1. #33076
    non-essential Chris's Avatar
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    George talking out of his ass

  2. #33077
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I think the best shot for these (D) candidates is when Trump is dragging down their team. If Trump is polling well in any of these places, I expect them to win any close contests.
    Ernst was getting dragged down by McConnell, and she had a feel gaffes that made her vulnerable, namely her COVIDspiracy theory about inflated deaths.

    Will be interesting to see how some of these races play out. Greenfield was ahead in the polls but is losing momentum. Ossoff was behind in the polls to Perdue but has all the momentum in the world now.

  3. #33078
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    I think the best shot for these (D) candidates is when Trump is dragging down their team. If Trump is polling well in any of these places, I expect them to win any close contests.
    Biden’s being polling 2-3 points ahead in Iowa and so has Greenfield for a good bit. This one been the exception.

    This race is between a toss up and barely lean R. Greenfield definitely has a higher percentage of winning than does Biden though.

  4. #33079
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    There was even a good (but not great) pollster that had Greenfield 12 points up on Ernst in September.

    Worth noting that Seltzer was dead on in 2016 but was outside the MOE in its final 2018 gubernatorial poll.

  5. #33080
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Ernst was getting dragged down by McConnell, and she had a feel gaffes that made her vulnerable, namely her COVIDspiracy theory about inflated deaths.

    Will be interesting to see how some of these races play out. Greenfield was ahead in the polls but is losing momentum. Ossoff was behind in the polls to Perdue but has all the momentum in the world now.
    If that A+ poll that came out today in Iowa is to be believed, Trump has a +7 advantage and Ernst is going to benefit from it.

    Just calling it as I see it, tbh...

  6. #33081
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    ducks
    Thanks

  7. #33082
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    If that A+ poll that came out today in Iowa is to be believed, Trump has a +7 advantage and Ernst is going to benefit from it.

    Just calling it as I see it, tbh...
    If Trump is really 7 points up in Iowa it’s a red flag for Biden in the Midwest. Iowa isn’t THAT much more red than Wisconsin/Michigan, so if this poll is right it has implications that exceed just Iowa.

  8. #33083
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    If Trump is really 7 points up in Iowa it’s a red flag for Biden in the Midwest. Iowa isn’t THAT much more red than Wisconsin/Michigan, so if this poll is right it has implications that exceed just Iowa.
    I've been looking at some of the betting sites, like Predic , and they've had Iowa red for a bit now, while they have WI, MI, MN all blue. Not saying it's something conclusive, just adding to the picture.

    I mean, you know I mentioned my philosophy in this election is any place that's within the MoE goes to Trump, so this is basically coherent with that thinking.

  9. #33084
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I don’t think the poll is right though because Iowa’s first district isn’t 15 points in favor of Rs, it has a Dem house rep and is usually a tossup seat. My guess is that IA is Trump +2-3% with the senate race being a coin flip.

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    If Trump is really 7 points up in Iowa it’s a red flag for Biden in the Midwest. Iowa isn’t THAT much more red than Wisconsin/Michigan, so if this poll is right it has implications that exceed just Iowa.
    That's extreme.

    The onus is on Trump to carry a state he won by like 10 points in 2016. Suddenly Biden needing Iowa more than Trump is a real reach.

  11. #33086
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    That's extreme.

    The onus is on Trump to carry a state he won by like 10 points in 2016. Suddenly Biden needing Iowa more than Trump is a real reach.
    I don’t think he needs Iowa, I’m saying if he loses Iowa by 7 it’s suddenly not too distant from 2016 when Hillary lost it by 9 points. If Iowa is a close race but Biden still loses it, likely a non-issue. I was speaking to the scenario of him being down 7.

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    As an aside, it’s always going to baffle me how a black Ivy League liberal like Obama was able to master campaigning in Iowa at such an elite level where he won it by a sizeable margin in two elections.

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  14. #33089
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    trump gonna snatch this again. y’all didnt learn from hillary 4 years ago. same posters who thought dems was gonna win in a landslide are gonna be disappointed again

  15. #33090
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    I've been looking at some of the betting sites, like Predic , and they've had Iowa red for a bit now, while they have WI, MI, MN all blue. Not saying it's something conclusive, just adding to the picture.

    I mean, you know I mentioned my philosophy in this election is any place that's within the MoE goes to Trump, so this is basically coherent with that thinking.
    Triggered el wrongwrong votes. Loloolookkokl

  16. #33091
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    As an aside, it’s always going to baffle me how a black Ivy League liberal like Obama was able to master campaigning in Iowa at such an elite level where he won it by a sizeable margin in two elections.

  17. #33092
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  18. #33093
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    dude is tweaking on the good

  20. #33095
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    As an aside, it’s always going to baffle me how a black Ivy League liberal like Obama was able to master campaigning in Iowa at such an elite level where he won it by a sizeable margin in two elections.

    his campaign wrote the book on grass roots campaigning. Their ground game was revolutionary.

    everyone hated Hillary, and John edwards was about to take his great fall.

    they won by energizing people to believe that the r party wasn’t an authoritarian racist bag of cowardly s.

  21. #33096
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    his campaign wrote the book on grass roots campaigning. Their ground game was revolutionary.

    everyone hated Hillary, and John edwards was about to take his great fall.

    they won by energizing people to believe that the r party wasn’t an authoritarian racist bag of cowardly s.
    Obama also benefited from reaction against any Repug asshole, after 8 years of war criminals dubya/ head.

  22. #33097
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    Did i just see some report about trumps favorite doctor - granting an interview - from the White House...


    to RUSSIA?


    oh yeah (puts on russian lensed glasses)

    makes perfect sense - if you are working for Russia!

  23. #33098
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    Stanford study links

    18 Trump rallies to over 30,000 cases and 700 deaths:

    'Killing Americans' to 'serve his own ego'


    https://www.alternet.org/2020/11/sta...nd-700-deaths/



  24. #33099
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    The latest batch of swing state polls shows a healthy Biden lead

    To win, Trump needs a bigger polling error than in 2016.

    Trump is losing in the latest polls

    To sum it all up, here are the latest poll results:

    • Arizona: Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena)
    • Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44 (NYT/Siena)
    • Pennsylvania: Biden 49, Trump 43 (NYT/Siena)
    • Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 41 (NYT/Siena)
    • Iowa: Biden 41, Trump 48 (DMR/Selzer)
    • Pennsylvania:Biden 51, Trump 44 (Washington Post/ABC)
    • Florida: Biden 48, Trump 50 (Washington Post/ABC)


    https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/215442...-2020-election

  25. #33100
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    The latest batch of swing state polls shows a healthy Biden lead

    To win, Trump needs a bigger polling error than in 2016.

    https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/215442...-2020-election
    Spurtacular

    More bad news for you.

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