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The predictions by folks like you have a great rep around here.
Senate is currently 66% for the GOP to keep control:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...=2018-forecast
Tough map. That will flip in 2020 though. Two more years of an energized and incandescent left will almost certainly mean that the GOP will face some really tough battles for the Senate.
House forecast has been strongly tilting to the Dems in the last couple of weeks now that campaigning is kicking into high gear.
78% chance the Dems take the House, with better than even odds that takeover will be VERY decisive.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../house/#deluxe
The predictions by folks like you have a great rep around here.
[indifference, mild pity]
Polling data on generic candidates is going from simple victory i.e.+6-7%, to blow out, at 9-10%.The predictions by folks like you have a great rep around here.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
It's just data. No more, no less. The world is probabilistic at every level, this included.
Feel free to man up and provide your own prediction. We all know you won't.
Quinnipiac poll of likely voters:
Cruz 54- O'Rourke 45
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09...iac-poll-says/In the Senate race, Quinnipiac found Cruz has a higher favorability rating than O'Rourke does. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they like Cruz to 43 percent who said they do not, while the split was a more divided 43-42 for O'Rourke.
There is no way Cruz has a 9 point advantage. Internal polling must be showing a much more closer race for him to be panicking like he is.
that it's even that close is reason for Cruz to be worried
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Quinnipeac gets an A- rating from fivethirty eight, with little bias skew.
We always knew what O-Rourke would be a long shot in Texas. Fun to talk about, but barring some massive Democratic surge, unlikely.
That said, we are mobilizing and attempting to get that surge. Most of us are resigned about 2018, but know that two more years of organizing and preparing for 2020 are ahead of us. There will be little slow down in energy or effort.
Everybody I have talked to, without exception is committed to that.
Flores beating Gallego is kind of a big deal in Texas. That used to be a gimme D seat.
True that. Be willing to bet that Flores' name was first on the ballot.
https://www.bexar.org/Do entCenter...lot-PDF?bidId=
Shocker it is.
We will see if he holds it after November.
Gallego had lost twice before in an overlapping district, so there's that. Also, special election and the taint of scandal on the Dem predecessor.
Why The First Name On The Ballot Often Wins
https://www.npr.org/2016/07/27/48757...lot-often-wins
in Australia it's called the "donkey vote"
I'm familiar with it, thanks.
Gotcha. Not saying that is exactly the case here, but for a lot of local races like this one, it is something to keep in the back of one's head when analyzing things.
A factor, to be sure, but "the" factor: I see it unlikely. Necessary, but not sufficient.
Whether this stays an "R" is something to watch for, though. My sense is that this is an outlier, but that is not an answer I am overly confident in.
Ah, the forwarded facebook link.
Democrats will probably not take control of the Senate, until 2020, when a large number of Republicans are up for re-election and few Democrats are.
2 more years of Trump will make the Republican brand look even more than it already is, and we will have two more years of an energized, incandescent resistance movement to build up the kinds of campaign muscle and sinew that translates into serious votes.
last time there was an "incandescent resistance movement" there was a coordinated, multi-state LE crackdown.
thanks, Obama!
ing Russians
So the odds have dropped a little... down to 78% Dem control of congress in the more advanced forecast, from 80% a bit ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/
Silver gives a .3% advantage to Cruz, on the back of Texas' historic tilt being the biggest factor. I think that underlying assumption will change a bit this cycle.
I can tell you for a fact that Hays county has record levels of voter registration for this upcoming election, and I know for certain that our local efforts have been for registration and turnout.
Texas isn't as "red" as it seems, it just that Dems don't vote.
Trump came along and changed that mindset.
While the exact measure of how that effort succeeds will be the election itself, Hays county has had to add some new polling places to accommodate all the new voters. While the GOP will have their share, the stats would seem to indicate the Dems have a lot more low-hanging fruit in their grasp. On balance, I would guess that more Democrats than Republicans make up that population.
Having to pick one or the other, I think Cruz will lose his seat, and it will be close. GOP will keep Texas state government, but with an erosion of majority.
The GOP will keep the House and install Speaker Jim Jordan. They will pick up 5 seats in the Senate.
I am Rolfstradamus!!!
Where is the coverage of Paul Manafort.
I predict NOT GUILTY on all 18 counts!
Did you not know the polls would tighten as we approach election day so that no matter what polling firms can claim they were accurate? It only happens every single election.
I was right on 10 out of 18. That is over 50%. Good enough to make money in Vegas.
No, your prediction was 100% wrong.
You would've lost all your money in Vegas.
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