Reply With Quote
Figure 2: Toss-Ups, according to Inside Elections (IE) and the Cook Political Report (CR)
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018...a-endorse.html
Figure 2: Toss-Ups, according to Inside Elections (IE) and the Cook Political Report (CR)
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018...a-endorse.html
sameFigure 5: Districts Likely Targeted
In the abstract, taking the 23 seats the Democrats need to take to regain control of the House looks doable (see especially the HRC margin of victory or defeat). As ever, the question is whether these Democrats can do that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
Democrats +5 to +8 or so, it varies.
Dems capture almost all toss-ups. +9 (out of 11)
Dems capture all leans dems. +1
Dems capture all tilts dems +3
Dem capture all likely dems +3
This is a solid gain of at least 15 seats.
Capture 1/3 of the tilts GOP +8
Capture 1/6 of the leans GOP +2
Capture 1/12 of the likely GOP +2
Dems up 27 seats, a narrow majority, seems like the most likely result of such a perception deficit.
Still two months to go. I think the possibility of an outlier, i.e. a huge wave with a larger majority for the Dems is quite possible, albeit very unlikely. A lot will depend on who sits this one out.
GOP voters... always vote. There is little there to mine or improve.
The only real question is how successful our Democratic get out the vote efforts are.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/midterms-...111753863.html
Mid-term turnouts for Democrats was way, way, up.
Wisconsin saw a similarly high level of voter turnout at around 950,000 ballots cast – numbers not seen since 2002 - with Democrats again outvoting Republicans by more than 80,000.
Turnout was strong in Democratic strongholds such as Madison, the state capital, and the largest city, Milwaukee, but also in Republican suburbs around Milwaukee.
“If the election were held today, it’s highly unlikely that Trump would carry Wisconsin again,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative commentator and longtime Trump critic.
Democrats making history with trannys, muslims and black women.
I'm definitely getting on board
Not really a prediction. More like a vacuous door-bell ring. But hey, don't let me stop you.
You do you, man.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../house/#deluxe
7 in 10 chance of Dems gaining the house.
Average gain predicted by models:
+32
Median:
+30
I will say this though:
Democrats do not give two s about your vote specifically.
People like you will suck Trumps and vote Republican no matter what we do. Standard GOP voters show up to polls at pretty consistent rates, and at greater rates than Democrats generally.
Democrats win by turning non-voters into voters, and getting more people off the sidelines who may have given up on "business as usual".
Should be an interesting tack. I guess we will get to see. I think Trump's long run effect is going to be ushering in Democratic domination at the national level a bit earlier than would otherwise be the case.
I won't disagree, I am pretty red pilled these days. 2015 Migrant Crisis pushed me over the edge
2008 I voted Obama. Actually was emotional during the inauguration.
2012 didn't vote but would have Ron Paul
2016 was the first time voting conservative in my life
I think your assessment has much truth. But Republicans are also successful at turning immigrants (my family). Especially those that come from family oriented cultures like Latinos.
Atleast in my family, when we started feeling truly American is when we switched to Republican. We felt Democrats are too focused on illegals or nation building overseas. That is why we hate neocons and their warmongering, spreading freedom, toppling dictators. The GOP has changed (at the moment)
I feel better about the prospect of Trump being re-elected than I did last year. But regardless i fully expect a bashlash in 2022. That typically is American politics. One extreme to the other.
The odds of Trump winning a second term are practically nil. He won against the least popular Democratic nominee in modern history by a grand total of 77,000 votes in three states, meaning if 38000 people had voted the other way, he would have lost.
The odds that Trump were going to win in 2016 were narrow, but there to begin with and presidents never are as popular for their second term as they were for the first.
Beat you to it.
Hillary was not as unpopular as you make it seem. She was attempting to become the first female candidate
There is still plenty of time but Democrats need a candidate, a message, a direction.
I think since election night the Democrats have gone backwards
Even if Dems win the House, I bet some Dems will still votes with the Repug herd to block real progress.
and then there's the Senate
and then there's Trash to veto anything the Dems miraculously pass.
If Dems try to refund what the Repugs have be defunding for 8 years, then the Repugs will cry and whine "deficit"
Hillary was deeply unpopular, and had the highest negative ratings of any modern candidate, Trump aside. Most Democrats were unenthused.
That is what the polling data showed.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-1131.html
"Republicans are quietly hoping the Democrats will win the House.
If Trump is impeached,
their thinking goes (but not convicted in the Senate, as above),
they think it will assure his re-election in 2020.
This counterintuitive notion is based on their experience with Bill Clinton
whose popularity reached new heights
as Republicans doggedly pursued him through the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
They're assuming that the country would be
so impressed by Trump's heroicsurvival
that his approval rating would similarly skyrocket and he would win re-election easily."
https://www.alternet.org/historic-mi...e-gop-midterms
Clinton connected with people, was very good politician, and had been easily re-elected twice.
Trash connects with no one, is the anti-politician for hate, paranoia, racism, and lost the people's vote by 3M and with Pootin's help
I think there's a good chance that the support for Trump brings more conservatives who normally don't vote in mid-terms out in November. I'm seeing a lot more discussion about the mid-terms among those that I know (mostly conservative) about going to vote. Ironically, the talk from liberals/media about the upcoming "Blue Wave" is energizing them to go vote in the mid-terms. These numbers probably don't show up in the primary voting stats because they'll vote conservative no matter who the party puts up there.
Also, a lot of the Hispanic people that I know who normally voted Democrat are very attracted/enthusiastic about Trump. I think you'll see a lot more support from 3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants who disagree with the Dem position on ILLEGAL immigration.
"3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants"
... agree with racist Trash/Miller/JeBo and their Schutzstaffel's family destruction, forced orphaning of kids?, shutting down legal immigration, deporting long-time legal immigrants, reneging on immigrants serving in the military in earn citizenship?
She absolutely was unpopular, her attempting to become first female president means absolutely nothing because women love tanking other women's chances at anything.
The Dems are waiting for the midterms to see what they can get away with in terms of any 2020 message, candidate, direction.
The Dems haven't gone backwards, this country has.
That's the at ude that let him get elected in the first place
You really are discounting the power of modern day neo feminism and stereotyping women. They don't think that way as much as you want to believe...Why is the country going backwards?
her favorables were garbage throughout the electoral process
https://news.gallup.com/poll/224330/...g-new-low.aspx
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
