The judge in that case, T.S. Ellis III, gave Manafort’s defense a much-needed boost earlier this month by expressing skepticism about Mueller’s authority to pursue charges with no obvious connection to Russia.
Ellis, an appointee of President Ronald Reagan, seized on the fact that the alleged fraud in the Virginia case dated back to 2005, about a decade before the Trump campaign came into existence. That arguably makes the case more factually removed from Mueller’s central mandate.
Manafort could still lose his motion if Ellis agrees with Jackson that the special counsel regulations can’t be enforced by defendants or finds that Rosenstein approved an expansion of Mueller’s authority for the bank and tax fraud charges. Even if the judge does find a violation, it’s possible he won’t dismiss the case but will simply reassign it to federal prosecutors in Virginia.