Steel and aluminum tariffs...

[RandomGuy]

FWIW. I have a firm that does my marketing for me. I was feeling heavily oversold on soybeans. We talked about tariffs on southerns a few weeks ago and she replied it would be unfortunate (we all knew it was coming, US doesn't make anything worthwhile to China outside of Ag) but much needed in the long run. Her firm is one of the more successful ones and she is one of the better ones at that location.

I saw a market experts story on it this morning, he brought up that no date was mentioned to enact the tariff and China has started they will continue to buy.


So they just cut themselves a big coupon on the products they want to buy.

Pretty much.

Same thing happened on steel tariffs. Markets acted almost instantly as if prices were already worked in, even though the tariffs aren't actually in effect.

Trump is going to push for a better bargaining position, hopefully realize his hand is weaker than he thought it was, and parade around the minor concessions he is going to get as a win, long before he pulls the trigger. This is a bluff, IMO.

Trump voters will then be brainwashed into thinking that the field goal was a 99 yard touchdown by the sympathetic state-owned media.

China for its part has come out and said that the targets of their sanctions will be the red states that voted for Trump.

[sickdsm]

Pretty much.

Same thing happened on steel tariffs. Markets acted almost instantly as if prices were already worked in, even though the tariffs aren't actually in effect.

Trump is going to push for a better bargaining position, hopefully realize his hand is weaker than he thought it was, and parade around the minor concessions he is going to get as a win, long before he pulls the trigger. This is a bluff, IMO.

Trump voters will then be brainwashed into thinking that the field goal was a 99 yard touchdown by the sympathetic state-owned media.

China for its part has come out and said that the targets of their sanctions will be the red states that voted for Trump.

Brazil hurt just as bad. They buy off the Chicago board just like us. This is the time of year China switches to buying the South America crop.


I'm actually short quite a bit on beans. Limit down makes me more money than limit up.

[RandomGuy]

Brazil hurt just as bad. They buy off the Chicago board just like us. This is the time of year China switches to buying the South America crop.


I'm actually short quite a bit on beans. Limit down makes me more money than limit up.

Congrats. Lot of money to be made in volatility to be sure, good to see you are benefitting. (no sarcasm, meant sincerely)

[sickdsm]

Congrats. Lot of money to be made in volatility to be sure, good to see you are benefitting. (no sarcasm, meant sincerely)

Wasn't trying to justify my own position. Was just implying that it doesn't mean everyone benefits from high prices. China announced a big soybean order today. Was probably bought yesterday. Most likely they will cancel that order and rebuy. Very typical for them to do that with no repercussions. They don't play fair. Do you believe that everyone should be able to do that?

[RandomGuy]

Wasn't trying to justify my own position. Was just implying that it doesn't mean everyone benefits from high prices. China announced a big soybean order today. Was probably bought yesterday. Most likely they will cancel that order and rebuy. Very typical for them to do that with no repercussions. They don't play fair. Do you believe that everyone should be able to do that?

Cancel order and rebuy?

Sooner or later fewer will be willing to sell to them without a locked in price.

Markets have a way of punishing bad actors with negative feedback like that.

Don't really have enough information to meaningfully comment other than that.

Short term, based on your description: Sure. let them play unfair, see how that plays out.

Long-term: Address it somehow.

Not overly confident in that response, given lack of information though.

[RandomGuy]

Managed trade is a mistake, not a victory. It subs utes the power of political lobbies for market forces, favouring loud, well-organised producers over silent, disparate consumers and robbing economies of the nimbleness needed to adapt to changing technological conditions. Other countries will feel freer to follow America’s example, making a trade war a repeated risk rather than a one-off danger. Mr Trump’s approach threatens to leave everyone much worse off. Some deal.

https://www.economist.com/news/leade...f-america-wins

[sickdsm]

Cancel order and rebuy?

Sooner or later fewer will be willing to sell to them without a locked in price.

Markets have a way of punishing bad actors with negative feedback like that.

Don't really have enough information to meaningfully comment other than that.

Short term, based on your description: Sure. let them play unfair, see how that plays out.

Long-term: Address it somehow.

Not overly confident in that response, given lack of information though.

That's clearly a misinformed, jumping to conclusion, making up stuff post.


This isn't your supplier for dishrags at Walmart. This is China. You do realize they don't respect patents, right? I can buy a small engine, interchange parts with a Honda, and get it for pennies on the dollar. You REALLY are that clueless to assume that if China doesn't play fair we just stop dealing with them. There's so many examples of the BS. You said yourself, Longterm, address it somehow. Sounds like your for fixing the problem, you just want a D to be the one to do it?

The China situation is ALOT like N.Korea. Its a ty deal but previous decades of presidents just keep kicking the can down the road. Eventually it has to be fixed, maintain the course can send you into an iceberg.

Also similar to the health care debacle. Will give Obama credit for attempting to do something, even though he made it worse. At least he tried.

[boutons_deux]

Also similar to the health care debacle. Will give Obama credit for attempting to do something, even though he made it worse. At least he tried.

Obama didn't "make it worse" for the Ms of people who got access to health care.

ACA took a year, had 100+ amendments from Repugs and lobbyists to weaken it, then Repugs refused to vote for it, then got oligarchy's SCOTUS to make Medicaid expansion optional. And Obama NEVER had a veto proof Senate

[sickdsm]

Obama didn't "make it worse" for the Ms of people who got access to health care.

ACA took a year, had 100+ amendments from Repugs and lobbyists to weaken it, then Repugs refused to vote for it, then got oligarchy's SCOTUS to make Medicaid expansion optional. And Obama NEVER had a veto proof Senate

What about the M's that got ed on their healthcare? Paying over $1500 k/month for a young healthy family for garbage coverage? the self employed and their employees, amirite?

[RandomGuy]

[what's your opinion on this thing you have never heard of, here is my two sentence explanation]

[I don't know enough to render an informed opinion, here is a good faith attempt to offer an opinion based on your two sentence explanation]

That's clearly a misinformed, jumping to conclusion, making up stuff post.

No , Sherlock.

[RandomGuy]

bla bla bla problems bla bla bla iceberg Obama bad arglebargle.

... and that ends that brief interlude of 1/2way reasonable discussion. It was nice while it lasted.

[RandomGuy]

What about the M's that got ed on their healthcare? Paying over $1500 k/month for a young healthy family for garbage coverage? the self employed and their employees, amirite?

What about the people who get no healthcare because of the way we ration it?

[Pavlov]

Problem is the stock market reacts to rumors and news as much as actual laws

It is alteady down 400 today as I predicted. I dont see it recovering that by end of the day

Where is the Dow now?

[clambake]

Where is the Dow now?

lol

[spurraider21]

Where is the Dow now?

trump fixed it

[boutons_deux]

What about the M's that got ed on their healthcare? Paying over $1500 k/month for a young healthy family for garbage coverage? the self employed and their employees, amirite?

garbage coverage, catastrophe policies were banned.

Some people got screwed, but not nearly as many as those who got unscrewed and got health care.

Like any large, complex program covering 10Ms of people like ACA, there will be anomalies, even screw jobs, but Repugs were thrilled that some people got screwed by ACA and blocked ALL attempts at remedies, amirite?

Programs like that need fixing, tinkering, improving, continuosly, just ask any other country with national health care system.

[boutons_deux]

Farmers and business groups warn trade war with China will wreck Trump country: ‘This has to stop’President Donald

Trump is scaring the agricultural and manufacturing sectors of the economy as the United States and China outline detailed plans for sweeping tariffs.

China’s threatened retaliation against last night’s U.S. tariff proposal is testing

both the patience and optimism of families who are facing the worst agricultural economy in 16 years.

This has to stop.”

Soybean farmers in Iowa worry about long-term damage from Trump’s trade war.

“Short term, the volley of proposed tariffs between the countries will negatively impact soybean prices,”

the Iowa Soybean Association said in a statement.

“Long-term, an ongoing trade dispute with China risks stoking anti-Americanism sentiment that could

jeopardize the strength of trade relations between the two countries –

relationships that have taken U.S. soybean farmers nearly 35 years to develop.”

“We have already seen soybean futures down nearly 40 cents as of this morning,” says Minnesota Soybean CEO Tom Slunecka.

“That’s more than a billion dollars lost in value for our crop just this morning.

unilaterally imposing $50 billion of new tariffs without a long-term strategy that leads to economic reforms in China will only hurt America’s businesses, workers, and families.”

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/farmers-business-groups-warn-trade-war-china-will-wreck-trump-country-stop/

hee ing larious.

These rural and business types voted for Trash, now he's screwing them, costing them money and jobs.

[pgardn]

Ahhh who cares.
Crush a few farmers. Trump family does not farm. A guy loses his apple crop for a season or two, so what...
There is a bigger lesson. So let our tremendous exporting ability in crops take the hit, they can handle it. Amirite?

So everyone sleep tight. No biggy.

[sickdsm]

garbage coverage, catastrophe policies were banned.

Some people got screwed, but not nearly as many as those who got unscrewed and got health care.

Like any large, complex program covering 10Ms of people like ACA, there will be anomalies, even screw jobs, but Repugs were thrilled that some people got screwed by ACA and blocked ALL attempts at remedies, amirite?

Programs like that need fixing, tinkering, improving, continuosly, just ask any other country with national health care system.

Yet here I sit with a catastrophe coverage.


Bou eating that up with a side of ketchup.

[sickdsm]

What about the people who get no healthcare because of the way we ration it?

What about the ones that pay fo it through the nose because, what if we had cancer? Then doctor visits and prescriptions get to expensive so they rarely go?

[sickdsm]

No , Sherlock.

There's a difference between having a discussion where someone is not that well informed on the situation but conveys their point across and what you did. You don't just pat China on the nose like a dog and tell them to behave.

I used other examples like healthcare and NK because YOU freely admitted you didn't understand the situation.

[boutons_deux]

Yet here I sit with a catastrophe coverage.


Bou eating that up with a side of ketchup.

at the your Repugs. They have every intention of making ACA, and health coverage, much worse for 10Ms of people.

[sickdsm]

at the your Repugs. They have every intention of making ACA, and health coverage, much worse for 10Ms of people.

Unlike your ass I actually put my money where my mouth is. I have called all my congressman's offices and told them I will vote and in bent out until this gets fixed (all three are republicans)

[boutons_deux]

Unlike your ass I actually put my money where my mouth is. I have called all my congressman's offices and told them I will vote and in bent out until this gets fixed (all three are republicans)

silly er pissing into the wind, Repugs are going to BREAK health coverage even more for the individual market, NEVER fix it.

Your "mouthful of money" will have to be $10Ks in cash in contributions to each of the Repugs so they even recognize you exist, but they won't fix your problem.

[boutons_deux]

TX Trash fellators, for whom Trash is "man's kickass, pussy-grabbing Godly man", worried that he's screwing them, too

Texas cattle ranchers uneasy over proposed Chinese tariffs on beef

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04...-tariffs-beef/