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  1. #1
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Does anybody mind if I just donít do a thread for 2016-2017 at this point?

    Name 2017-18
    LaMarcus Aldridge $21,461,010
    Kawhi Leonard $18,868,625
    Pau Gasol $16,197,500
    Tony Parker $15,453,126
    Danny Green $10,000,000
    Patty Mills (HOLD) $6,800,001
    Dewayne Dedmon $8,406,000
    Tim Duncan (stretched) $1,881,250
    David Lee $3,290,000
    Kyle Anderson $2,151,704
    Dejounte Murray $1,312,611
    Livio Jean-Charles (waived) $1,035,200
    Jonathan Simmons (QO) $1,676,735
    Davis Bertans $1,312,611
    Bryn Forbes $1,312,611
    First-Rounder $1,697,225
    Milutinov? $1,832,075
    Second-Rounder $815,615
    Rookie $815,615
    Calculated Total $116,319,514
    Luxury Tax: $122,000,000
    Room Under Tax: $5,680,486

    So thatís the best Iíve come up with looking at the current salary estimates from Basketball Insiders, RealGM's projections for exceptions and holds under the new CBA and this article from the Washington Post detailing the new increases that either of the first two sources had. Hopefully, there aren't any increases that I missed, because the team really can't stand to have them.

    The $4.1 Million is the money the Spurs have to turn Pattyís and Simmonsí holds into real contracts. The outlook for them staying under the tax doesnít look great. The saving grace is that the team can get back a couple million by essentially keeping their final two guys in Austin and taking the low half of the split. However, you obviously want to budget for the worst-case scenario. The Spurs could also save $400k or so by stashing Milutinov another year and signing a min guy.
    As far as Leeís and Dedmonís salaries go, those are the just full MLE and full LLE. Even if itís not spent on those two guys specifically, those contract slots should be used. Losing one or both of them probably wonít change these numbers too much. In case people are wondering, the Spurs could opt to use cap space on Dedmon or a different player and use the room MLE on Lee or someone else, but the salary slots would only change by a million or so each, and it would come at the loss of Mills and Simmons. Probably would only happen in desperate measures.
    Also, Kyle and Murray are both actually getting boosts that wonít count against the cap. Murray will end up making almost $2 Million more. So good for them. Milutinovís increase WILL count against the cap whenever he signs, however, because the scale is based on the year you sign, not the year youíre drafted. Shame.

    Still paying homage to Brunoís old threads:

    The Luxury Tax:

    What is the luxury tax?
    The luxury tax is a mechanism whose first goal is to reduce the differences between the richest and the poorest franchises by penalizing teams that overspend the others teams. Penalties have considerably raise with the new CBA to make it very expensive for teams to go way over the luxury tax threshold.
    For more details, check Larry Coon's CBA FAQ .

    The triple penalty system:
    A team above the tax is three time penalized. First, they had to pay the luxury tax. Second, they don't get a share of the luxury tax money given by the NBA to teams. Third, it makes it more likely to have to pay the repeater tax in the future.
    The last two effects push teams that are just above the tax threshold to go under it.
    Last edited by Chinook; 02-26-2017 at 01:29 AM.

  2. #2
    Klaw apalisoc_9's Avatar
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    Do First and Second Rounders get accounted for in the cap if they are stashed?
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  3. #3
    Klaw apalisoc_9's Avatar
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    Also, I am 100 sure Simmons is a gonner. He's a RFA that would get about 5-7 a year. PATFO is not going to pay that kind of money for him.

  4. #4
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Do First and Second Rounders get accounted for in the cap if they are stashed?
    They don't, but the second-rounder is only a min deal, so it can't go away. If anything, it would go up if the Spurs signed a vet with the money. It would actually cost money to replace that with a vet. Speaking of that, I was actually off on my numbers for the second rounder and rookie slots. The hold is $815,615, not $1,471,382, also Forbes and Bertans should count as $1,312,611 each. All that gives the team like $1.5 Million in extra space. Not nothing, considering how tight they are. Between that and keeping the split guys in Austin most of the year, they probably have enough to give Simmons and Patty pretty decent contracts.
    Also, I am 100 sure Simmons is a gonner. He's a RFA that would get about 5-7 a year. PATFO is not going to pay that kind of money for him.
    I would agree normally. But him and Manu walking with no one Murray, picks and min contracts to replace them would be hard to imagine. Moving on from Simmons would give the Spurs another $800k or so, which makes it completely possible to keep Mills.

  5. #5
    ( ē_ē)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) AaronY's Avatar
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    How much is the MLE gonna be?
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  6. #6
    Klaw apalisoc_9's Avatar
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    They don't, but the second-rounder is only a min deal, so it can't go away. If anything, it would go up if the Spurs signed a vet with the money. It would actually cost money to replace that with a vet. Speaking of that, I was actually off on my numbers for the second rounder and rookie slots. The hold is $815,615, not $1,471,382, also Forbes and Bertans should count as $1,312,611 each. All that gives the team like $1.5 Million in extra space. Not nothing, considering how tight they are. Between that and keeping the split guys in Austin most of the year, they probably have enough to give Simmons and Patty pretty decent contracts.


    I would agree normally. But him and Manu walking with no one Murray, picks and min contracts to replace them would be hard to imagine. Moving on from Simmons would give the Spurs another $800k or so, which makes it completely possible to keep Mills.
    Makes sense. I do think the spurs will try to keep simmons if they can get him below 7 million dollars, because there is zero difference really in a 5 million dollar capsapce and an 8 million. None of the players available at the start of the season will accept that cheap money. Maybe its useful for a mid-seasom trade but the spurs MO is always to try to complete the team at the start of the season.

    That 800k won't make a difference.

    Likely, they draft an SG..according to scouts, there's Gems around the 20th-35th draft.

    - Increase simmons and Murray playtime by 5 minutes each and just increase Leonard's workload..

    I suspect they will be operating under the cap next year to give them room for flexibility mid-season and the season after.

    -

  7. #7
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    How much is the MLE gonna be?
    Like $8.4 Million. The exact number is in the "Dedmon" slot.

  8. #8
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Makes sense. I do think the spurs will try to keep simmons if they can get him below 7 million dollars, because there is zero difference really in a 5 million dollar capsapce and an 8 million. None of the players available at the start of the season will accept that cheap money. Maybe its useful for a mid-seasom trade but the spurs MO is always to try to complete the team at the start of the season.

    That 800k won't make a difference.

    Likely, they draft an SG..according to scouts, there's Gems around the 20th-35th draft.

    - Increase simmons and Murray playtime by 5 minutes each and just increase Leonard's workload..

    I suspect they will be operating under the cap next year to give them room for flexibility mid-season and the season after.

    -
    I think the new CBA combined with how underwhelming the new TV deal has been is going to screw the Spurs. The cap in 2018-2019 is projected only rise by a million or two. While Pau and Tony will fall off the books, with Green likely either opting in or re-signing and LMA potentially doing the same, guys like Mills and Dedmon may really damage the cap. When you add up those guys, you get something like $70-80 Million already tied up. And that's still a conservative estimate. Unless Anderson and/or Bertans become high-dollar guys, they likely will have cap space. But it could easily be like it was this past summer where the team pretty much stayed the course.

    If they plan to use real cap space next summer, they'll likely be letting Mills, Simmons, Lee walk, if not Dedmon. Maybe Lee would take a one-year deal and Simmons takes a one-and-one to prove himself. But if they want to be even mildly competitive next season, they may not have a choice but to spend

  9. #9
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    Also, I am 100 sure Simmons is a gonner. He's a RFA that would get about 5-7 a year. PATFO is not going to pay that kind of money for him.
    I tenD to agree but then he looks to be easier to retain than a guy like Mills.

  10. #10
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
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    Great work Chinook.

    It seems more and more likely the Spurs will stay over the cap and use the MLE and LLE to work with. Teams will have much less money to spend compared to last summer, especially with the increased values of rookie and min deals, so I don't expect to see that much player movement and it might also mean some decent players will have to accept lesser deals. A lot of teams will be unsure how the market projects in the next couple of seasons before it settles and may make costly mistakes.

    In the described scenario I don't see the Spurs spending the LLE on Lee, as Bertans could and should be promoted to the 4th big slot and the Spurs would have a bigger need in the backcourt with Manu possibly retiring and the likeliness that they couldn't keep both Simmons and Mills.

    There's one more winkle, the plan for 2018 cap space doesn't look good, so if they scratch it they could create some cap space this summer by Pau opting out and signing a 2-year contract for less money. Unlikely, but still a possibility.

  11. #11
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    They don't, but the second-rounder is only a min deal, so it can't go away. If anything, it would go up if the Spurs signed a vet with the money. It would actually cost money to replace that with a vet. Speaking of that, I was actually off on my numbers for the second rounder and rookie slots. The hold is $815,615, not $1,471,382, also Forbes and Bertans should count as $1,312,611 each. All that gives the team like $1.5 Million in extra space. Not nothing, considering how tight they are. Between that and keeping the split guys in Austin most of the year, they probably have enough to give Simmons and Patty pretty decent contracts.


    I would agree normally. But him and Manu walking with no one Murray, picks and min contracts to replace them would be hard to imagine. Moving on from Simmons would give the Spurs another $800k or so, which makes it completely possible to keep Mills.
    Frankly I doubt they retain both Mills and Simmons. One of them walks and I go back and forth between them on who I think Spurs would spare. I initially thought Mills is more important but then he wants to start, and he probably will get sizable offers due to his production this season and through his career, and bc of the Spurs su ious Plan B in Bryn Forbes who seems like insurance in case he walks.

    They also have someone in Murray that can give you many similar things to Simmons taking into account some player development (and may be even better long term).

    OTOH Simms looks to be the guy easier to retain bc he's a RFA and his poor shooting likely decreases the market for him. The point is though that I really doubt they can do both though, specially if they retain Dedmon.

    Then it looks to me like Dedmon might actually be the casualty, bc 8 mill doesn't seem enough for a guy like him if it were to become evident that he could be starting in this league. Then you factor in Lee coming back too and it's tough to say bc of Davis. If Spurs want to open up playing time for Davis retaining this exact big rotation doesn't make sense either.

    Although probably controversial, I think Kyle is a rotation player too in the right situation. Whether that's the Spurs or somewhere else who knows but he has lately been playing well and is also a casualty of lack of opportunities bc of a set rotation ahead of him.

    Getting real production from Davis, Kyle, and Murray will go a long way towards allowing the Spurs to make choices in who to pay to fill up their holes. They won't be able to pay everyone. Some of the estimates there are too low.

  12. #12
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    I think the new CBA combined with how underwhelming the new TV deal has been is going to screw the Spurs. The cap in 2018-2019 is projected only rise by a million or two. While Pau and Tony will fall off the books, with Green likely either opting in or re-signing and LMA potentially doing the same, guys like Mills and Dedmon may really damage the cap. When you add up those guys, you get something like $70-80 Million already tied up. And that's still a conservative estimate. Unless Anderson and/or Bertans become high-dollar guys, they likely will have cap space. But it could easily be like it was this past summer where the team pretty much stayed the course.

    If they plan to use real cap space next summer, they'll likely be letting Mills, Simmons, Lee walk, if not Dedmon. Maybe Lee would take a one-year deal and Simmons takes a one-and-one to prove himself. But if they want to be even mildly competitive next season, they may not have a choice but to spend
    I doubt Simms takes a one and one just no way...

  13. #13
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    Unloading Pau would seem to free up a lot of cap space. Would seem to allow us to plug more holes with quality than losing him would create.

  14. #14
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    I doubt Simms takes a one and one just no way...
    I could Brooklyn going after him, they have at least $30 million and are in desperate need of actually NBA players. Mills would probably also make sense for them too. I'm okay with Simmons walking if the Spurs can retain Mills and Dedmon. Anderson still can't shoot but can fill minutes on the wing, though i;d prefer him at the four.

    Mills,
    Murray/Forbes
    Anderson
    Lee/Bertans
    Dedmon/ Gasol (whichever doesn't start)

    would probably be the bench unit next season.
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  15. #15
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    I could Brooklyn going after him, they have at least $30 million and are in desperate need of actually NBA players. Mills would probably also make sense for them too. I'm okay with Simmons walking if the Spurs can retain Mills and Dedmon. Anderson still can't shoot but can fill minutes on the wing, though i;d prefer him at the four.

    Mills,
    Murray/Forbes
    Anderson
    Lee/Bertans
    Dedmon/ Gasol (whichever doesn't start)

    would probably be the bench unit next season.
    They could draft a wing, bring up Hanga (can't shoot either but neither can Simmons and he will get paid). I would rather they got someone who could shoot bc Ginobili has been shooting well and once he retires you'd lose a lot of shooting and spacing in the bench. However, if you switch Lee with Davis Bertans you have an extra shooter playing that isn't in the regular rotation right now. So as much as fans love Lee I wonder about his fit long term. He's blocking Davis from playing time. Maybe the Spurs keep Davis as the 5th big a second season but they need his shooting and he's played well, so I find it tough to keep both Dedmon and Lee and let both Mills and Simmons walk. The team is already frontcourt heavy and will be even more so.
    Last edited by SAGirl; 02-27-2017 at 01:46 PM.

  16. #16
    txstbobcat TXstbobcat's Avatar
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    Unloading Pau would seem to free up a lot of cap space. Would seem to allow us to plug more holes with quality than losing him would create.
    Pau has said that he is opting in to his player option for next season.

  17. #17
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    Thanks for this. Been eagerly waiting for a centralized place for this discussion. This summer looks tricky.

    Couple questions about the mechanics of improving the roster:

    1. Does Manu have a hold until he decides to retire (assuming he hangs them up)?

    2. Based on the math above, do we have a sense of what would be too rich to keep Mills?

    3. Is there any upside to operating under the cap as opposed to using the exceptions? In other words, would "refinancing" Pau for a 30/3 deal with first year starting at 9m help? I'm assuming in that scenario that both DD and Gasol opt out creating about 19m in space, and that Mills takes a lucrative offer elsewhere.

  18. #18
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    The other approach is to re-sign your guys and move them for assets at a future time. For example, Simmons or Lee on good contracts might be able to fetch a nice peice or pick at next year's trade deadline.

    The other peice is Green. He's very valuable for the team as constructed, but i wonder if he's not a peice to move sooner rather than later to maximize possible return and ensure 2018 flexibility.
    Last edited by CGD; 02-26-2017 at 01:10 PM.

  19. #19
    Electric LA Land BillMc's Avatar
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    Really nice work OP!

  20. #20
    Veteran sasaint's Avatar
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    Pau has said that he is opting in to his player option for next season.
    I think he means by "unloading" trading Pau once he has opted in. In the Forum there has also been some discussion that, assuming it was mutually agreeable, Pau might be persuaded to opt out and later sign a contract for more years but less money per year.

  21. #21
    txstbobcat TXstbobcat's Avatar
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    I think he means by "unloading" trading Pau once he has opted in. In the Forum there has also been some discussion that, assuming it was mutually agreeable, Pau might be persuaded to opt out and later sign a contract for more years but less money per year.
    I like that idea of saving some cap space by giving Pau less per year for additional years.

  22. #22
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    I think he means by "unloading" trading Pau once he has opted in. In the Forum there has also been some discussion that, assuming it was mutually agreeable, Pau might be persuaded to opt out and later sign a contract for more years but less money per year.
    This.

  23. #23
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    Thanks for this. Been eagerly waiting for a centralized place for this discussion. This summer looks tricky.

    Couple questions about the mechanics of improving the roster:

    1. Does Manu have a hold until he decides to retire (assuming he hangs them up)?

    2. Based on the math above, do we have a sense of what would be too rich to keep Mills?

    3. Is there any upside to operating under the cap as opposed to using the exceptions? In other words, would "refinancing" Pau for a 30/3 deal with first year starting at 9m help? I'm assuming in that scenario that both DD and Gasol opt out creating about 19m in space, and that Mills takes a lucrative offer elsewhere.
    In regards to #1, there is a hold, and it is still there even if he does retire. We would have to relinquish our rights to him to eliminate the hold.

  24. #24
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    I'm thinking they find a way to bring everyone back, pick a SG/SF in the draft, and, depending on how the playoffs go, explore shopping LMA, assets like Simmons/Mills, and getting something for Kyle by the next trade deadline.

  25. #25
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    I'm thinking they find a way to bring everyone back, pick a SG/SF in the draft, and, depending on how the playoffs go, explore shopping LMA, assets like Simmons/Mills, and getting something for Kyle by the next trade deadline.
    With all of those changes you suggest they will make, it hardly loooks like bringing everyone back... hardly.

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