. #22
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    It's hilarious to see liber s and neocons alike joined together already celebrating Clintlers presidency

    It's going to make it a lot more hilarious come November when Trump snatches the election from their very nose

  23. #23
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    More fake and biased polls came out just now..

    The Monmouth University Poll released Monday had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...rops/88399152/

    TheSanityAnnex
    come tell us how these are skewed.
    46-34 is registered. Likely voters with leaners pushed and she hits 50% while he is just 37% with all 4 candidates polled.

    but look at the crosstabs, 35-26 R vs. D

    His problem is he has not consolidated his own party and is no longer winning independents

    Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).

    Independents are divided between Trump (32%) and Clinton (30%). In the Monmouth poll taken before the two parties' conventions Trump held a 40% to 31% lead among this group.

  24. #24
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    But hey, look on the bright side Trumpsters, he's ahead in Utah again!


  25. #25
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ TheSanityAnnex's Avatar
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    More fake and biased polls came out just now..

    The Monmouth University Poll released Monday had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...rops/88399152/

    TheSanityAnnex
    come tell us how these are skewed.
    I never said all polls were fake or skewed, I gave a specific example of the Reuters poll, which you agreed was purposely skewed.

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