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  1. #676
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Sugus

    The Lou comp was a very loose one. Main parallel I drew between the two was that they both shoot 3s and can get on very good streaks with 3s. Also, both don't really look for contact on offense. Just a loose comp overall.

  2. #677
    Believe.
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    Lonnie is not really in a contract year. Yes he can get an extension at the end of this one but he has a Team option for the 21-22 season. It is like White who has a team option for this year. If they Spurs do no reach an agreement with him White would still be a Spur for 20-21 and then have a QO for the 21-22 season.

  3. #678
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    I don't like the Lou Will comp because Will is an absolute sieve defensively, to the point that he can't really be played at the end of close, important games, because any competent ball-handling scorer like LeBron or Harden is gonna hunt him down and switch on him to and back. I think Lonnie showed, in spurts through the season, a higher defensive ceiling. But as with most of his game, it's theoretical at this point, with a lot of questions up in the air.
    Good point about Lou being unplayable late. In those types of games your defense is only as strong as your weakest defender, and having Forbes on the floor just made things unbearable.

  4. #679
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    Sugus

    The Lou comp was a very loose one. Main parallel I drew between the two was that they both shoot 3s and can get on very good streaks with 3s. Also, both don't really look for contact on offense. Just a loose comp overall.
    Haha, no quarrel. I see what you meant now. I'd say that Lonnie's other-wordly first step and athleticism are also a separation from a Lou Will kind of player, and also what gives me hope that Walker's ceiling is beyond a mere "starting SG" if he truly puts it together. A good comparison, IMO, that I saw during the bubble, was Jamal Murray. Both him and Lonnie are (relatively) short, have a good shooting stroke, deceitful athleticism, good distribution skills (I'm assuming here that Lonnie grows on his bubble passing display), and a quickness that makes guarding them so difficult. Of course, Jamal has the much better handles, moves, and iso-shooting right now, but I came up with it on a whim and it stuck with me.

    Good point about Lou being unplayable late. In those types of games your defense is only as strong as your weakest defender, and having Forbes on the floor just made things unbearable.
    Exactly - the chain principle. It's especially true in the modern NBA, where players are switching on literally every possession under most defensive schemes, and the impact that a single good-to-great defender has on a team's defense is overshadowed by the impact a bad-to-awful defender has on that same lineup. Yesteryear, you could truly have a "defensive specialist" who you'd assign on the other teams' best players and call it a day. Nowadays, they'll just switch off that great defender, limiting his impact to mostly help defense. It's interesting for sure, and has had a big impact in how (smart) teams build their roster, and the general trend that non-star players are on average much more skilled and better defenders than in years past.

    Now Forbes, he's just unplayable anywhere outside of a bench/third stringer lineup. You don't even have to wait until the end of the game to see the other team mismatch-hunting him. Lol.....

  5. #680
    Veteran J_Paco's Avatar
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    On the contrary, i thought he had a poor regular season and an impressive bubble season.

    And is it impressive that he's working his ass off right now? Or could he just be doing it because it's a contract year?

    For the record, im not too down on him. He's my 3rd most valuable young guy behind White and Keldon.

    If he turns out to be one of Lou Will, Stevie Franchise, and Baron Davis.... That's a uva valuable asset. Steve was an all star, and so was Baron I think.
    I think the Spurs have a fourth & fifth year option, gonna double check, and then he'd be restricted so not sure where the belief that he might be working hard only for a new contract (or extension) comes from?

    I also don't see a lot of those three guards in Lonnie's game. I believe he's an inch or two taller than all three plus his three - point shot is far, far past their's (in similar age).

    He could be anything from a Jeremy Lamb as his floor to Zach Lavine but with better defense. It'll all depend on how he learns & progresses these next few seasons and if Pop begins to truly trust him.

  6. #681
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I think the Spurs have a fourth & fifth year option, gonna double check, and then he'd be restricted so not sure where the belief that he might be working hard only for a new contract (or extension) comes from?

    I also don't see a lot of those three guards in Lonnie's game. I believe he's an inch or two taller than all three plus his three - point shot is far, far past their's (in similar age).

    He could be anything from a Jeremy Lamb as his floor to Zach Lavine but with better defense. It'll all depend on how he learns & progresses these next few seasons and if Pop begins to truly trust him.
    Reason I chose those guys is I dont think Lonnie is as tall as he's listed. He's always looked short on my TV. He's stocky like both Steve and Baron and both can really jump like Lonnie. Is Lonnie really that much better in 3s at this age? He's still pretty streaky and hasn't proven he's a sharp shooting ace just yet. It's all just potential so far.

  7. #682
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I think the Spurs have a fourth & fifth year option, gonna double check, and then he'd be restricted so not sure where the belief that he might be working hard only for a new contract (or extension) comes from?

    I also don't see a lot of those three guards in Lonnie's game. I believe he's an inch or two taller than all three plus his three - point shot is far, far past their's (in similar age).

    He could be anything from a Jeremy Lamb as his floor to Zach Lavine but with better defense. It'll all depend on how he learns & progresses these next few seasons and if Pop begins to truly trust him.


    That's Landry Shamet on the right, listed at 6'4". It's RJ Hampton on the left who has been listed at 6'5", but I doubt he's really that either.

  8. #683
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    Landry Shamet again

    I'd say Lonnie is definitely not 6'5", 30% he's 6'4", and 70% 6'3".

    Look especially how much lower his shoulders are next to Landry



    Derrick White consistently looks taller than Lonnie in photos

    I think they really did things up measuring him because of his hair
    Last edited by Dejounte; 10-28-2020 at 06:26 AM.

  9. #684
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Walker was officially measured at the combine, so we do know he is at least 6-4.5 and might've grown. The Spurs premeasured before the season and got 6-5. I can't say that those other players did not grow or what they're measured at. One thing about Lonnie is that it's hard to find pictures of him when he's not slouching or leaning. Especially for a guy who has considerable height in his neck, that can make him seem a variety of heights. In most pictures with Murray, Lonnie looks to be basically as tall, but next to Johnson, he is noticeably shorter. That would put him in the 6-5-in-shoes category (Murray is 6-4 and Keldon 6-6 and maybe growing?)

    Still, Walker's standing reach is 8-3.5, which is the shortest of the young perimeter players of note. For perspective, Murray is first with 8-7.5, Johnson next with 8-7 and White next with 8-5.5. In that way, Walker seems noticeably smaller than his counter parts. In others like wing-span and girth, Walker is one of the bigger ones.

    As far as hair goes, I have had some form of afro since I was in the fourth grade. People overestimated how much of my height came from my hair, often by three or four inches. People's heads aren't flat above their hair lines. Obviously we all know that, but people don't take into account that a round and uniform 'fro on the outside is not made up of hair the same distance from the skull. The hair on the top of the head is more compact/shorter. That's a long-winded way of saying Walker's height might be underestimated because of how tall his hair was. Obviously, it did add to his height, and more than my hair did for me, but he also has a few inches of head that is still there.
    Last edited by Chinook; 10-28-2020 at 09:03 AM.

  10. #685
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Walker was officially measured at the combine, so we do know he is at least 6-4.5 and might've grown. The Spurs premeasured before the season and got 6-5. I can't say that those other players did not grow or what they're measured at. One thing about Lonnie is that it's hard to find pictures of him when he's not slouching or leaning. Especially for a guy who has considerable height in his neck, that can make him seem a variety of heights. In most pictures with Murray, Lonnie looks to be basically as tall, but next to Johnson, he is noticeably shorter. That would put him in the 6-5-in-shoes category (Murray is 6-4 and Keldon 6-6 and maybe growing?)

    Still, Walker's standing reach is 8-3.5, which is the shortest of the young perimeter players of note. For perspective, Murray is first with 8-7.5, Johnson next with 8-7 and White next with 8-5.5. In that way, Walker seems noticeably smaller than his counter parts. In others like wing-span and girth, Walker is one of the bigger ones.

    As far as hair goes, I have had some form of afro since I was in the fourth grade. People overestimated how much of my height came from my hair, often by three or four inches. People's heads aren't flat above their hair lines. Obviously we all know that, but people don't take into account that a round and uniform 'fro on the outside is not made up of hair the same distance from the skull. The hair on the top of the head is more compact/shorter. That's a long-winded way of saying Walker's height might be underestimated because of how tall his hair was. Obviously, it did add to his height, and more than my hair did for me, but he also has a few inches of head that is still there.
    I was aware of his combine measurements.

    Combine measurements for White w/o shoes: 6'3.25"
    https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2017-18

    For Lonnie w/o shoes: 6'3.75"
    https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2018-19

    No way Lonnie is taller than White as these numbers indicate.

    No way White grew, he was already 22.

    Even outside of photos and in real time, White has always looked taller.

    I could very well be wrong, but I'm just of the opinion that someone ed up the measurements.

  11. #686
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    I was aware of his combine measurements.

    Combine measurements for White w/o shoes: 6'3.25"
    https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2017-18

    For Lonnie w/o shoes: 6'3.75"
    https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/comb...onYear=2018-19

    No way Lonnie is taller than White as these numbers indicate.

    No way White grew, he was already 22.

    Even outside of photos and in real time, White has always looked taller.

    I could very well be wrong, but I'm just of the opinion that someone ed up the measurements.
    Measurements can make or break you at the combine. Clarke dropped like a rock when teams found out that his wingspan wasn’t 7’0”. They are very careful and thorough. The combine measurements are the gold standard, and likely much more accurate than eye balling it from photos.

  12. #687
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Measurements can make or break you at the combine. Clarke dropped like a rock when teams found out that his wingspan wasn’t 7’0”. They are very careful and thorough. The combine measurements are the gold standard, and likely much more accurate than eye balling it from photos.
    Trust me, I hope so. It's not as if I want Lonnie to be shorter.

  13. #688
    Veteran J_Paco's Avatar
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    Trust me, I hope so. It's not as if I want Lonnie to be shorter.
    Then why dispute it? They (meaning the Spurs 4 guards/wings) are clearly all of a similar height. The tallest being either DeJounte or Keldon.

    He's also taller than the group of guys that you've compared him to. And I don't believe his game is similar at all to Williams, Francis or Baron Davis.

    Williams has always been a poor defender his entire career, while Lonnie has shown when locked in he can defend his position. Davis & Francis were both far superior playmakers to Lonnie as well as better at finishing through contact.

    I'd love it if he could drive, finish stronger through contact & become a primary shot creator similar to them, though.

    We'll see.....

    Is Lonnie really that much better in 3s at this age? He's still pretty streaky and hasn't proven he's a sharp shooting ace just yet. It's all just potential so far.
    Steve Francis (Age 22 Season): 34.5% on 4 attempts per
    Baron Davis (Age 21 Season): 31% on 3.3 attempts per
    Lou Williams (Age 21 Season): 35.9% on 1.9 attempts per

    Lonnie Walker IV (Age 21 Season): 40.6% on 1.7 attempts per

    Clearly, Lonnie is the best three - point shooter in the bunch but on the lowest attempts (not a starter, lack of aggression/confidence at times & mostly left to spot - up in corner to wait for a pass) as well.

    I believe he'll need to try to maintain that solid percentage (possibly down to 38% if he adds step back & while receiving a screen) while increasing his volume significantly, but all our young guards/wings need to do that for the their sake & the team.

    We saw a lot more of it from Derrick during the bubble play and I'm hoping Keldon, DeJounte & Lonnie (who all shot a solid percentage) follow suit.
    Last edited by J_Paco; 10-28-2020 at 12:04 PM.

  14. #689
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    Looks like it was posted from a mutual agent

    looks like Lonnie is working on his physique so he can finish those lay ups

  15. #690
    Veteran J_Paco's Avatar
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    looks like Lonnie is working on his physique so he can finish those lay ups
    We'll see, but it could be more mental than physical. Hopefully, he can show more toughness & become adapt at using his off hand to finish more.

  16. #691
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Then why dispute it? They (meaning the Spurs 4 guards/wings) are clearly all of a similar height. The tallest being either DeJounte or Keldon.

    He's also taller than the group of guys that you've compared him to. And I don't believe his game is similar at all to Williams, Francis or Baron Davis.

    Williams has always been a poor defender his entire career, while Lonnie has shown when locked in he can defend his position. Davis & Francis were both far superior playmakers to Lonnie as well as better at finishing through contact.

    I'd love it if he could drive, finish stronger through contact & become a primary shot creator similar to them, though.

    We'll see.....



    Steve Francis (Age 22 Season): 34.5% on 4 attempts per
    Baron Davis (Age 21 Season): 31% on 3.3 attempts per
    Lou Williams (Age 21 Season): 35.9% on 1.9 attempts per

    Lonnie Walker IV (Age 21 Season): 40.6% on 1.7 attempts per

    Clearly, Lonnie is the best three - point shooter in the bunch but on the lowest attempts (not a starter, lack of aggression/confidence at times & mostly left to spot - up in corner to wait for a pass) as well.

    I believe he'll need to try to maintain that solid percentage (possibly down to 38% if he adds step back & while receiving a screen) while increasing his volume significantly, but all our young guards/wings need to do that for the their sake & the team.

    We saw a lot more of it from Derrick during the bubble play and I'm hoping Keldon, DeJounte & Lonnie (who all shot a solid percentage) follow suit.
    Why dispute it?

    Because it's the offseason and there's nothing to talk about lol

    But seriously, just commenting on what I've noticed as far as height

    You mention playmaking as an attribute that sets Baron and Steve from Lonnie, but Lonnie started to show electrifying passes during the bubble.

    And I stated before that Lou Will was a loose comparison. Just brought him up because of his role of scoring in bunches which I could easily see Lonnie do.

  17. #692
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Steve Francis (Age 22 Season): 34.5% on 4 attempts per
    Baron Davis (Age 21 Season): 31% on 3.3 attempts per
    Lou Williams (Age 21 Season): 35.9% on 1.9 attempts per

    Lonnie Walker IV (Age 21 Season): 40.6% on 1.7 attempts per
    Minutes per game tempers these numbers somewhat. Francis played 36.1 MPG, Davis 39.9 MPG (!), and Williams 23.3 MPG in the seasons you mentioned. Meanwhile, Lonnie only played 16.2 MPG last season. A better comparison would be 3PAr, the proportion of a player's shots that are threes.

    For the seasons you used, those numbers were Francis 0.278, Davis 0.286, Williams 0.203, and Walker 0.283.

    Williams didn't really become a huge 3-point chucker until later in his career, when his 3PAr was above 0.430 for 5 straight seasons.

  18. #693
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Minutes per game tempers these numbers somewhat. Francis played 36.1 MPG, Davis 39.9 MPG (!), and Williams 23.3 MPG in the seasons you mentioned. Meanwhile, Lonnie only played 16.2 MPG last season. A better comparison would be 3PAr, the proportion of a player's shots that are threes.

    For the seasons you used, those numbers were Francis 0.278, Davis 0.286, Williams 0.203, and Walker 0.283.

    Williams didn't really become a huge 3-point chucker until later in his career, when his 3PAr was above 0.430 for 5 straight seasons.
    That's like taking Boban's numbers and stretching it. I trusted you, J_Paco

  19. #694
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    looks like Lonnie is working on his physique so he can finish those lay ups
    That's what I'm most focused on next year. Dude has all the athletic ability in the world but he can't finish. He learns some english from TP and he should become an All Star tbh

  20. #695
    Veteran ace3g's Avatar
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    Lonnie also needs to work on change of pace when driving to the basket.

  21. #696
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    That's like taking Boban's numbers and stretching it. I trusted you, J_Paco
    No, it wasn't that bad. I was just trying to make the comparison more apples-to-apples.

    Another thing to consider is that the league average 3PAr this season was 0.384, while in 2009-2010 it was 0.222 and in 1999-2000 it was 0.167. If it felt like Francis and Davis (and mid-career Williams) were huge 3-point chuckers it's because, relative to league average, they were. Lonnie, on the other hand, was well below the league average, as were the Spurs as a team (3PAr of 0.318, 28th in the league).

    I would imagine the 3PAr for guards and wings only is higher than average, which mitigates a bit of the chucking appearance of the first three and makes Lonnie's 3PAr even more below average.

  22. #697
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    That's like taking Boban's numbers and stretching it. I trusted you, J_Paco
    JP didn't say anything that 79er contradicted. Basically all four of those players took a similar amount of threes. With the possible exception of Williams. Walker's 3PT% being better looks stronger now than it did before.

  23. #698
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Lonnie’s always had a great stroke. Because of where he picked for his one and done, he was a target of the defense in a way he never would have been at KY. It was in most of his draft profiles that he pretty much just needed to work on his shot selection, and I think that has been shown in his play.

  24. #699
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    We'll see, but it could be more mental than physical. Hopefully, he can show more toughness & become adapt at using his off hand to finish more.
    nah it’s physical. He’s bad at finishing through contact. Some of those exercises
    in this video should help him with that.

  25. #700
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    Walker's 6-3.75 barefoot measurement has always seemed about right, but White's 6-3.25 measurement never did. He's always looked and played bigger and stronger than his listing.

    I wouldn't read too much into the league's supposed enforcement of real barefoot heights being listed before last season. Some clearly still messed around, like the Raptors listing Gasol as 6-11 and Ibaka as 7-0.


    Exactly - the chain principle. It's especially true in the modern NBA, where players are switching on literally every possession under most defensive schemes, and the impact that a single good-to-great defender has on a team's defense is overshadowed by the impact a bad-to-awful defender has on that same lineup. Yesteryear, you could truly have a "defensive specialist" who you'd assign on the other teams' best players and call it a day. Nowadays, they'll just switch off that great defender, limiting his impact to mostly help defense. It's interesting for sure, and has had a big impact in how (smart) teams build their roster, and the general trend that non-star players are on average much more skilled and better defenders than in years past.
    That's why I made up the term non liability defender. This league has went about as far as possible to curtail or outlaw defense and between that and what you mentioned, to go deep in the playoffs it's exceedingly difficult to get away with liabilities in significant roles unless they're elite offensive players.

    Sure, the Heat did it in a unique setup, but Herro and to a lesser extent Robinson were exposed in the Finals, as James repeatedly abused them on switches and in transition.

    Short of lucking into a superstar, the best chance a team in the Spurs predicament (small/non glamour market that refuses to tank) has of being sustainably good, is assembling a core full of players who have to earn their keep, grow together (continuity + likely chemistry generally = playing hard and unselfish) and may not be exceptional, but are well rounded enough to function as a cohesive unit on both ends. Basically, the Raptoth of the past 4 years.

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